Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
549 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018/

Currently, an ongoing areal flood event is occurring across the
Mid-South. Latest MRMS QPE estimates that 1 to 1.5 inches of rain
has fallen over the past six hours. Even though those totals sound
relatively low, flash flood guidance over much of the river
basins is less than an inch over just 3 hours. This is due to the
heavily saturated soils resulting in excessive runoff. Many local
rivers, in addition to the Mississippi River, continue to rise
into flood and moderate flood stages at this time. Not many
reports of flooding overnight, but that may be due to the lack of
people out and about. Areal flooding continues to be the
frontrunner, but flash flooding could really ramp up over the next
2 to 3 hours as a band of heavier rain sets up over north
Mississippi. Hi-Res models differ slightly with solutions, but
another 1 to 2 inches is not out of the question. Will monitor
that area for a potential warning. Elsewhere, flash flood warnings
exist across much of east-central Arkansas, southwest Tennessee,
and northwest portions of Mississippi.

Latest GOES east low level water vapor shows a shortwave trof
currently over the Kansas and Oklahoma border pushing slowly east.
This wave is forecast to traverse eastward over the Mid-South
through about the noon hour before lifting out by early evening.
Simultaneously, a surface cold front will push through the Mid-
South through late afternoon. The heaviest rainfall is expected to
fall ahead of the front through the late morning hours. About
another three quarters of an inch to one inch is possible over
north Mississippi, with less than a quarter of an inch further
north. Light showers will be possible again along the front as it
pushes through the Mid-South through sundown, but accumulations
are expected to be very low. The flood watch looks to be in good
shape with the expiration time of 12PM.

Surface high pressure will build into the Mid-South Friday and
remain over the area through Sunday. This will bring us a much
needed break from the rain. Temperatures will remain slightly
below normal during day with readings in the 50s and lows will
bottom out in the 30s both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Saturday
morning will have the greatest chance of frost and freezing
temperatures, especially in areas of West Tennessee. Patchy frost
will also be possible across much of the Mid-South each morning.
Sunday will warm up into the 60s across much of the area ahead of
the next approaching system.

It should be noted that river flooding will continue across the
entire Mid-South through at least this weekend, as many rivers
are forecast to crest at some point this weekend or remain in an
elevated state. Will make mention of the continued river flooding
in the HWO through the weekend.

The next chance of rain will arrive Sunday night as a large
negatively tilted trof lifts across the Central Plains. An
associated surface cold front will swing through the Mid-South
through early Tuesday morning. Not much moisture return is
expected ahead of the front so rainfall totals will likely remain
below an inch. The Mid-South will remain situated in northwest
flow aloft through next weekend with slightly below normal
temperatures expected.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION.../12z TAFs/

A mix of VFR to MVFR cigs and vsbys this morning along with light
to moderate rain. Cigs should gradually lower to MVFR by mid
morning before becoming VFR later this afternoon as rain ends from
northwest to southeast behind a cold front. Southwest winds will
become northwesterly and gusty behind the cold front.

Winds should gradually diminish this evening as skies become
clear.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until noon CST today for Craighead-Crittenden-Cross-
     Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch until noon CST today for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-
     Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flood Watch until noon CST today for Benton TN-Carroll-Chester-
     Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-Hardin-
     Haywood-Henderson-Lauderdale-Madison-McNairy-Shelby-Tipton.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
511 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-021315-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
511 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A flood watch remains in effect for the majority of the Mid-
South through Noon today. All types of flooding will be possible
including: river, areal, and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

All area rivers and tributaries will remain elevated through at
least this weekend. Many are in flood stage or will rise to flood
stage over the next couple of days. As a result, areal flooding
near rivers will continue and may worsen.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

AC3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
519 AM CST THU MAR 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 AM     FLOOD            ROSEMARK                35.36N 89.77W
03/01/2018                   SHELBY             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BRUNSWICK AND BARRET CREEK ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

CJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST THU MAR 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 AM     FLOOD            WEST MEMPHIS            35.15N 90.18W
03/01/2018                   CRITTENDEN         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EASTBOUND SPLIT OF I-55 AND I-40 IS FLOODED. ALL LANES
            TEMPORARILY BLOCKED.

&&

CJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
525 AM CST THU MAR 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 AM     FLOOD            WALLS                   34.95N 90.13W
03/01/2018                   DESOTO             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NAIL ROAD FLOODED BETWEEN GOODMAN AND CHURCH ROADS.

&&

CJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
537 AM CST THU MAR 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 AM     FLOOD            MILLINGTON              35.33N 89.89W
03/01/2018                   SHELBY             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD FLOODED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SOUTHKNOLL AND
            WESTKNOLL ROAD.

&&

CJC