Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
310 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain event remains on track for tonight, as showers and
thunderstorms focus along nearly stationary 925mb front over
northwest MS and far southwest TN. This front will oscillate a
bit, lifting north this evening as frontal wave develops over
east central AR in response to a midlevel shortwave lifting
through the Ozarks. Heaviest rainfall will likely be focused ahead
of this frontal wave after 9 PM CST over east AR, transitioning
east into southwest TN and northeast MS into the early overnight.
Training of heavier rain cores will be likely during the late
evening and early overnight, given the limited frontal movement.

Following the passage of the Ozarks shortwave and frontal wave,
surface front will begin to push south through north MS in the
predawn hours Thursday, with periods of light to moderate rain
occurring up to the I-40 corridor. A few light showers may
persist south of I-40 into early afternoon, with rain amounts
generally less than a tenth of an inch. Clearing skies should then
follow Thursday evening.

Overall, 12Z GFS and ECMWF event total rain amounts were down
slightly earlier model runs, but still sufficient in crease
flooding threat given the already saturated soils and bankfull or
higher river stages.

Relatively tranquil and mild weather will prevail from Friday
through the weekend, as an upper level ridge prevails. This will
give smaller creeks and streams time to fall, though some
backwater flooding will likely continue in the tributaries to the
MS River.

This ridge will lift off to Ohio Valley and Great Lakes by Sunday
evening, as a compact low lifts into the plains. This low will
take on a negatively- tilted orientation and eject into the Great
Lakes by Monday night. The associated surface low will remain in
close proximity to the 500mb low over the upper Midwest, while a
trailing cold front extends south through the middle and lower MS
River valley. Low level return flow not too impressive ahead of
this cold front and the GFS only depicts a narrow corridor of
lower 50s dewpoints lifting into the Midsouth on Monday. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms should exit by Monday evening, driven
east and replaced by a midlevel dry slot.

Fair and seasonal weather to then prevail next Tuesday and
Wednesday, under low amplitude northwest flow aloft.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF cycle

Low clouds will remain over the forecast area for the entire
forecast period. Periods of rain with some isolated thunderstorms
will occur during the forecast period as well. Winds will be
mainly from the south at 5 to 10 knots for much of the forecast
period.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Craighead-Crittenden-
     Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Lauderdale-Madison-McNairy-Shelby-
     Tipton.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
339 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-011145-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
339 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A flood watch remains in effect for the majority of the Mid-
South. 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts are
expected through midnight tonight. All types of flooding will be
possible including: River, Areal, and occasional flash flooding.

In addition, a couple strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are
expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, mainly across
southeast Arkansas into Northwest Mississippi. Damaging winds are
the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A flood watch will remain in effect for the majority of the Mid-
through noon Thursday. Another 1 to 2 inches with locally higher
amounts are expected and will likely lead to additional flooding
problems.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

AC3