Flash Flood Warning 90, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
306 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

Zonal flow in place aloft along and to the north of the state this
afternoon, with elongated ridging remaining just to the south. An
impulse in the flow was making its way just north of the area and
was helping to provide lift for shower and thunderstorm
development across northern Arkansas this afternoon. With high
pressure in control to the south, only scattered cumulus had
developed and temperatures were quite warm by 20z, in the mid 90s
for many areas.

Through the short term portion of the forecast, the zonal flow will
give way to more amplified troughing as ridging across the west
intensifies. This will allow additional pieces of shortwave
energy to pass over the state. Additionally, a surface boundary
will make its way into the state and will stall, helping to focus
activity locally. With persistent disturbances traversing the
flow and the boundary in place at the surface, widespread cloud
cover and increased rain chances will be advertised in the
forecast. This will lead to below normal daytime highs.

Deep southwesterly moisture flow continues to be seen with today's
12z model guidance as atmospheric profiles continue to be well
saturated. The latest data suggests PWAT values aoa 2" across much
of the state through at least the next 48 hours, which helps
support the idea of locally heavy although largely beneficial
rainfall. Sluggish storm motion and weak shear aloft combined
with sufficient CAPE values across the area further contribute to
the idea of heavy rainfall. Ultimately, timing of individual
disturbances as well as frontal position will dictate where the
axis of heaviest rainfall sets up. At this time, that looks to be
over portions of southwest to south central Arkansas.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday

The pattern will remain unsettled in the extended period.
Looking aloft, an amplified ridge will be noted over the
western United States. A trough will extend from the Great
Lakes to the mid-Mississippi Valley and southern Plains.
The trough will slowly pivot to the north/east, with chances of
showers/thunderstorms ahead of the trough.

Toward the weekend, the trough/low pressure aloft will exit toward
the Ohio Valley. Ridging will occur over the southeast states,
including Arkansas, as the trough leaves. As the period comes to
a close, a new cutoff low may form to the west of the state, and
will head this way.

Given the pattern, rain chances in Arkansas will be mainly over
the southeast half of the state to begin the period. Precipitation
will tend to wind down by Saturday as the low kicks out, but will
return late in the weekend/early next week as the new low emerges.

For the most part, not looking at widespread heavy rain in the
long term. However, heavy downpours could result in localized
flooding in spots. Precipitation coverage will be more than the
usual this time of year.

As far as temperatures, daytime readings will be below average, and
close to average at night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  88  71  88 /  60  60  50  50
Camden AR         77  91  74  86 /  30  60  60  60
Harrison AR       72  86  68  87 /  60  50  40  30
Hot Springs AR    76  87  72  86 /  30  60  60  60
Little Rock   AR  76  89  73  86 /  40  60  60  60
Monticello AR     77  90  73  86 /  20  50  60  60
Mount Ida AR      75  86  70  86 /  40  60  60  60
Mountain Home AR  72  86  69  88 /  60  50  40  40
Newport AR        74  87  72  86 /  60  60  60  50
Pine Bluff AR     76  89  73  86 /  30  60  60  60
Russellville AR   75  88  72  87 /  60  60  60  60
Searcy AR         73  88  72  87 /  60  60  60  60
Stuttgart AR      75  87  73  86 /  30  60  60  60
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...67 / Long Term...46

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
451 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-081000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
451 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms could develop this afternoon, mainly across
northern portions of the state, although a stray thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out elsewhere. Lightning, gusty winds, and heavy
rain will be possible with any storms.

In addition, an approaching front will bring increased chances of
rain -- some heavy -- beginning late this evening and into
tonight. The initial threat for heavy rain and isolated flooding will
be across northern Arkansas with the threat spreading south over
time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

As the cold front pushes further south, heavy rain will
overspread much of the area. Isolated flooding will be possible
anywhere along or near the front, which will remain nearly
stationary over western, central, and southern Arkansas through
late week. Isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out, although
the threat for widespread severe weather remains low. Additional
rainfall will be possible through the weekend and into next week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not likely today or tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

Cooper/Brown/Jones

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1227 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

ARZ003-004-071815-
Marion AR-Boone AR-
1227 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION AND BOONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1226 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Capps, or 5 miles west of Harrison, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Harrison...                       Diamond City...
Bergman...                        Lead Hill...
Pyatt...                          Olvey...
Myrtle...                         Dodd City...
Capps...                          Willis...
Red Bank...                       Clark Hill...
Winington...                      Bellefonte...
Alpena...                         Zinc...
South Lead Hill...                Batavia...
Bear Creek Springs...             Hopewell in Boone County...

LAT...LON 3648 9285 3622 9274 3614 9330 3633 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 252DEG 19KT 3625 9323

46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

ARZ004-005-071815-
Baxter AR-Marion AR-
1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MARION AND NORTHERN
BAXTER COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1243 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bull Shoals, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain Home...                  Bull Shoals...
Lakeview in Baxter County...      Arkawana...
Price Place...                    Ozark Regional Airport...
Gamaliel Landing...               Fawn Park...
Bull Shoals State Park...         Ozark Isle...
Midway in Baxter County...        Fairview in Marion County...
Clarkridge...                     Gamaliel...
Oakland...                        Three Brothers...
Henderson...                      Norfork Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3640 9215 3639 9215 3632 9260 3649 9267
      3650 9265 3650 9219
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 252DEG 16KT 3643 9255

67

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1254 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

ARZ003-004-071830-
Marion AR-Boone AR-
1254 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MARION AND
SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

At 1254 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Everton, or 10 miles southwest of Yellville, moving east at 25
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Yellville...                      Flippin...
Crawford...                       Rush...
Summit...                         Everton...
Eros...                           Bruno...
Ralph...

LAT...LON 3630 9260 3613 9253 3612 9276 3611 9284
      3612 9291 3619 9295
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 254DEG 19KT 3615 9285

46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
225 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

ARZ023-072015-
Van Buren AR-
225 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN VAN BUREN COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 225 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Claude, or 11 miles west of Clinton. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Claude...                         Beverage Town...
Alread...                         Rupert...
Crabtree...                       Scotland...
Culpepper...                      Formosa...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 9250 3546 9276 3567 9276 3567 9249
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 284DEG 2KT 3556 9265

57

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
258 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

ARZ014-023-024-072030-
Stone AR-Van Buren AR-Cleburne AR-
258 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN STONE...NORTHEASTERN
VAN BUREN AND NORTHWESTERN CLEBURNE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Old Lexington, or 9 miles north of Clinton, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton...                        Fairfield Bay...
Shirley...                        Elba...
Old Lexington...                  Edgemont...
Parma...                          Prim...
Rushing...                        Turkey Creek...
Hill Creek Recreation Area...     Fox...
Arlberg...                        Brewer...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 9213 3560 9209 3560 9247 3578 9251
      3579 9244 3579 9242 3580 9242
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 261DEG 16KT 3571 9240

57

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