Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
202 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

Overall the models remain in decent agreement in the synoptic scale
with the usual timing differences expected in this type of pattern.
While a general blend of solutions is preferred. it must be noted
that the NAM solution is the most aggressive in developing precip
tonight and will not weighed as heavily as the other high res/short
term models.

Its just another hot and humid afternoon across the state as broad
upper level high pressure remains over the Great Basin. Subsequent
downstream troughing over the east has put the area in a general
northwest flow aloft. Just scattered convection is expected through
the afternoon and mainly associated with the leftovers of an MCS
that passed to the north of the state earlier today. Coverage is not
expected to be as great as what was seen over the past few days but
a stronger pulse type storm can not be discounted. The heat advisory
will be left in place and set to expire at 7 PM.

Models are pretty consistent with moving a piece of energy in the
aforementioned northwest flow and across the state tonight and into
early Wednesday. With all the models showing some type of precip,
pops have been increased for most of the state through Wednesday
morning. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be excessive but the
chances of seeing some rain are increasing. With both clouds and
precipitation in the area, not expecting any heat related headlines
on Wednesday.

Upper ridging will begin to build back over the area Thursday with a
return to the very hot and humid conditions and decreasing chances
of precipitation. Heat indices may become an issue once Thursday
with widespread highs in the 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Monday

Fairly little change to the previous forecast as the overall pattern
changes very little during the long term. Long term begins with an
upper level ridge centered over the four corners region of the US
with an upper level low located over the Great Lakes. This results
in northwest flow aloft across much of Arkansas. Thursday night into
Friday, that Low will push a bit to the southeast with upper level
energy swinging through northern Arkansas early Friday morning. This
will keep some rain chances in the forecast at the start of the long
term. As we head into the weekend dry weather will return with very
little chance of rain.

Most difficult part of the forecast will be the extremely hot day on
Friday. Model temperatures are the hottest seen all week. However
the NAM hints at upper level energy swinging through the area during
the afternoon while the GFS moves it through earlier in the day. At
this point...kept the forecast consistent and sided with the GFS.
However if the NAM pans out, big bust potential is possible with the
temperatures.

A weak front will remain stalled across Arkansas through the
weekend and into Monday. By Monday, it is possible that rain could
develop along that front, however at this point potential is too low
to include in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  89  71  93 /  30  50  20  20
Camden AR         75  95  75  99 /  30  30  20  10
Harrison AR       71  87  70  93 /  40  50  20  10
Hot Springs AR    76  93  74  98 /  30  40  20  10
Little Rock   AR  76  92  74  96 /  30  60  20  10
Monticello AR     75  92  75  95 /  30  50  20  20
Mount Ida AR      74  92  73  98 /  30  40  10  10
Mountain Home AR  71  87  70  92 /  30  50  20  20
Newport AR        73  89  72  91 /  20  50  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     75  92  74  95 /  30  60  20  10
Russellville AR   76  92  74  97 /  40  50  20  10
Searcy AR         74  91  71  94 /  30  60  20  20
Stuttgart AR      75  91  73  94 /  30  60  20  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-
Monroe-Ouachita-Prairie-Woodruff.

&&

Short Term...GOUDSWARD / Long Term...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
119 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181830-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
119 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible through
the overnight hours. An isolated strong to severe storm will be
be possible mainly in the afternoon to early evening with gusty
winds and frequent lightning the greatest concerns. The overall
threat for severe weather remains low.

Heat index values will exceed 100 degrees through early evening
for parts of central and southern Arkansas. Extra precautions
should be taken to minimize the affects of the heat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

Thunderstorms will become a bit more scattered and common by the
middle of this week, with the best chances for seeing thunderstorms
during the afternoon hours Wednesday. While organized severe
weather is not expected, a few strong storms may be possible.
Chances for thunderstorms decrease by the weekend.

Also, heat index values will remain elevated through the week.
Most locations will see heat index values in the upper 90s to just
over 100 degrees, while some areas may see heat index values exceed
105 degrees in the afternoons.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today through tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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