Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
304 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Moderate to heavy precipitation is going on across the northern
counties...where storms are likely to train for the next few hours.
Three hourly rainfall amounts already approaching 3 inches across
portions of Craighead and Greene Counties. An additional 1 to 2
inches would overfill ditches and cause minor street flooding.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion indicates a slight chance for
flash flooding today. Farther south only occasional light
sprinkles producing a trace have been tracking through the region.
Current temperatures ranging from the mid 70s where precipitation
is falling...to a few readings in the lows 80s in north
Mississippi. Winds have been south at 5 to 10mph...with gusts
approaching 30 mph in heavier convection.

For today through Saturday...models are in good agreement that the
Midsouth will remain unsettled with multiple periods of clouds and
precipitation. This due to an active northwesterly upper flow. IR
satellite showing current convection in the northern counties
anchored in the base of a passing trough...some breaks are
currently seen with this activity...so an extensive flood threat
is not anticipated. CAMs show cloud tops warming after sunrise as
well. Activity will likely re-fire in the northeastern counties
after 12 pm...and again in the western counties this evening.
Coverage will become more isolated late tonight.

A stronger closed low sinking southeast over Nebraska will
quickly begin affecting the region tomorrow through Saturday.
This disturbance is expected to bring better rain chances over the
central and southern Midsouth counties where rain is more
welcome. Pockets of rainfall amounts of 5+ inches over the next
three days can't be ruled out in the north...with the south
generally in the 1-3 inch range. The region is under a marginal
risk for severe storms today and tomorrow as well...with severe
indices indicating the potential across the southern counties
on Saturday. Plan on including both an isolated severe storm and
localized flash flood wording in the morning hazardous weather
outlook. Temperatures could be above seasonal normals today in the
I-40 corridor and points south where more sun will be seen...in
fact the NAM MOS shows a high of 97F in Memphis with heat indices
topping 105F. Believe that is a bit to much...leaning closer to
the GFS MOS of 90F. Over the north thicker cloud cover and
rainfall will keep highs in the mid and upper 80s. Slightly cooler
readings over the central and south for Friday and Saturday.

Sunday through midweek...a third shortwave will track southeast
from the northern Rockies...affecting more of the Midsouth on
Monday then any other day. Rain chances will subside across the
north on Sunday...with scattered coverage in the south.
Temperatures near normal. Starting Sunday night the next complex
of precipitation will slide east from the Ozarks and persist
into Monday night as a cold front approaches the area. A drier
airmass will slowly infiltrate the Midsouth on Tuesday suppressing
convection to the southern counties. Wednesday and Thursday of
next week appear to be dry and pleasantly mild.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFs

A few scattered showers are possible overnight at MEM, MKL, and
VCTS at JBR. Otherwise, it appears the best chances for the
development of showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday
afternoon during peak daytime heating, and even better chances as
a front begins to come down late Thursday night towards the end
and past this TAF cycle.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
304 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-171015-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
304 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe storms will be possible across the Mid-
South today and tonight. The primary hazards will be gusty winds
and localized heavy rainfall/flash-flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few strong to severe storms will be possible across the Mid-
South Friday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The
primary hazards will be gusty winds and localized heavy
rainfall/flash-flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

JAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1143 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

ARZ018-026-027-MOZ113-160530-
Poinsett AR-Greene AR-Craighead AR-Dunklin MO-
1143 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Poinsett County in eastern Arkansas...
South central Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
Eastern Craighead County in eastern Arkansas...
Southwestern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

At 1143 PM CDT...strong thunderstorms were producing winds to 45 mph
was located along a line extending from near Brookland to near Bay.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Poinsett...south central Greene...eastern
Craighead and southwestern Dunklin Counties should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3600 9025 3600 9029 3564 9029 3561 9067
      3597 9059 3607 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 253DEG 24KT 3594 9055 3570 9060