Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Memphis, TN

420 
WGUS74 KMEG 031940
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
240 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

ARC075-121-031946-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-180503T1945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Randolph AR-Lawrence AR-
240 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR RANDOLPH AND NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended for the time being thus the Flash Flood 
Warning will be allowed to expire. Additional showers and 
thunderstorms will push into the area by late this afternoon into 
the early evening hours and may pose another flash flood threat. 
Stay tuned for any potential warnings.

LAT...LON 3650 9079 3649 9077 3643 9078 3642 9077
      3630 9076 3629 9080 3628 9081 3601 9135
      3623 9135 3624 9133 3624 9126 3633 9126
      3633 9128 3637 9128 3639 9131 3642 9131
      3642 9135 3647 9136 3648 9140 3650 9141

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1103 AM CDT Thu May 3 2018

.UPDATE...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to train across portions of
Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel this morning.
Additional convection is moving eastward out of Oklahoma. The
latest run of the HRRR brings the convection into Eastern Arkansas
and the Missouri Bootheel possibly approaching the Mississippi
River by 23-00Z(6-7 PM). Will make some minor adjustments to cloud
cover and POPS. Also, may tweak temperatures across Northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel(in locations where the rain is
training).

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT Thu May 3 2018/

Skies are mostly cloudy across the forecast area early this
morning with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. An
area of thunderstorms was moving across northern Arkansas at this
time and will move into northeast Arkansas in a couple of hours.
These thunderstorms originally develop over western Oklahoma and
west Texas on Wednesday.

The thunderstorms that are moving across northern Arkansas will
continue to move east and slowly weaken but not before they reach
northwest sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will once
again be on the warm side with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Another round of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
southern plains this afternoon and head toward the region tonight.
The best chance of thunderstorms will be across northeast Arkansas
and the Missouri bootheel. Some of these thunderstorms could
become severe with large hail and damaging winds as the main
threats. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows
Friday morning in the mid to upper 60s.

By Friday, a cold front will be moving into western Arkansas with
more thunderstorms expected to develop ahead of the front and move
into the forecast area. Temperatures will be a little cooler with
highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s. The cold front will move
through the forecast area Friday night with more thunderstorms
expected to move through the region. Temperatures will be a little
cooler Friday night with lows Saturday morning in the low to mid
60s. By Saturday, the cold front will be moving into central
Mississippi with thunderstorms still expected over eastern and
southern sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will be
cooler on Saturday with highs in the mid 70s.

High pressure will briefly build into the region by Saturday night
bringing dry weather and seasonal weather for Saturday night and
Sunday. Another cold front will move through the region Sunday
night and Monday with more thunderstorms possible ahead of the
front. High pressure will return to the region by Monday night
bringing another period of dry weather and seasonal temperatures
for Monday night through Wednesday.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF set

It appears a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms will
impact the JBR area over the next w4 hours...with storms staying
to the North and West of MKL, MEM and TUP. Locally gusty wind and
MVFR vis is possible in association with any on station
thunderstorms. Will watch closely for any storms that develop
farther East to impact MEM, but for now will not include any
precip in the TAF for the next 24 hours and VCSH before noon
tomorrow. Winds will remain southerly, strengthening to around
10-14kt today with higher gusts and around 10kt overnight.

30

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1140 AM CDT Thu May 3 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-041845-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
1140 AM CDT Thu May 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will move into Eastern Arkansas and
the Missouri Bootheel this afternoon and will approach the
Mississippi River during the early evening hours before dying out.
The main threat from these storms would be damaging winds and
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few strong thunderstorms are possible across the entire Mid
South Friday night into Saturday. Gusty winds and small hail will
be possible with the strongest storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon across Eastern
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel.

KRM