Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

770 
WGUS64 KMAF 210827
FFAMAF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...Flash Flood Watch Is Cancelled...

.Rainfall is moving out of the area and the threat for widespread
flash flooding is diminishing. Minor flooding will still be
possible through this afternoon.

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-258-210930-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-180921T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-
Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-
Including the cities of Queen, Artesia, Carlsbad, 
Carlsbad Caverns NP, Tatum, Hobbs, Lovington, Eunice, Jal, 
Seminole, Lamesa, Gail, Snyder, Andrews, Stanton, Big Spring, 
Colorado City, Van Horn, Pecos, Mentone, Kermit, Odessa, Midland,
Garden City, Guadalupe Mountains NP, and Pine Springs
327 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018 /227 AM MDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast New Mexico and
Texas has been cancelled. Minor flooding will still be possible
through this afternoon.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1237 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Satellite imagery and radar shows clouds/showers are moving into the
area from the southwest. SSE winds have been and are currently gusting
at MAF and HOB. One of the main concerns for this forecast is
heavy rain that will likely result in MVFR conditions for the
western TAFs. Still have left out TS due to uncertainty of timing
and location. The other concern is a possible wind shift. Expect
the winds to slow down and shift to the N around 00/02z for CNM
and then later for the sites further south.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase through tonight areawide, followed by a
cold front and cooler temperatures Friday and this weekend.  An
upper trough translating eastward over the Great Basin will combine
with the remnants of a tropical system from the Pacific, both of
which will move over the region tonight, Friday and perhaps
lingering over the area Saturday.  This will allow for widespread
showers and thunderstorms today through Friday, with some of the
showers and storms capable of producing heavy rainfall due to
tropical type downpours, and especially since PWats will rise to
around 2 inches through tonight and at least Friday.  Even though we
expect to see localized flash flooding tonight, and Friday when a
cold front will move into the area and provide a low level focus,
there is still too much variability amongst current model progs in
the timing and location of heavy rainfall to prevent the issuance of
a Flash Flood Watch at this time.  Please stay tuned as one may be
in the offing within the next 12 hours or so.

Behind the mentioned cold front, strong northeast gap winds could
occur in Guadalupe Pass as early as Friday evening, lasting until
Saturday morning.  Will hold off on issuance of a High Wind Watch
there as the timing of the front is in question, not to mention how
quickly the surface ridge builds southward behind the front.  It
does appear rain chances will begin to wind down Saturday and after
as the upper trough begins to pull away, and a warming trend sets in
under a weak upper ridge initially, then increasing westerly flow
aloft to the south of a deepening upper trough over the CONUS next
week.  Temperatures will drop below normal Friday in most locations
and stay that way until Sunday when they approach normal levels
again.  Readings will then jump above normal Monday and Tuesday
before another cold front possibly cools us down Wednesday and
Thursday, along with another chance of rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  70  77  61 /  30  70  70  50
Carlsbad                       81  65  78  61 /  60  70  20  20
Dryden                         88  71  86  69 /  40  50  40  40
Fort Stockton                  83  69  81  61 /  40  60  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 74  61  72  55 /  60  60  20  20
Hobbs                          79  66  73  57 /  40  80  40  20
Marfa                          76  56  78  52 /  50  50  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           84  69  79  61 /  40  70  60  30
Odessa                         83  70  78  60 /  40  70  50  30
Wink                           84  69  80  61 /  40  60  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

04/99/04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
219 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-211930-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
219 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018 /119 PM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heavy showers and thunderstorm are likely tonight with the potential
for locally heavy rainfall especially from Southeast New Mexico and
Culberson county eastward across the Upper Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue with best chances
shifting east Friday and Saturday. The primary concern will be heavy
rainfall... which could lead to flash flooding especially across the
Eastern Permian Basin Friday and Friday night.

Strong gap winds will be possible through Guadalupe Pass Friday
night and Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland