Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

477 
WWUS54 KMAF 012043
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
343 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

NMC015-TXC109-012053-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-180901T2100Z/
Eddy NM-Culberson TX-
343 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY AND NORTH
CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3189 10446 3200 10451 3213 10425 3193 10409
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 251DEG 11KT 3200 10433 

$$

33

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
256 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT...Welcome to the first day of
Meteorological Autumn! It will actually feel like it with a wet
week ahead with...hold on...temps below normal next week! With all
the rain that the medium range models are putting out we might be
able to grow palm trees here and see alot of green on the ground
(sorry not money!).

KMAF radar shows convection breaking out in the Davis/Guadalupe
Mtns and into the Trans Pecos. Northern Lea County didn't want to
feel left out of the party as convection is breaking out in the
northern third of the County. Adding to the party this aftn
convection is moving east out of the Sacramento Mtns. Radar
estimates show locally heavy rain in the convection.

Alrighty...off to the discussion. The Simple Water Vapor RBG
product is currently indc a ridge stretching from the Atlantic off
the NC/VA Coast southwest into Texas. A trough covers the Rockies
with the westerlies dipping south into AZ/NM. IR imagery is
showing convective clusters with cooling cloud tops across NM and
West Texas.

Medium range models are similar with the pattern for the upcoming
week. For the short-term followed the NAM Nest CAM model thru
Labor Day. There will be bouts of convection tonight...then a
little respite on Sunday with lower pops. Convection ticks up
Sunday night and even more so on Labor Day. Thought about issuing
a Flash Flood Watch for Labor Day but even with the models in
general agreement the details are not yet clear...so will continue
the SPS.

As of now...the best chance for heavy rain is in the Tuesday to
Thursday timeframe. In general models show a ridge along the mid
Atlantic Coast stretching southwest into the Southern Appalachians
and a trough in the Rockies. This will result in deep layer south
to southeast flow aloft and at the surface advecting copious
amounts of moisture from Mexico and the Gulf. Impulses moving
overhead will combine with the deep moisture to bring bouts of
convection with heavy rain possible. With all the cloud cover and
rain high temps will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Later on in
the week the trough moves slowly east into the Plains. A
complicating factor will be the tropical wave along the Dominican
Republic Coast. The ECMWF brings it into the Gulf early into the
week and strengthens it into a tropical cyclone. The ECMWF moves
this system west along the Gulf Coast and into Texas by the end of
the week. The GFS does not show this system. As is the
case...even though the models are in agreement with the overall
pattern the devil is definitely in the details. Will tend to
agree with the ECMWF with the evolution and location of the future
tropical system.

So what is the bottom line? A wet (potentially very wet) week
ahead with below normal temperatures. Will continue to evaluate
the need for a Flash Flood Watch as the details sort themselves
out in future model runs.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  92  74  87 /  20  30  50  60
Carlsbad                       68  89  70  86 /  60  20  40  30
Dryden                         74  95  76  94 /  10  20  50  40
Fort Stockton                  72  90  72  89 /  40  20  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 65  83  65  81 /  60  20  40  40
Hobbs                          66  85  66  82 /  60  20  50  50
Marfa                          61  83  62  81 /  20  30  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           73  91  72  88 /  30  20  50  50
Odessa                         73  90  71  87 /  40  20  50  40
Wink                           73  92  72  90 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

84/33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
220 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-021930-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
220 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018 /120 PM MDT Sat Sep 1 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across southeast New
Mexico and the higher terrain of Southwest Texas. Strong winds,
heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning will be possible.

Thunderstorms will be possible overnight across southeast New
Mexico,the northwest Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, and south to
the Davis Mountains. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, and localized
flash flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding could occur across much
of the area through Sunday. There is a more widespread threat of
flash flooding from late Monday through mid-week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
259 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-021000-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-
Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-Big Bend Area-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains-
Including the cities of Queen, Artesia, Carlsbad,
Carlsbad Caverns NP, Tatum, Hobbs, Lovington, Eunice, Jal,
Seminole, Lamesa, Gail, Snyder, Andrews, Stanton, Big Spring,
Colorado City, Van Horn, Pecos, Mentone, Kermit, Odessa, Midland,
Garden City, Monahans, Crane, McCamey, Rankin, Big Lake, Alpine,
Fort Davis, Fort Stockton, Presidio, Marfa, Big Bend NP,
Marathon, Dryden, Sanderson, Guadalupe Mountains NP,
and Pine Springs
259 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018 /159 PM MDT Sat Sep 1 2018/

...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE STARTING LATE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THOUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...

A broad upper trough will set up over Arizona and New Mexico this
weekend and put Southeast New Mexico and West Texas in a
favorable position to receive several rounds of rainfall through
most of next week.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
Southeast New Mexico this afternoon, then spread east and
southeastward tonight.  Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
over the Permian Basin Sunday night. Heavy rainfall and localized
flash flooding will be possible with these showers and storms.

The upper trough is expected to remain just west of the region
through at least Wednesday, which will promote the development
of multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  Rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches could occur over portions of the forecast
area from Labor Day to Wednesday, although there are some
indications rain chances could last through the week. As a
result, there will be the threat for more widespread flash
flooding on these days.

Everyone is encouraged to keep abreast of the latest forecasts,
and hazardous weather watches and warnings during Labor Day
weekend.  Be attentive to your surroundings, and have a plan to
reach higher ground in the event of flash flooding.  Keep track
of the latest weather information at weather.gov/midland, NOAA
Weather Radio, or your favorite media outlet.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
330 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

NMZ028-TXZ058-012115-
Eddy County Plains NM-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos TX-
330 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDDY AND
NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT/315 PM MDT/...

At 330 PM CDT/230 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 13 miles south of Whites City, or 25 miles east of Pine
Springs, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Malaga.

LAT...LON 3202 10451 3236 10392 3210 10374 3187 10440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 243DEG 13KT 3198 10439

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
232 PM MDT SAT SEP 1 2018

NMZ029-012115-
Northern Lea County NM-
232 PM MDT SAT SEP 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM MDT...

At 231 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tatum, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tatum, Gladiola and Tatum Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3327 10306 3319 10335 3331 10347 3355 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 237DEG 17KT 3329 10327

24