Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

488 
WWUS54 KMAF 242145
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
445 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

TXC243-242230-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-180524T2230Z/
Jeff Davis TX-
445 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...

At 443 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles northeast of
Fort Davis, moving southeast at 20 mph.  This storm will cross State
Highway 17 north of Fort Davis shortly.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Jeff Davis County. Motorists planning to travel on
State Highway 17 should avoid the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 10386 3062 10351 3061 10352 3045 10375
      3073 10393
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 308DEG 19KT 3069 10381 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

70

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge centered off the west coast of
Mexico and extending up into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. At
the sfc, a theta-E ridge runs N-S thru the area, w/50F Td or higher
backed up as far as KELP.  Mesoanalysis shows the cap eroding,
w/hires models initiating convection omtns after 18Z.  Forecast
soundings are similar to yesterday's, showing steep mid-lvl LRs, a
dry subcloud lyr, and DCAPEs well in excess of 1000 J/kg, for a
continued large hail/damaging wind threat.  This looks to be
especially pronounced along/south of I-10, where deep-lyr shear of
around 45 kts is forecast this afternoon/evening.

Unfortunately, rain chances pretty much end after tonight as the
upper begins building NNE into the region.  An upper-lvl trough off
the west coast is forecast to make landfall Fri afternoon, and try
to nudge the ridge east into next week, but the ridge is not
budging, w/the low-lvl thermal ridge only strengthening and building
in from the west.  By 00Z Sun, all the long-range models increase
H85 temps to 30C or better, and keep them there thru the end of
their runs.  KMAF soundings have mixed down 17-18F the past few
days, which would argue for leaning toward the warmer end of the
solutions. The GFS is warmest, but we're reluctant to go quite that
high w/the west coast trough muscling in and passing north over
the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  99  71 104 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       64 101  63 103 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         69  99  72 104 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  68  99  72 103 /  20   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  95  69  99 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          64  97  64 101 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          60  93  60  97 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           70 100  72 104 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         70 100  72 104 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           68 102  69 105 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

49/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
206 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-251915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
206 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018 /106 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible today and this evening across much of the
area with the greatest chances across the higher terrain, especially
in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. Some of these storms may be
strong with gusty winds, hail, brief locally heavy rainfall, and
occasional to frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The weather is expected to turn unusually hot starting Saturday and
will gain momentum through the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
412 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

TXZ057-242200-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor TX-
412 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 411 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 24
miles southeast of Salt Flat, or 26 miles south of Pine Springs on
State Highway 54, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

LAT...LON 3135 10485 3157 10488 3162 10468 3137 10462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 256DEG 12KT 3151 10477

70