Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
256 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
A large area of high pressure aloft is centered over the Rockies at
this time and will slowly drift east through Sunday. A cold front
will move through the state tonight with showers and thunderstorms.
A few severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out this evening. The
front will progress from north to south. Rain chances will continue
in the south Saturday morning as the front will stall near the
Louisiana border. The front will move back to the north Sunday. This
will bring rain chances to the entire area again.

Temperatures today are very warm ahead of the front. Some places
have reached the upper 90s. Temperatures will be a bit cooler
Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Lows will be
coolest Saturday night, in the lower 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
No major changes to the fcst during the PD. The much discussed upper
ridge is fcst to rmn centered to the N of AR heading into the next
week. The resulting easterly steering flow wl cont to send several
upper impulses acrs the area, around the periphery of the ridge.
Scattered convection wl remain the fcst as a result each day,
primarily diurnal in nature.

More or less stuck with persistence as far as temps go thru the PD.
Afternoon heat indices may approach advisory criteria by the middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  88  67  89 /  20  10  10  30
Camden AR         74  90  71  90 /  40  40  40  60
Harrison AR       66  87  63  88 /  10  10   0  20
Hot Springs AR    72  89  69  89 /  40  20  20  60
Little Rock   AR  72  89  70  89 /  40  10  20  50
Monticello AR     74  89  71  89 /  40  50  40  70
Mount Ida AR      71  89  68  88 /  40  10  20  60
Mountain Home AR  66  87  64  88 /  10  10   0  30
Newport AR        70  88  68  89 /  20  10  10  40
Pine Bluff AR     74  89  71  89 /  40  30  30  70
Russellville AR   72  90  68  89 /  30  10  10  40
Searcy AR         71  89  69  90 /  30  10  10  40
Stuttgart AR      73  89  71  89 /  40  30  30  60
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

Short Term...51 / Long Term...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
235 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
235 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through this evening.
While the overall threat for widespread or organized severe
weather is low, a few strong or severe thunderstorms are possible.
If thunderstorms do become severe, damaging winds up to 50 mph
and large hail will be the primary threats. Frequent cloud to
ground lightning will pose a danger for those on or near area
lakes through this evening. Some locally heavy rainfall may also
be seen with any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible through next week. Though
the over all threat for severe thunderstorms is low, a few storms
could become strong during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The strongest storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall,
which could cause localized flash flooding issues.

Afternoon and early evening heat index values could approach or
exceed 100 degrees by mid-week next week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
256 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

ARZ033-045-062045-
White AR-Lonoke AR-
256 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LONOKE AND WHITE
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 255 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gravel Hill, or 14 miles west of Searcy, moving south at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cabot...                          Searcy...
Beebe...                          Ward...
Bald Knob...                      Austin in Lonoke County...
Judsonia...                       Kensett...
Higginson...                      Rose Bud...
West Point...                     Crosby...
Gravel Hill...                    McRae...
Garner...                         Letona...
Griffithville...                  Albion...
Antioch in White County...        Vinity Corner...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 9158 3504 9180 3503 9181 3502 9212
      3536 9211 3536 9185 3540 9185 3544 9155
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 357DEG 13KT 3529 9197

Cavanaugh

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
302 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

ARZ021-030-062045-
Johnson AR-Logan AR-
302 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LOGAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 302 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm over Clarksville, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville...                    Paris...
Lamar...                          Knoxville...
Subiaco...                        Hartman...
Scranton...                       Woodland...
Hinkle...                         Hoyt...
Midway in Logan County...         Spadra...
Tokalon...                        Lake Dardanelle...
Coal Hill...                      Morrison Bluff...
Roseville...                      Dublin...
Ludwig...                         Piney Bay Recreation Area...

LAT...LON 3537 9381 3540 9379 3536 9375 3537 9371
      3548 9371 3556 9363 3550 9337 3541 9330
      3537 9330 3515 9354 3535 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 049DEG 13KT 3544 9347

Cavanaugh

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
307 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

ARZ031-032-039-044-062045-
Pulaski AR-Perry AR-Faulkner AR-Conway AR-
307 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PERRY...SOUTHEASTERN
CONWAY...FAULKNER AND NORTH CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
CDT...

At 307 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Menifee to near Pickles Gap to Mount Vernon.
Movement was south at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Conway...                         Vilonia...
Mayflower...                      Wooster...
Enola...                          Menifee...
Mount Vernon...                   Pickles Gap...
Little Italy...                   Springhill...
Toad Suck...                      Olmstead...
Holland...                        Bigelow...
Fourche...                        Hamlet...
Saltillo...                       Otto...
Cato...                           New Dixie...

LAT...LON 3501 9212 3492 9224 3494 9263 3518 9260
      3520 9234 3526 9211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 346DEG 13KT 3512 9254 3512 9232 3520 9211

46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
310 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

ARZ033-034-046-062100-
White AR-Prairie AR-Woodruff AR-
310 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WOODRUFF...NORTHEASTERN
PRAIRIE AND SOUTHEASTERN WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 309 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
McCrory, or 8 miles southeast of Augusta, moving southwest at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Augusta...                        Patterson...
McCrory...                        Pryor...
Hurricane Lake WMA...             Dixie...
Sand Hill...                      Howell...
McClelland...                     Gregory...
Grays...                          Little Dixie...
Wiville...                        Georgetown...

LAT...LON 3534 9120 3521 9108 3495 9139 3517 9157
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 046DEG 16KT 3523 9121

46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
316 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

ARZ037-062045-
Scott AR-
316 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

At 316 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Waldron, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waldron...                        Beauchamp...
Oliver...                         Morgan Springs...
Cauthron...                       Winfield...
Hon...

LAT...LON 3499 9416 3488 9404 3470 9422 3470 9424
      3487 9440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 045DEG 6KT 3488 9415

46

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