Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Memphis, TN

208 
WGUS74 KMEG 232021
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
321 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

ARC077-107-MSC027-232031-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180523T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lee AR-Phillips AR-Coahoma MS-
321 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LEE...EASTERN PHILLIPS
AND COAHOMA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3399 9066 3412 9066 3412 9083 3477 9096
      3473 9066 3421 9045 3399 9045

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1241 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1210 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

UPDATE...
Diurnal convection developing. Have expanded the forecast area
for precipitation to the north and northeast to account for radar
trends.

 Belles

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Currently...Weak high pressure prevails at the surface and aloft
across the region this morning. Skies are partly cloudy with
patchy fog across mainly eastern sections this morning. A few
areas are reporting 1/2 mile or less and will continue to monitor
for the possibility of a dense fog advisory. Temps are mild with
readings from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Today and Thursday...A very weak back door cold front will be
situated just south of the region. Slightly drier air, as
evidenced by lower PWs and perhaps slightly lower dewpoints, will
work into NE sections of the Mid-South over the next couple of
days. This should keep the best chances for afternoon/early
evening showers and thunderstorms over southern and western
sections over the next couple of afternoons where SBCAPES will
climb above 2500 J/KG. Soundings continue to depict very weak
winds through the column so pulse type convection will continue to
be the rule in areas where storms form. Damaging winds will be the
main threat with any storm that becomes severe along with
localized heavy rain. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s each
day. Patchy fog is possible each night with lows in the mid 60s
to lower 70s.

Friday...A mid level shortwave will move into the Mid-Mississippi
Valley and the upper ridge will weaken. This should result in an
increase in coverage across the area. Highs remain in the mid to
upper 80s.

Weekend into early next week...A disturbance over the Gulf of
Mexico is forecast to move north over the Gulf Coast states this
weekend and eventually over/near the Mid-South early next week.
The GFS continues to favor a track more to the east while the
ECMWF is further west. Either way this system will draw a lot of
moisture into the the region with increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms into next week. Should continue to see the a few
strong to severe storms as the airmass destabilizes each
afternoon though the threat will depend on the track and evolution
of the system. PWs will climb toward 2 inches so heavy rain will
also be a possibility.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Short-lived
up-and-down thunderstorms are expected near JBR...MEM...and TUP
this afternoon, with quickly diminishing activity after sundown.
Winds will remain light and from the east through much of the
period, except near thunderstorms where winds may gust and change
directions erratically. Clearing skies overnight will allow for
some light fog to develop again, especially near MKL and TUP.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
526 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-241230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
526 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A dense fog advisory is in effect for parts of West Tennessee and
Northeast Mississippi until 9 am CDT this morning.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible south of a
line from Pocahontas Arkansas to Blytheville Arkansas to Savannah
Tennessee, mainly during the afternoon hours. The primary threats
will any severe storm will be damaging winds, lightning and heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
during the afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.