Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
627 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Whatever isolated convection ongoing early this evening will
dissipate shortly after sunset. While some patchy fog will be
possible overnight...widespread fog is not expected. A cold front
will be dropping south into the state late in the period...with
increased chances for SHRA/TSRA for NRN sections of the state as a
result.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 256 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

In case you were wondering, it's disgusting outside. Temperatures
in the 90s. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. I'm ready for fall
now. But, since reality dictates otherwise...

Isolated showers/storms have developed along remnant mesoscale
boundaries left over from this morning's convection. These will
continue into the early evening, should primarily be confined to
central and east central Arkansas, and should dissipate after
sunset.

Bigger rain chances will come tomorrow afternoon and evening, as
the anomalously strong upper ridge centered over west Texas/
northern Mexico will allow a cold front currently in the plains to
move across Arkansas. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along
and ahead of the front, with a few severe thunderstorms possible.
This would be most likely in the afternoon and evening hours.

With any severe thunderstorms that develop, winds will be the
primary concern, though hail would be possible as well. With high
precipitable water over and fairly light low level storm motion,
heavy rainfall will be a possibility with any stronger storms,
which could cause localized flooding issues.

Ahead of the front, temperatures will rise well into the 90s. With
the high dewpoints over us, heat index values will continue to be
a concern. Some areas may briefly exceed 105 degrees, but my
feeling at the moment is that this shouldn't last long, given
increasing cloud cover tomorrow afternoon. So, for now, am
holding off on any heat-related headlines.

Rain chances will decrease late Saturday night/early Sunday
morning as the front moves south of the the state. Cooler air
will follow the front, with the period ending with temperatures
much closer to average.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

The front that moved through during the near term will be to
the southwest of Arkansas before stalling. The front will
come to a halt because of a ridge of high pressure over the
southern Rockies/southern Plains. In the wake of the front,
slightly cooler/drier/more comfortable air will be in place.
Even so, temperatures will remain a little above average.

It appears the ridge will start building back toward the area
Monday night/Tuesday. As this happens, the aforementioned front will
lift back into the region from the southwest. Given this, have
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

By Thursday/Friday, the ridge will be more dominant, and
temperatures will be on the way up. Heat index values may
approach 100 degrees in southern/western sections of the
state on Friday.

Fire Weather...
No significant fire weather issues are expected in the next seven
days.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...62

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
930 AM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
930 AM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through
this afternoon in the northeast half of Arkansas, or generally north
and east of Little Rock.

Otherwise, it will be hot and humid today. Afternoon heat index
values will range from the upper 90s to near 105 degrees, with the
highest values across the western, central, and southern counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday

Hot and humid conditions will continue on Saturday. Afternoon heat
index values will range from the upper 90s to around 105 degrees.

A cold front will cross the state from the north Saturday night,
with slightly cooler and drier air in its wake. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, and
some storms may be severe.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed Saturday night.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

ARZ033-045-046-012345-
White AR-Lonoke AR-Prairie AR-
605 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PRAIRIE...
NORTHEASTERN LONOKE AND SOUTH CENTRAL WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
CDT...

At 604 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McRae, or 12 miles south of Searcy, moving south at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Barrettsville...                  Thurman...
McRae...                          Vinity Corner...
Butlerville...                    Hickory Plains...
Woodlawn...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 9185 3511 9170 3485 9165 3486 9189
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 358DEG 16KT 3506 9177

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
609 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

ARZ057-065-012345-
Desha AR-Arkansas AR-
609 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DESHA AND
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 609 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gillett, or 15 miles west of White River National Wildlife Refuge,
moving south at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gillett...                        Watson...
Yancopin...                       Merrisach Lake...
Trusten Holder WMA...             Arkansas Post...
Morgan Point Recreation Area...   Pendleton...
Tichnor...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3415 9144 3421 9135 3421 9125 3392 9107
      3386 9138
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 343DEG 15KT 3412 9132

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
725 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

ARZ045-046-020100-
Lonoke AR-Prairie AR-
725 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PRAIRIE AND EAST CENTRAL
LONOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 724 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McCreanor, or near Lonoke, moving south at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lonoke...                         Carlisle...
McCreanor...                      Prairie Center...
Sisemore...                       Parkers Corner...
Culler...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 9190 3490 9183 3489 9174 3465 9163
      3462 9188
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 346DEG 15KT 3484 9181

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
734 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

ARZ032-044-020115-
Pulaski AR-Faulkner AR-
734 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FAULKNER AND
NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 733 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Vilonia, or 12 miles east of Conway, moving south at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Little Rock AFB...                Vilonia...
Olmstead...                       Gibson...
Holland...                        Saltillo...
Macon...                          Otto...
Cato...                           Hamlet...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 9227 3517 9216 3490 9212 3493 9238
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 010DEG 9KT 3513 9224

62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
821 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

ARZ032-044>046-056-057-020200-
Pulaski AR-Lonoke AR-Arkansas AR-Prairie AR-Faulkner AR-Jefferson AR-
821 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PRAIRIE...LONOKE...
SOUTH CENTRAL FAULKNER...NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...PULASKI AND
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 820 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Gibson to South Bend to 7 miles northeast of
Keo to Stuttgart. Movement was south at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Little Rock...                    North Little Rock...
Sherwood...                       Jacksonville...
Cabot...                          West Little Rock...
Maumelle...                       Downtown Little Rock...
Stuttgart...                      Lonoke...
North Little Rock Airport...      Little Rock AFB...
Southwest Little Rock...          England...
Mayflower...                      Carlisle...
Wrightsville...                   Argenta...
Humphrey...                       Humnoke...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3414 9138 3437 9188 3471 9250 3504 9241
      3497 9202 3483 9183 3463 9147 3463 9145
      3461 9145 3459 9138 3456 9138 3456 9134
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 355DEG 14KT 3491 9222 3487 9206 3467 9191 3451
9156

62