Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
218 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon, as a
mesoscale convective vortex has developed in eastern Oklahoma,
with another one south of that. These systems will move through
Arkansas this afternoon and tonight, with showers and
thunderstorms continuing.

Given the amount of instability present, some strong to briefly
severe thunderstorms are possible, with winds and marginally
severe hail the primary threats. With slow low level storm motion,
and high precipitable water, stronger storms will also have the
capability to produce localized heavy rainfall.

Showers/storms from the systems this evening will shift
southeastward along a remnant frontal boundary later tonight.
Additional development will be possible on Thursday, as upper
level troughing elongates over the mid south region. Again, we
could see some marginally strong storms.

By Friday, upper ridging will build back into the region, with
rain chances decreasing.
&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
An upper level ridge axis will be shifting east over the state at
the start of the long term period. This will keep precip chances
limited for Sat...though a weak upper disturbance looks to still try
to generate some isolated convection for Sat afternoon.
Otherwise...expect highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s Sat afternoon.
The ridge will drop SE over time by Sun...with more of a SW flow
aloft developing by late Sun. This will allow for a bit cooler
conditions for Sun...and maybe a better chance for some isolated
afternoon convection.

Better precip chances will arrive early next week as there will be
even less influence from upper level ridging...and with some
additional weak disturbances moving over the region as the flow
aloft becomes more zonal. Temps will cool off slightly as a
result...and best rain chances will be on Mon and Tue. Even
so...keep only chance POPs mentioned. Have decreasing POPs by the
end of the forecast...mainly for increased uncertainty that far out
in time...but also as the flow transitions to a more NW direction.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  82  63  86 /  30  30  10  30
Camden AR         65  87  66  91 /  40  20  20  20
Harrison AR       62  79  60  83 /  20  20  10  40
Hot Springs AR    65  86  66  89 /  40  30  10  30
Little Rock   AR  67  86  66  89 /  40  30  10  30
Monticello AR     69  87  68  91 /  40  30  20  30
Mount Ida AR      62  85  64  88 /  30  30  10  30
Mountain Home AR  64  80  59  85 /  20  20  10  30
Newport AR        68  82  65  87 /  30  40  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     68  87  67  90 /  40  30  20  30
Russellville AR   66  84  64  86 /  30  30  10  40
Searcy AR         66  83  64  88 /  30  30  10  30
Stuttgart AR      70  86  67  89 /  40  30  10  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...57 / Long Term...62

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171745-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
1245 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into tonight,
primarily over the western, central, and southern portions of
Arkansas. Strong winds and hail will be the primary threats. Some
of the stronger storms will also be capable of producing localized
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be in the forecast from
Thursday through the early part of next week. Although widespread
severe weather is not expected, locally strong winds and isolated
heavy rainfall may still be seen with some of the stronger storms.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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