Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
933 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

.UPDATE...

Temperatures around the Mid-South are in the 70s at this hour. A
few showers and thunderstorms are still ongoing across the
southern portion of the forecast area, aided by a weak shortwave
and slow moving surface boundary. This activity will likely
continue through the next hour or so before pushing south of the
area. Clear skies and weak surface winds will allow for some
patchy radiational fog to develop by early morning, especially in
areas that received measurable rain.

Forecast is on track with no major changes needed at this time.

AC3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018/

UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a weak
quasi-stationary boundary across the Mid-South. Meanwhile, GOES-16
Water Vapor Satellite trends indicate an upper level low centered
over Southern Indiana. As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across the
Mid-South are in the 80s to lower 90s at most locations.

A weak stationary boundary is expected to gradually drift south
across the remainder of the Mid-South tonight. A few isolated
showers or thunderstorms will be possible mainly this evening
across North Mississippi.

Short term models indicate another weak cold front will drop into
the Lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night then become quasi-stationary Sunday and gradually
wash out across the region through Tuesday as shortwave ridging
builds in somewhat across the region. Isolated to perhaps
scattered convective chances will exist, especially during the
peak heating afternoon/early evening hours.

Long term models indicate another mid-level trough will move
across portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys
towards mid/late next week, bringing increased shower and
thunderstorm chances to the Mid-South.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

VFR and light winds to prevail for the late evening and overnight
MEM cargo ops. To the east, patchy mist again possible at MKL and
TUP, where calm winds will prevail.

18Z NAM Nest model depicts VCTS at MKL midafternoon Saturday,
associated with a weak disturbance dropping south out of KY. MEM
likely too deep into the upper ridge on Saturday to warrant a
VCTS at this time, but stray TS cannot be ruled out over the
eastern TRACON Saturday afternoon.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
351 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-111100-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
351 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

SJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
623 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

MSZ023-102345-
Chickasaw MS-
623 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 623 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds to 40 mph was
located over Trebloc, or 7 miles southeast of Houston, moving east
at 10 mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Chickasaw County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3376 8898 3394 8901 3396 8872 3381 8873
      3381 8893 3375 8893 3375 8895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 274DEG 10KT 3385 8888

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
640 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

MSZ024-110015-
Monroe MS-
640 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR...

Central Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 640 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail and
winds 45 mph was located near Prairie, or 8 miles west of Aberdeen,
moving east at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in central Monroe County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3377 8872 3395 8872 3394 8822 3375 8825
      3375 8832 3372 8833
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 275DEG 20KT 3386 8869