Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
604 PM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Have updated the zones to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch #400
until 1 am CDT Tuesday for portions of the central and eastern
Permian Basin.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 551 PM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Sfc flow will back overnight as the upper trough finally moves
thru West Texas/SE NM, accompanied by a last line of convection.
Models remain in disagreement on placement/timing, but judging
from WV movement of the trough, bulk of convection should be in
the06-10Z time range. Forecast sounding suggest cigs will stay
VFR except KMAF, which should be MVFR. However, vsby in direct
convection could drop to LIFR. Skies scour out behind the trough
after 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough centered near the 4 Corners region this morning moving
east into CO and NM tonight. The leading edge of this trough will
swing onto the plains Wednesday as a secondary surge dives down
out of the NW to reinforce it. By early Thursday the next upper
trough moves down across CA developing into a closed low off the
coast by Friday moving down to Baja over the weekend. Will have to
also watch Pacific Hurricane Sergio coming across Mexico on
Friday.

Had some morning showers around the area with the first round of
storms moving across the Central Permian Basin by midday.  May get a
couple bands of storms before main/heaviest rainfall moves through
tonight as the upper trough swings across.  Have raised pops
tonight to the 70 to 90 percent range for most locations.

Model qpf starts the rain tonight out west over Eddy and Culberson
in the 03-06z time and develops it into a line of storms that moves
across the Western Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos by 09z and into
the Central Permian Basin by 12z.  The Flash FLood Watch remains in
effect through tonight for the Permian Basin... portions of SE NM...
as well as the Trans Pecos.  Have added Loving... Ward... and
Brewster to the watch.  After tonight the rain chances will shift
east Tuesday... could need the watch extended into tomorrow for the
eastern CWA.  Wednesday looks to be the lull day before pops begin
to return on Thursday and increase through next weekend as remains
of Sergio move up into the SW.  Have thunderstorms each day in the
extended forecast.

Expect cooler temps the next few days with highs generally in the
70s with 80s along the Rio Grande.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     59  76  51  74 /  90  60  10  10
Carlsbad                       53  74  46  76 /  80  10   0   0
Dryden                         66  82  56  83 /  80  40  10   0
Fort Stockton                  57  76  51  78 /  80  30  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 48  67  47  70 /  80  10   0   0
Hobbs                          51  72  45  74 /  80  20  10   0
Marfa                          47  70  40  75 /  80  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  75  51  75 /  90  40  10  10
Odessa                         58  75  51  75 /  90  30  10   0
Wink                           55  76  50  77 /  80  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-
     Upton-Ward-Winkler.

&&

44/80/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
159 PM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-091900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
159 PM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018 /1259 PM MDT Mon Oct 8 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the region, with
coverage increasing this evening and overnight. Damaging winds and
large hail are the primary threats, and an isolated tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. There is potential for widespread damaging winds
overnight as a line of storms moves eastward across the area.

Heavy rain will accompany storms that develop, with cell training
likely tonight. Thus, the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the
Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend Area, and Lea county.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
926 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S BIG SPRING          32.21N 101.48W
10/08/2018                   Howard             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RANCH ROAD 33 CLOSED OFF OF HWY 87 DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

SCOTT.KLEEBAUER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
937 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 S BIG SPRING         32.11N 101.48W
10/08/2018                   Howard             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING ALONG RANCH RD 33 NEAR US 87 AT THE
            HOWARD-GLASSCOCK LINE. CAR STRANDED IN FLOOD WATERS.

&&

SCOTT.KLEEBAUER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
946 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

TXZ082-090300-
Terrell TX-
946 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PECOS AND NORTHEASTERN
TERRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 944 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of the Terrell County Gas Plant, or 28 miles south of
Sheffield, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Terrell County Gas Plant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3052 10168 3047 10169 3046 10170 3047 10173
      3044 10172 3042 10174 3040 10170 3037 10168
      3035 10170 3033 10174 3029 10176 3030 10199
      3066 10187 3066 10182 3062 10166 3059 10166
      3055 10165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 236DEG 49KT 3036 10184

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
948 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     HAIL             12 E BALMORHEA          30.98N 103.54W
10/08/2018  M1.00 INCH       Reeves             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LOCATED ALONG 1-10 AT MM243

&&

SCOTT.KLEEBAUER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
948 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

TXZ082-090315-
Terrell TX-
948 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTY UNTIL
1015 PM CDT...

At 947 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking another strong thunderstorm
13 miles south of Terrell County Gas Plant, or 15 miles northeast of
Dryden, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Terrell County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3000 10179 3014 10205 3030 10199 3029 10176
      3005 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 236DEG 49KT 3018 10191

12

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