Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
900 PM CDT Fri Oct 5 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Busy evening across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/ongoing
convection over much of the area.  Cells have decreased in
intensity w/loss of diurnal heating, and we'll do a quick update
to remove mention of severe activity.  Also, anvil blow-off/high
cloud may inhibit lows overnight, and we'll bump them up a couple
of degrees as well. We'll make adjustments to other parameters as
necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 547 PM CDT Fri Oct 5 2018/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at most terminals through much of the
night across the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals.
Thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the region,
especially this evening. Have included a mention of tempo MVFR
tsra at KPEQ, KINK, and KFST through 06/08z based on the latest
radar trends and model guidance. Will monitor elsewhere. MVFR
Ceilings are expected at KMAF by 06/10z and will continue through
much of Saturday morning.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT Fri Oct 5 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge over the SE US with a weak trough moving into AZ today
then weakens as moves into NM Saturday.  However the broad trough is
reinforced/deepens across the Great Basin Saturday developing a
closed low by Sunday.  This will result in several days with good
rain chances for the area.  By the middle of next week this trough
will lift NE with zonal flow setting up from OK to the Pacific.

Have increased pops tonight and Saturday and already have storms on
radar around the Davis Mountains.  Best chance of rain tonight will
be for portions of SE NM... the Western Permian Basin... and the
Upper Trans Pecos.  Some of these storms could be severe with large
hail and damaging wind... may also see locally heavy rain due to
training but storms will not be sitting in one sport.  MAF 12z
sounding does show some directional and speed shear along with
unstable parameters and high PW.  With several periods of rain
chances hopefully much of the area will receive beneficial rain.
Based on model qpf the heaviest rain tonight may be across the Trans
Pecos shifting to the Northern Permian Basin Saturday.  As long as
the closed low remains west of the area will have the potential for
shortwaves to track across the area in SW flow... have high pops
through Monday.

Currently have unusually warm temps in the upper 80s to the lower 90s
with dewpts in the 60s over most of the region.  Cooler temps
expected through the weekend as clouds and rain combine to decrease
insolation.  Also a cold front is expected to sag into the northern
CWA Saturday and hang up... may become focus for storm development.
Expect cooler temps closer to normal next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  78  61  77 /  40  70  60  70
Carlsbad                       66  82  60  84 /  40  30  30  10
Dryden                         73  87  70  84 /  10  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                  69  85  67  84 /  50  50  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  80  60  78 /  50  20  20  10
Hobbs                          65  78  58  77 /  60  50  50  30
Marfa                          62  81  57  81 /  60  40  40  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  81  64  78 /  50  60  50  60
Odessa                         69  82  64  78 /  60  60  50  50
Wink                           70  83  65  83 /  70  50  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
153 PM CDT Fri Oct 5 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-061900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
153 PM CDT Fri Oct 5 2018 /1253 PM MDT Fri Oct 5 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Numerous thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight over
the Davis Mountains and mainly along and north of I-10. Some storms
could be severe with large hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

More severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday. Large
hail and damaging winds will be possible. However, heavy rainfall
will become more of a threat this weekend and possibly into early
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and this
evening, particularly across Southeast New Mexico, the western
Permian Basin, and the Trans Pecos.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1021 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2018

TXZ062-060345-
Midland TX-
1021 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MIDLAND COUNTY UNTIL 1045
PM CDT...

At 1021 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Midland, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Midland, Greenwood, Cotton Flat, Midland Airpark, Spraberry and
Skywest Airport.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 134 and 147.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3171 10210 3208 10214 3207 10181 3170 10180
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 240DEG 45KT 3198 10208

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1025 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     HAIL             ALPINE                  30.36N 103.67W
10/05/2018  E1.00 INCH       BREWSTER           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN ALPINE FROM 1018 PM TO 1223 PM CDT.

&&

AKL

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