Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Memphis, TN

884 
WGUS74 KMEG 261303
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
803 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

MSC057-081-115-117-141-145-261345-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-180926T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pontotoc MS-Union MS-Itawamba MS-Lee MS-Tishomingo MS-Prentiss MS-
803 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT FOR
PONTOTOC...UNION...NORTHERN ITAWAMBA...LEE...SOUTHERN TISHOMINGO AND
PRENTISS COUNTIES...

At 758 AM CDT, The heavy rain which prompted the warning has 
decreased. Light to moderate rain extended from New Albany and 
Algoma, eastward to Belmont. Doppler Radar estimates 4 to 6 inches 
fell in the warning area.

Although the heavy rain has diminished, runoff and flooding will 
continue through the morning. Creeks, streams, ditches, and poor 
drainage areas will most likely be affected. If you are driving in 
in northeast Mississippi this morning, be extremely careful and 
watch out for flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3438 8817 3421 8864 3407 8881 3408 8924
      3459 8924 3460 8872 3470 8833 3470 8812

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
419 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Well it's raining again, for the sixth day in a row. A complex of
showers and thunderstorms developed around midnight and continues
to train over northeast Mississippi. Latest Dual-Pol rainfall
estimates are 3.5 to over 4 inches with more on the way as low
level moisture convergence continues ahead of the main front. The
flash flood threat will persist and possibly worsen for that area
throughout the day. Flash flood guidance has already been
exceeded and any more rain will only exacerbate the threat. Will
add flash flood potential to HWO to that area.

Latest surface analysis places a cold front near Poplar Bluff and
southwest into Batesville, Arkansas. Some showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring along the front at this hour. The
front is expected to push into northeast Arkansas within the next
hour or so and push southeast through the majority of the Mid-
South by this evening. Forcing along the front will be not be very
strong, so mostly moderate showers and scattered thunder will
accompany the passage. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall
mainly over northeast Mississippi and portions of west Tennessee
near the Tennessee River. Once again, the flash flood threat will
be the threat to watch today.

After the front moves through, the main story will be the cool
air that builds into the region throughout the day. Most areas
will be experiencing their high at this hour, with steady and
eventually cooling temperatures throughout the day. Expect highs
to only top out in the 70s areawide. The frontal boundary is
expected to slow down and stall as a weak low pressure system
tracks along the front from the ArkLaMiss to Birmingham, Alabama
tonight. This will keep slight chances for showers and possibly a
thunderstorm in the forecast overnight for portions of north
Mississippi. Elsewhere, expect post-frontal stratus to move in
behind the front and temperatures to fall into the upper 50s and
lower 60s by Thursday morning.

A shortwave trof will pivot through the Lower Mississippi Valley
on Thursday. Any mid and upper level moisture will be squeezed out
in the form of light showers tomorrow. Went ahead and increased
POPs to chance for areas along and south of the I-40 corridor. QPF
totals are expected to remain low, so flooding will not be an
issue. With the enhanced cloud cover and rain, temperatures will
only reach the low to mid 70s areawide.

Friday will be the first of a few consecutive days of gorgeous
weather. Sunshine will finally return to the majority of the Mid-
South as surface high pressure becomes nearly centered over the
area. Temperatures will start mid 50s to lower 60s with highs
reaching into the 70s areawide. A reinforcing front will move into
the area Friday night, but no rain is expected with the passage.
Saturday will be similar to Friday with temperatures in the 70s
and lows in the 50s and 60s.

High pressure will slide east on Sunday and set up return flow
over the area. As a result, temperatures will climb back into the
80s with increased humidity. A warm front and shortwave are
expected to lift north across the area on Monday. This will kick
off some showers and thunderstorms during the day. Beyond this
Tuesday, the models differ with respect to a midweek cold front.
Went ahead with a blend through this period, with highs in the 80s
and low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms each day.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

Approaching cold front will serve as a focus for additional
VCSH/VCTS overnight into Thursday morning, VFR conditions
expected to deteriorate to MVFR conditions as the front passes
through sites and anticipated to remain MVFR through most of the
period. S winds 5-10 kts will veer N/NNE with frontal passage and
average around 9-11 kts with a few higher gusts possible on
Wednesday.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
431 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-271130-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
431 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Flash flooding is possible over northeast Mississippi through
this afternoon as a slow-moving cold front moves across the area.

Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms may produce
brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

AC3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
535 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N NEW HARMONY         34.41N 88.92W
09/26/2018                   UNION              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 178 EAST IS FLOODED BETWEEN COUNTY ROADS 205 AND
            216.

&&

AJC