River Flood Warning 49, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 AM CDT Thu May 3 2018

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread across
the northwest half of Arkansas today. There will be a lot
of low clouds accompanying the rain, with MVFR conditions
becoming common. Farther southeast, precipitation will
be more isolated, with VFR conditions expected.

Rain will taper off later this afternoon/early this
evening across the north/west, with low clouds breaking
up. VFR conditions will be noted across much of the
state.

Breezy south winds are in the forecast today at 10 to
15 mph, with gusts from 16 to 24 mph. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
A storm system aloft will exit the Rockies into the Plains
today. The system will track toward the upper Midwest and
western Great Lakes tonight/Friday, and will weaken with
time.

At the surface, a cold front will slowly push into Arkansas
from tbe northwest late tonight, and will cross the state Friday
and Friday night. Until the front passes, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected.

If there is going to be any severe weather, it will be
later this afternoon and tonight ahead of the front. Even so,
any severe storms should be isolated, and confined to areas
mainly north/west of Little Rock. Severe weather will be
more likely north of the state closer to the track of the
weakening system.

As far as rainfall, the heaviest precipitation will occur
today/tonight across the northern/western counties. Half inch
to inch amounts are in the forecast, with locally higher
amounts possible.

Above average temperatures are expected today, with
closer to seasonal readings to end the period.
&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
At the start of the long term, a weak trough will be swinging east
over the area. At the surface a front will be in place just south
and east of the area which will help focus rain chances across
roughly the southeast half of the state on Saturday.

The flow aloft will then be out of the northwest which will allow a
weak disturbance to move over the state late Sunday into Monday. At
the same time, a weak frontal boundary is expected to pass over the
area as well. Only a few showers are possible as this front moves
through, with most of this activity confined to northern Arkansas.
Only a minor drop in temperature can be expected across northern
areas behind this front.

Near the end of the period, another weak disturbance aloft may
approach the state form the northwest but confidence remains low
with precip over the area attm. Otherwise, a fairly dry period with
near normal temperatures can be expected.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     81  69  80  60 /  60  60  40  20
Camden AR         86  68  77  62 /  20  30  40  40
Harrison AR       76  66  74  55 /  70  60  20  10
Hot Springs AR    82  68  74  60 /  60  50  40  20
Little Rock   AR  84  69  79  62 /  60  50  40  20
Monticello AR     85  67  80  64 /  10  20  30  50
Mount Ida AR      80  68  74  57 /  70  50  40  20
Mountain Home AR  78  65  79  56 /  70  60  20  10
Newport AR        82  69  80  61 /  50  60  40  30
Pine Bluff AR     85  68  79  63 /  20  30  40  40
Russellville AR   79  69  78  58 /  70  60  30  10
Searcy AR         83  68  80  61 /  60  50  40  20
Stuttgart AR      84  69  79  63 /  30  40  40  40
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...46 / Long Term...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Thu May 3 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Wed May 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through
tonight, especially across northern and western into central
Arkansas.

Some storms could be severe across the northern and western
counties. Large hail and damaging winds are the main concerns.

Breezy south to southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph will continue, with
gusts over 25 mph in places. Caution is advised on area bodies of
water.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will slowly build into southern
and eastern Arkansas Friday and Friday night. Storms are not
expected to become severe.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening in
portions of northern and western Arkansas.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

46/67

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1102 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

ARZ004-005-012>014-022-023-031645-
Baxter AR-Pope AR-Marion AR-Searcy AR-Newton AR-Stone AR-
Van Buren AR-
1102 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

At 1100 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorm producing
heavy rainfall. Creeks in the area are rising and minor flooding is
possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall...                       Norfork...
Salesville...                     Briarcliff...
Marsena...                        Witts Spring...
Rocky Hill...                     Moore...
Duff...                           Point Peter...
Herron...                         Maumee...
Advance...                        Cartney...
Bohannon...                       Imo...
Culp...                           Elberta...
Watts...                          Thola...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 9216 3617 9220 3617 9221 3613 9221
      3595 9229 3570 9254 3571 9300 3591 9304
      3625 9258 3628 9216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1600Z 240DEG 49KT 3586 9265

Cooper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1134 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

ARZ006-007-015-031730-
Sharp AR-Fulton AR-Izard AR-
1134 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

At 1132 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of moderate to
heavy rain across the area. Localized rises on creeks and other
water ways could lead to flooding. Be aware of high water!

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee Village...               Melbourne...
Ash Flat...                       Horseshoe Bend...
Cave City...                      Highland in Sharp County...
Mammoth Spring...                 Hardy...
Oxford...                         Franklin...
Sidney...                         Ballard...
Myron...                          Mammoth Spring State Park...
Lacrosse...                       Stella...
Evening Shade...                  Williford...
Agnos...                          Armstrong...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring, and may lead to localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 9139 3647 9136 3642 9135 3642 9131
      3639 9131 3637 9128 3633 9128 3633 9126
      3624 9126 3624 9133 3623 9133 3623 9135
      3604 9135 3594 9151 3594 9162 3605 9190
      3622 9191 3650 9161 3650 9141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1632Z 240DEG 49KT 3628 9149

Cooper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1144 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

ARZ004-005-013>015-022-023-031745-
Baxter AR-Pope AR-Marion AR-Searcy AR-Stone AR-Van Buren AR-Izard AR-
1144 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

At 1143 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of moderate to
occasionally heavy rainfall across the area. Rainfall will continue,
and may lead to isolated flooding. Be aware of rising water!

Locations impacted include...
Marshall...                       Calico Rock...
Norfork...                        Pineville...
Marsena...                        Witts Spring...
Rocky Hill...                     Duff...
Point Peter...                    Herron...
Maumee...                         Advance...
Cartney...                        Bohannon...
Imo...                            Culp...
Elberta...                        Watts...
Thola...                          Kay...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring, and may lead to localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 9202 3595 9227 3572 9255 3565 9290
      3590 9295 3599 9294 3625 9246
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 240DEG 49KT 3591 9256

Cooper