Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1145 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show a line of convection running roughly N-S along
the Texas/NM border...moving ENE. By issuance time, this activity
should have cleared KCNM, KPEQ, and KHOB. Convection will be
possible other terminals over the next few hrs, w/strong
outflows/hvy rain. Otherwise, a westerly component to the sfc flow
picks up tomorrow. A widespread cu field will be possible Mon
afternoon, w/bases 4.5-5 kft AGL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Storms continue to move farther e and leading edge is about 100NM
sw of CNM. We still think there is a good chance for those storms
to make it to the wrn TAF sites this evening possibly around 02Z-
03Z. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the w and
severe storms could impact the wrn terminals. We have also
included TEMPO TSRA at MAF around starting 04Z. Otherwise updates
to TAF will occur as storms approach.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018/

DISCUSSION...
It has been pleasant today with mostly sunny skies and highs in
most areas only reaching the 80s and 90s. Couple that with some
rain tonight and it could be a really good 24 hours. Unfortunately
along with the rain we may be dealing with large hail and strong,
gusty winds as several models (including the HRRR/NAM/GFS) are
showing an MCS developing in our western CWA and moving east
across the Permian Basin. The biggest severe threat will be strong
winds, though large hail will also be possible, especially early
on before the discreet cells merge into one linear complex. Also
cannot rule out heavy rain causing isolated urban flash flooding
where drainage is poor, but the fast moving system will limit
rainfall totals so will not hit on this threat too much at this
time.

Enjoy today because the heat quickly returns tomorrow and even
more so Tue-Thu when heat advisory criteria may be met with highs
exceeding 105. The upper high pressure system causing this heat
breaks down slightly Friday and shifts its position off of West
Texas, providing some relief to the heat.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  67 100  73 /  10  60  10  10
Carlsbad                       93  63 101  68 /  30  70  10  10
Dryden                        103  71 103  74 /  20  30   0   0
Fort Stockton                  95  68 102  74 /  30  40  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 83  58  95  70 /  40  60  10  10
Hobbs                          90  61  97  67 /  20  80  10  10
Marfa                          93  59  96  63 /  30  40   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           94  67 100  74 /  20  60  10  10
Odessa                         93  68 100  74 /  20  60  10  10
Wink                           97  68 103  72 /  30  60   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

44/84/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
209 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-041915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
209 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 /109 PM MDT Sun Jun 3 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for southeast New Mexico
and south through Davis and Presidio counties through this evening.
Thunderstorm chances will increase later today across western areas
then shift east, moving through west Texas overnight. Some storms may
be severe, producing large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, storms
will be accompanied by frequent lightning, small hail, gusty winds,
and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Widespread triple-digit heat returns Tuesday, and continues beyond
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

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