Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Memphis, TN

289 
WGUS74 KMEG 222209
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
509 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TNC079-230015-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-180523T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Henry TN-
509 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
HENRY COUNTY...

At 509 PM CDT, Doppler Radar estimates 2 to 4 inches of rain has 
occurred over the past 2 hours.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Paris, McKenzie, Paris Landing State Park, Springville, Routon,
Henry, Mansfield, Haigler Ridge, Manleyville, Old Springville,
Buchanan, India, Sunnyside, Van Dyke, Spring Creek, Porter Court and
Big Sandy Unit Tennessee National Wildlife Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3636 8810 3631 8810 3626 8808 3625 8810
      3622 8811 3622 8814 3617 8817 3615 8817
      3612 8821 3615 8821 3615 8853 3628 8852
      3650 8808 3649 8805 3644 8806 3636 8799

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
333 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon indicates a weak
cold front stretching from the Ohio River Valley back through
Southeast Missouri, North Central Arkansas and Western Missouri.
GOES-16 Water Vapor Satellite trends indicate low level moist air
being advected up from the Gulf of Mexico. Regional-WSR 88D
trends indicate the greatest amount of shower and thunderstorm
coverage occurring across areas east of the Mississippi River.
As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 80s,
with cooler temperatures in the 70s where showers and
thunderstorms have already occurred.

A warm, moist, and unstable atmosphere across the forecast area
today has resulted in the development of showers and
thunderstorms. Surface based CAPE values between 3000-3500 J/kg,
0-6 km Bulk shear values around 20 kts at best indicate pulse type
showers and thunderstorms remaining the predominant mode of
convection. These values above including precipitable water values
approaching 2 inches suggest a few strong to perhaps severe
thunderstorms are possible from wet microbursts with damaging
winds and localized heavy rainfall as the primary threats along
with a secondary threat for hail.

Short term models indicate the surface boundary will begin to move
south across the forecast area into Thursday with convective
chances becoming more isolated in coverage at best then recent
days and occurring primarily south of I-40.

Latest long term models indicate the potential for an upper level
low or a tropical system to develop in the Gulf of Mexico near the
Northwest Florida Coast and move north or northwest into the
Southeast United States and Lower Mississippi Valley. The GFS for
the past several runs has had an eastern bias while the ECMWF has
been more consistent with a westerly track near
Mississippi/Louisiana/Alabama. These trends suggest a greater potential
for showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Lower
Mississippi Valley for the upcoming Memorial Day weekend into
early next week. Its still a bit early to assess any severe
weather threats including heavy rainfall but will continue to
monitor in subsequent forecasts as models continue to converge on
a solution. Stay tuned...

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

Mainly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. The
exception will be temporary VSBY and CIG reductions near showers
and thunderstorms. The best chance of convection will be near
MEM...MKL...and TUP as a weak front moves south across the area.

Winds will generally be light and variable through the entire
period. Any site that stays clear overnight will have the
potential for at least some light to moderate MVFR fog.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
856 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-231600-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
856 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon into the early evening. The primary threats with any
severe storm will be damaging winds, hail up to one inch and
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
during the afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
118 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TNZ053-091-221845-
Chester TN-McNairy TN-
118 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Chester County in southwestern Tennessee...
Central McNairy County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 118 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Masseyville, or 9
miles northwest of Selmer, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southwestern Chester and central McNairy Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3524 8837 3506 8848 3524 8879 3525 8878
      3540 8870 3532 8839 3530 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 296DEG 11KT 3529 8867

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
128 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

TNZ052-221900-
Madison TN-
128 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Madison County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 128 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Bemis, or near
Jackson, moving east at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Madison County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3562 8861 3557 8862 3553 8864 3549 8868
      3547 8872 3550 8890 3568 8888 3570 8861
      3565 8861 3564 8860 3563 8860
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 275DEG 11KT 3559 8881

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
203 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

MSZ014-221930-
Union MS-
203 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR...

Eastern Union County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 203 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Keownville, or near
New Albany, moving east at 10 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in eastern Union County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3449 8874 3449 8879 3439 8879 3439 8882
      3436 8883 3436 8886 3446 8905 3460 8899
      3460 8874
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 289DEG 8KT 3453 8894

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
344 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

MSZ001-002-TNZ088-089-222130-
Marshall MS-DeSoto MS-Fayette TN-Shelby TN-
344 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northeastern DeSoto County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southwestern Fayette County in southwestern Tennessee...
Southeastern Shelby County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 343 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Olive Branch,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern Marshall...northeastern DeSoto...southwestern
Fayette and southeastern Shelby Counties should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3496 8993 3512 8984 3503 8945 3478 8958
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 293DEG 13KT 3501 8981