Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Cloud cover will increase, especially tonight as rain chances
increase.  Ceilings should stay VFR through this evening, except for
temporary MVFR, if not IFR, in heavy rainfall at KHOB, KINK, KPEQ,
and KFST where the axis of thunderstorms is expected to set up.
Gusty south to southeast winds will affect most terminals this
afternoon and tonight, in addition to more erratic gusty winds in
and near any thunderstorms.  MVFR ceilings could form at all but
KCNM ahead/behind thunderstorms so have added these to the forecast.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018/

Mid-level remnants of Bud were lifting nwd thru Sonora and wrn
Chihuahua MX with an expansive plume of moisture covering much of
the desert SW. Bud's remnants are embedded within broader mid-
level flow e of a trof, meanwhile off to the e INVOF AR/LA an
upper-level anticyclone is in place. Over the next 24-30hrs the sw
flow aloft will remain anomalously moist (2-3 positive standard
deviations) and as said trof and anticyclone move e and w,
respectively, the mid-level moist axis (well seen in mid-level
theta-e) will sharpen and flow will strengthen. This long fetch sw
flow will be favored to entrain shrtwv trof/s and become unstable
today, some strong storms with heavy rain are possible. A look at
OMEGA cross sections from sw of Presidio into SE NM indicate
strong lift embedded with in this moist axis and we expect that
SHRA/TSRA will flourish, especially Sat evening - Sun morning. The
possibility of training cells within this axis increases the
possibility of heavy rain generally from Presidio- Davis Mtns-W
PB-SE NM, where generally 1-3" of rain will be possible. Impacts
include the possibility of Rio Grande/tributary flooding and flash
flooding in the Davis Mtns, especially within the McDannald and
Scenic Loop burn scars. WPC has highlighted much of the described
area within the slight risk of excessive rainfall. The end result
for us is the issuance of a Flash Flood Watch for Presidio, Jeff
Davis and Brewster Counties for late Sat PM thru Sun AM, leaving
the next shift the decision as to the need for northward
expansion? Sun/Mon PM PoP forecast will again be focused around
the mid-level theta-e ridge axis where SB instability, if not
hindered by cloud cover, will have a chance to focus. Thereafter
there are still difference in GFS/ECMWF wrt inverted mid-level
trof, GFS farther n and as such wetter across the CWFA Tue,
possibly Wed? There is agreement with drier forecast Thur-Sat with
a warming trend. In the meantime with clouds/precip/lower
heights/absence of low-level thermal ridge will make for pleasant
temperatures for this time of yr.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  73  91  73 /  10  20  30  30
Carlsbad                       90  68  91  67 /  40  70  20  10
Dryden                         92  74  93  74 /  30  40  40  20
Fort Stockton                  91  70  88  70 /  40  70  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 84  63  85  66 /  50  60  20   0
Hobbs                          87  67  86  66 /  30  80  30  20
Marfa                          87  63  82  61 /  50  90  50  30
Midland Intl Airport           91  72  91  72 /  10  40  40  30
Odessa                         91  72  90  72 /  10  50  40  30
Wink                           92  71  91  70 /  40  80  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch from 5 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday
     morning for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa
     Plateau-Presidio Valley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
311 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-170815-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
311 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 /211 AM MDT Sat Jun 16 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, mainly
over southeast New Mexico and south through the Davis Mountains. Some
storms could be strong to severe, potentially producing large hail
and strong winds along with heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

Rain chances increase later tonight with heavy rainfall and flash
flooding being the main concerns during this time. The areas of
greatest concern will be areas near Presidio and western areas of Big
Bend northward through the Davis Mountains, upper Trans Pecos and
southeast New Mexico, where 1-2 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts will be possible. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for
Presidio, Jeff Davis and Brewster Counties late this afternoon
through Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorm chances will continue into Sunday and Sunday night,
with best chances shifting farther east into the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will
continue to be a concern with any thunderstorm. There could also be
flooding along the Rio Grande during this time due to runoff from
heavy rainfall, or influx of water from the Rio Conchos.

There will be more chances of thunderstorms next week, with heavy
rainfall being the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland