Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
303 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday
The pattern will feature a stalled boundary across Arkansas
through at least Thursday, with the boundary washing out on
Friday. Looking aloft, a ridge will be over portions of the
southern Rockies/southern Plains, with broad troughing from
eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas to the southeast states.
Precipitable water values as of this morning were around 1.70
inches at North Little Rock, which is well above average.

Given an unsettled pattern, scattered thunderstorms remain in the
forecast through the near term. Precipitation will mostly occur
during the heat of the afternoon/early evening, and will tend to
fall apart after dark.

Any severe weather the next couple of days will be spotty,
with strong/damaging winds possible in places. An even bigger
concern will be localized flooding due to very heavy downpours
and little storm movement.

As storms fall apart at night and there is clearing with
light winds, look for patchy and lowering visibilities in
places.

As far as temperatures, readings will generally be above
average through the period.
&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Arkansas will remain under the eastern edge of an upper level ridge
for the bulk of the forecast period. With an absence of any frontal
boundaries moving through the area, I would typically go with a
forecast of above normal temperatures, humid conditions, and
scattered showers and thunderstorms - primarily during the afternoon
and evening hours.

However, there is an elephant lurking in the room, which is a
possible tropical cyclone developing in the Gulf. I believe the
latest NHC estimates are calling for a 60 pct chance of formation,
and the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are on board with that,
albeit with considerably different solutions.

The GFS takes a fairly weak system into Florida, while the Canadian
spins up a bit stronger system and takes it into the LA/MS
coastline. The ECMWF takes the system further west than the
Canadian, although it weakens it considerably before landfall.

Long story short, I don't have a whole lot of confidence in what the
models are throwing out right now, but there is a better than
average chance that something will form - and it could certainly
have an impact on the weather across portions of AR, namely in the
form of increased moisture and precipitation.

I hedged the forecast a bit from Sunday onwards, but if a system
develops and moves anywhere near the LA coast, we will likely see
significant deviations from what I am forecasting in the grids -
namely increased cloudiness and precipitation, higher dewpoints, and
lower max temperatures.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  88  67  88 /  30  20  20  40
Camden AR         69  90  69  90 /  30  40  20  40
Harrison AR       63  84  65  84 /  30  40  20  40
Hot Springs AR    68  88  68  89 /  30  40  20  40
Little Rock   AR  70  88  70  89 /  30  40  20  40
Monticello AR     71  88  70  88 /  30  40  20  40
Mount Ida AR      66  87  66  88 /  30  50  20  40
Mountain Home AR  65  86  65  86 /  30  30  20  40
Newport AR        70  89  69  88 /  30  20  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     70  88  70  89 /  30  40  20  40
Russellville AR   69  87  68  88 /  40  50  20  40
Searcy AR         68  88  68  88 /  30  30  20  40
Stuttgart AR      71  89  71  88 /  30  30  20  40
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...46 / Long Term...53

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
204 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

ARZ056-064-231945-
Lincoln AR-Jefferson AR-
204 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND
WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 203 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking scattered strong
thunderstorms from 5 miles southeast of Pine Bluff to just south of
Star City. The storms were nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pine Bluff...                     Star City...
Grady...                          Nebo...
Feenyville...                     Cottondale...
Whitefield...                     Linwood...
Cane Creek State Park...          Madding...
Tarry...                          Tamo...
Palmyra...                        Rose Hill...
Moscow...                         Crigler...
Glenlake...                       Glendale in Lincoln County...
Calhoun...                        Pinebergen...

LAT...LON 3398 9197 3398 9195 3406 9195 3407 9199
      3425 9204 3426 9176 3384 9166 3381 9192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 086DEG 8KT 3415 9185 3389 9182

46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
341 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

ARZ043-044-232130-
Pulaski AR-Saline AR-
341 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL SALINE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 340 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Shannon Hills, or near Bryant. This storm was nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Little Rock...                    Bryant...
Southwest Little Rock...          Shannon Hills...
Otter Creek...                    Mabelvale...
East End...                       Alexander...
Sardis...                         Vimy Ridge...
Parkers-Iron Springs...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 9245 3466 9231 3452 9233 3453 9247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 014DEG 1KT 3460 9239

44

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