Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
726 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.AVIATION...

An area of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into
Arkansas this evening and these will bring thunderstorms to KHRO
and KBPK. Otherwise VFR conditions will be see through the TAF
period. A second area of showers and thunderstorms will move
through the state on Friday from the North to the South. This line
will reach KPBF and KLLQ before OOZ Sat.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 245 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday
Much to my disgust, dewpoints in much of central and southern
Arkansas have risen into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Even though
temperatures aren't too far from average highs, the combination of
this and the high humidity have necessitated a short-duration
heat advisory for the remainder of the afternoon and into the
early evening.

Focus shifts to potential convection tonight. Though there are
already some showers along outflow over southeast Arkansas, the
higher convective potential will be later tonight, as a more
potent upper trough digs down into the mid-Mississippi Valley and
pushes a surface front into the region. Initially, there will be a
round of showers and thunderstorms as one shortwave swings through
northern Arkansas in the mean flow late tonight and early Friday
morning.

There should be a couple more rounds of showers and thunderstorms
Friday and Friday night, as the front sinks further south into
Arkansas and more upper systems move through in the mean flow and
interact with it.

On Saturday, rain chances will decrease in the north, as drier air
pushes in behind the front. Ahead of the boundary, showers/storms
will continue.

LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Unsettled conditions are expected during at least the first half of
this period.

The upper flow across the U.S. is forecast to amplify during this
period, with an increase in amplitude of the western U.S. ridge
expected.  Slow moving upper level energy is expected to move south
from the mid Mississippi valley early in the period. An associated
cold front will also slowly approach.

Several rounds of precipitation are expected to affect the mid south
accordingly, before the system(s) clear to the southeast. Forecasts
will reflect temporal forecast uncertainties.

FIRE WEATHER...
No significant fire weather issues are expected through the next
seven days. Rain chances will continue into mid-week next week.
Minimum humidity will remain high through the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-
Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pope-
Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

Aviation...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
955 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
955 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
later this afternoon and evening, especially across northern
sections of the state. A few storms will approach severe limits,
with gusty winds the primary concern.

The focus will then turn to the possibility of heavy rain tonight
and into Friday. An upper level impulse and a very moist airmass
will likely result in areas of heavy rain across the northern and
especially the northwest parts of the state.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms with potentially heavy rain will be
ongoing across mainly the northern part of the state early
Friday. Localized flash flooding will remain a concern.

The unsettled weather pattern will continue into the weekend and
early next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms each
day. Initially, precipitation will be concentrated over northern
and central sections of the state. As the week progresses, rain
will affect the southern counties as well.

The main headliner in the coming days will be the heavy rain
potential. Widespread two to four inch amounts are expected across
the northern and central counties, and there could be locally more.
Given this much rain, high water problems could become an issue.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Limited spotter activation may be required this afternoon and
evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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