River Flood Warning 133, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
527 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018/

Skies are cloudy across the forecast area early this morning with
temperatures ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Some patchy
areas of fog have develop across the region with Jonesboro
currently reporting 1/4 mile visibility. Unless some additional
sites report some dense fog, will not be issuing a Dense Fog
Advisory at this time. A few light rain showers are moving across
north Mississippi at this time. Currently, a warm front extends
across north Texas through northern Louisiana and into central
Mississippi.

This front will move slowly north today. Scattered showers are
expected to develop ahead of the warm front today and move into
mainly western sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will be
above normal today with highs in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.
The warm front will move through the forecast area tonight
bringing more showers. Temperatures will remain relatively mild
tonight with lows Thursday morning in the low to mid 50s.

By Thursday, a cold front will be moving into western Arkansas.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front
and move through the region. Some gusty south winds will also be
possible on Thursday and a Wind Advisory may be needed.
Temperatures will be rather pleasant for late December with highs
in the mid 60s. The cold front will move through the region
Thursday night with more showers and isolated thunderstorms. There
could be a strong or possibly severe thunderstorm over north
Mississippi with damaging winds as the main threat.

By Friday, the cold front will be east of the region with rain
ending across eastern sections of the forecast area. Temperatures
will be cooler on Friday but highs will remain at or near normal
levels. Dry weather will remain through Friday night as high
pressure briefly builds into the region.

Southwest flow aloft will bring several upper level disturbances
ti the region over the weekend with more showers expected both
Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be a little cooler over the
weekend with reading dropping to below normal levels.

Another cold front will drop south from the northern plains on
Monday and then move through the forecast area Monday night and
Tuesday bringing more rain to the region.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFs

Messy TAF set this cycle. IFR to LIFR conditions due to low clouds
and fog early with vicinity showers near JBR MEM and MKL will
gradually improve to VFR conditions by midday, but conditions
will deteriorate again overnight Generally light East winds today
will increase overnight and shift more southeasterly as the next
round of showers approaches from the west. All sites should see
rain on station by morning. Wind speeds overnight are expected to
be sustained 15-20mph with gusts to 30, strongest at JBR. LLWS is
also expected overnight, continuing into tomorrow.

AMD NOT SKED at TUP for missing visibility.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
330 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-271130-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
330 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Strong, gusty south winds are expected Thursday. Wind gusts may
exceed 35 mph at times.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday mainly south
of Interstate 40. Isolated damaging winds are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.