Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

999 
WWUS84 KMAF 100913
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
313 AM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH 
THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS, WINDS 
OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW 
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

.Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across all 
of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with minimum humidity in 
the single digits across much of the area. Wind speeds will range
from 15 to 25 mph across the plains with higher speeds in the
mountains. RFTI values will range from 3 to 7. The fire weather 
threat diminishes Sunday with the arrival of a cold front.

TXZ047-048-052-053-063-069-070-082-102200-
/O.UPG.KMAF.FW.A.0008.180310T1700Z-180311T0100Z/
/O.EXA.KMAF.FW.W.0006.180310T1700Z-180311T0100Z/
Borden-Scurry-Howard-Mitchell-Glasscock-Upton-Reagan-Terrell-
313 AM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10 PERCENT OR LESS, WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH, AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS...

The National Weather Service in Midland/Odessa has issued a Red
Flag Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM
CST this evening. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. 

* WIND...West to northwest 15 to 20 mph.

* HUMIDITY...6 to 9 percent.

* FIRE DANGER...Very high.

* IMPACTS...Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

NMZ114-115-TXZ045-046-050-051-057>062-067-068-074-075-079>081-258-
102200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0006.180310T1700Z-180311T0100Z/
Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains-Gaines-Dawson-Andrews-Martin-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-
Ward-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
Marfa Plateau-Big Bend Area-
313 AM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 /213 AM MST Sat Mar 10 2018/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/
THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS, WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE TRANS PECOS, AND
THE WEST AND CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN...

* WIND...West to northwest 15 to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...7 to 15 percent.

* FIRE DANGER...Very high.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A combination of favorable weather and dry fuels will increase
potential for fire starts and growth.

&&

$$

944 
WWUS84 KMAF 102009
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
209 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING 
FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS, WINDS OF 20 MPH OR 
MORE, AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST 
TEXAS...

.Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this
afternoon across all of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with 
minimum humidity in the single digits across much of the area. 
Wind speeds will range from 15 to 25 mph across the plains with 
higher speeds in the mountains. RFTI values will range from 3 to 
7. The fire weather threat diminishes Sunday with the arrival of a
cold front and a return to below normal temperatures.

NMZ114-115-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-258-
110100-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180311T0100Z/
Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-
Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-
Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-Big Bend Area-Terrell-
209 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 /109 PM MST Sat Mar 10 2018/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/
THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10 PERCENT OR LESS, WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH, AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

* WIND...West to northwest 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

* HUMIDITY...6 to 15 percent.

* FIRE DANGER...Very high.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stow trailer chains properly. Hold off on yard work or welding
near dry vegetation. Avoid driving in dry grass. Extinguish
cigarettes inside your vehicle.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
450 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with some high clouds are expected at the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours.
Generally westerly winds of 5 to 15 mph are expected overnight and
early Saturday morning. Winds will increase to 15 to 30 mph and
gusty by late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably warm weather will be the rule through Saturday, along
with increasing fire weather concerns. A cold front on Sunday will
result in a return to below normal temperatures for the end of
the weekend and early next week, though unfortunately,
precipitation chances remain low. Tuesday onward, another warming
trend is expected, with above normal temperatures on tap once
again by late next week.

It's feeling a lot more like late April/early May than early March
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas today, with most
locations well on the way to highs in the upper 70s and 80s
despite some mid and high clouds. These unseasonably warm
temperatures have accelerated the continued drying across the
region, leading to critical fire weather conditions this afternoon
across western portions of the area where winds are stronger,
particularly across the higher terrain from the Guadalupe
Mountains south to the Marfa Plateau. While a few of the high-
resolution models generate some light showers across the Davis
Mountains and Stockton Plateau this afternoon, do not expect much
to result if these were to occur given the incredibly dry boundary
layer, though gusty winds could result. On Saturday, critical
fire weather conditions will expand areawide as temperatures soar
15 to 20 degrees above normal and gusty westerly to northwesterly
winds develop due to a tightening surface pressure gradient across
the region. Further details can be found in the Fire Weather
Discussion below.

After a couple days of unseasonably warm weather, a big change is on
the way for Sunday as a shortwave diving southeast across the
Northern Plains toward the Middle Mississippi Valley pushes a
trailing cold front southward through the region. This front is
progged to reach the Pecos River Valley by mid-morning, and
quickly progress to the Rio Grande by early to mid-afternoon.
Temperatures Sunday will only top out in the 50s and 60s for most
of the area, with 70s possible through the Rio Grande Valley. The
cooler weather will provide a reprieve from critical fire weather
conditions, with below normal temperatures in the 50s and 60s
expected to persist through Monday. Models continue to generate
QPF on Saturday night/Sunday with the front, and while amounts (if
any) would be light, it appears the best opportunity will be in
closer vicinity to the higher terrain. Low rain chances continue
Sunday night and Monday, mainly across the Big Bend Area.

Ridging will begin to redevelop on Tuesday, yielding a warming trend
ahead of a return to well above normal temperatures late next week.
The ridge will begin to shift east by Thursday ahead of the next
upper trough that could potentially affect the region, perhaps
providing some much needed rainfall. However, model solutions
diverge on the handling of this system, thus have maintained a
mainly dry forecast through the extended until guidance comes into
better agreement. Stay tuned...

FIRE WEATHER...

Sat vis imagery shows a blanket of mid/hi cloud streaming off the mtn
ranges west, and inhibiting mixing somewhat this afternoon and
keeping temps a bit lower than otherwise.  Still, current obs show
critical RH has developed most areas west of the Pecos and portions
of the S. Plains.  Higher RFTIs are concentrated over areas to the
north, where less cloud cover is observed.  As such, current Red
Flag Warning looks good, and will be allowed to expire as scheduled.

Saturday looks more favorable for critical fire wx as another sfc
trough sinks into the S. Plains, veering 20' winds more westerly
during the afternoon.  The LLTR looks similar to today's, only a bit
warmer.  Model RH progs show less cloud cover than
today...especially the NAM, w/forecast soundings showing deeper
mixing as well.  While areas outside the current watch (Presidio
Valley, upper Colorado River Valley, and SE Permian Basin) don't
look to reach critical 20' windspeeds Sat afternoon, these areas
will have at RFTIs of at least 3-4, and w/ERCs approaching the 90th
percentile, we see no reason not to include these areas in the watch
as well. After the current warning drops off this evening, if new
data continues to argue for it, we will likely upgrade tomorrow's
watch to a warning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  86  45  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       48  84  46  56 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         52  92  55  69 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  54  87  48  59 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 51  74  47  49 /   0   0  20  30
Hobbs                          43  81  41  54 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          39  78  43  59 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           50  85  46  58 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         50  84  47  57 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           47  86  47  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa
     Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
156 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-102000-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
156 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018 /1256 PM MST Fri Mar 9 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Very dry and breezy conditions have resulted in critical fire
weather conditions from the Guadalupe Mountains to the Davis and
Apache Mountains, as well as the Marfa Plateau, this afternoon. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect through early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Critical fire weather conditions are possible again Saturday across
all of West texas and Southeast New Mexico. A Fire Weather Watch is
in effect.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

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