Flash Flood Warning 128, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
249 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Afternoon visible satellite imagery shows a well defined cold
front extending from a surface low north of the Great Lakes region
southwestward across central Arkansas into Texas. A secondary
reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air is making its way from
the north providing temperatures in the 60s and dewpoints in the
50s as far south as southeast Kansas.

While more comfortable conditions will begin to slowly filter
in from the north, abundant moisture will continue to stream over
the area from the south. The observed PW value from our 12z KLZK
sounding was around 1.8" with an overall increase into the 2-2.25"
range through the overnight hours. With this continued supply of
abundant moisture and the influence of isentropic lift over the
cold front stalling over the area, widespread heavy rainfall is
expected.

Rainfall amounts haven't changed significantly with this forecast
package, with the area of main concern for flash flooding remaining
across western parts of Arkansas. Portions of the Ouachitas and
the Ozarks could see 4-6" of rainfall with locally higher amounts this
weekend and those venturing into remote areas should be aware of
their surroundings and avoid camping in low lying areas.
Elsewhere, rainfall amounts of 2-4" will be common.

While heavy rainfall will and should be the main weather story in
the coming days, much more pleasant air will filter in to the
state. Morning lows across northern Arkansas may dip down into the
upper 50s Saturday and Sunday morning with high temperatures in
these areas only in the 60s to lower 70s. Elsewhere, temperatures
will be more comfortable than in recent days but not quite as cool
as northern Arkansas.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

Expect the weather to remain unsettled through the work week as
nearly zonal flow turns back to the southwest. This will provide
additional taps into the Gulf moisture ahead of yet another
deepening trough. Models suggest multiple progressive synoptic
features will roll through the region with timing of each of these
boundaries to be fine tuned in later forecasts. For now, kept at
least chance pops in with areal averages close to WPC guidance. The
high temps will be closer to seasonal norms through the week, which
is about 10 degrees cooler than this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  67  61  73 /  90  90  60  60
Camden AR         73  77  66  81 /  70  70  60  50
Harrison AR       60  66  59  73 /  90  90  30  40
Hot Springs AR    69  72  64  76 /  90  80  70  60
Little Rock   AR  67  71  64  76 /  90  80  70  60
Monticello AR     73  81  68  81 /  60  70  70  60
Mount Ida AR      68  71  62  76 /  90  90  70  60
Mountain Home AR  60  68  59  74 /  90  90  40  40
Newport AR        63  66  62  73 /  90  90  60  70
Pine Bluff AR     70  73  66  78 /  80  70  70  60
Russellville AR   67  70  64  75 /  90  90  50  60
Searcy AR         65  69  63  74 /  90  90  70  70
Stuttgart AR      68  72  65  76 /  90  70  70  70
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
morning FOR Baxter-Boone-Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-
Independence-Izard-Johnson-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Montgomery-Newton-
Perry-Polk-Pope-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van
Buren-White-Yell.

&&

Short Term...67 / Long Term...61

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
423 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-221000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
423 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day
and overnight, especially across areas along and north of the
interstate 30/highway 67 corridor. Heavy rainfall, with a
corresponding flash flood potential, will be a threat late
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms, some producing heavy rainfall will
continue to affect the same areas Saturday through Sunday.
The flash flooding threat will continue through at least early
Sunday. Unsettled weather conditions will continue into early next
week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be required late tonight through Sunday
morning.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
143 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

ARZ022-031-211930-
Pope AR-Conway AR-
143 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CONWAY AND SOUTHEASTERN
POPE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 142 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Petit Jean State Park, or 8 miles west of Morrilton, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Atkins...                         St. Vincent...
Hattieville...                    Happy Bend...
Petit Jean State Park...          Economy...
Kenwood...                        Macedonia in Conway County...
Blackwell...                      Wonderview...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 9271 3511 9287 3513 9297 3517 9293
      3517 9298 3538 9291
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 216DEG 8KT 3515 9290

61

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