Gale Warning 9, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
221 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure will move east off the New England coast
through tonight. High pressure will approach the area Saturday
and Sunday before building overhead Sunday night into Monday.
Low pressure may impact the area Tuesday and Wednesday of next
week and high pressure will return for late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Very strong low pressure will slowly move east off the New
England Coast through tonight. A strong pressure gradient
between the low off the New England Coast and high pressure over
the Great Lakes will continue to cause very windy conditions
through tonight. Cold advection and pressure rises continue to
cause a deep mixing layer close to 4-5kft and this is evident in
the special 18z KIAD RAOB. Winds at the top of the mixing layer
are around 50 to 60 knots. Given the deep mixing layer, wind
gusts around 50 to 65 mph are likely through the rest of this
afternoon and into this evening.

There have been numerous reports of trees down and this may
impact travelers so if you do have to travel be extra careful
and allow plenty of time to get to your destination.
Also...pedestrians will face very hazardous conditions, and need
to be aware of wind-borne projectiles.

The gradient will gradually weaken later tonight as the low
shifts farther east off the New England Coast. Weak cold
advection should still be enough to cause mixing...but the
mixing layer should not be as deep after sunset. Latest guidance
still shows 925mb winds around 40 to 50 knots throughout the
night and given the cold advection these winds certainly can mix
down. Wind gusts around 35 to 55 mph are most likely during
this time with the strongest gusts expected across the
Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas into southern
Maryland and near the Chesapeake Bay. Gusts around 60 mph will
continue along the ridges. The High Wind Warning remains in
effect through tonight but it may be able to be cancelled early,
especially for valley locations west of the Blue Ridge
Mountains and across the Virginia Piedmont where the gradient
will weaken a bit faster.

A few upslope snow showers will continue through the rest of
this afternoon but any additional accumulation will be light.
Wrap around moisture will cause mostly cloudy skies and perhaps
a few rain or snow showers near the Bay this afternoon and
evening. Any precipitation will be light. Elsewhere it will be
dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will approach the area Saturday and gusty
northwest winds are expected ahead of the building high.
However, it will not be nearly as windy as Friday. Frequent
gusts around 30 to 45 mph are expected with the highest gusts
across the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas toward
the Bay where the gradient will be a bit stronger. Across the
ridges, higher gusts are possible around 50 to 55 mph. A Wind
Advisory may be needed for portions of the area Saturday but
confidence is too low to issue one at this time. High pressure
will build overhead Saturday night through Sunday night and
winds will continue to diminish. Dry and seasonable temperatures
are expected during this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry conditions expected on Monday as high pressure
remains in control. A low pressure system and it associated cold
front will approach our region on Tuesday. The surface low
pressure system will be moving east across the Ohio Valley and
as it approaches the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday, it will
transfer its energy to a low pressure offshore that will then
intensify as it moves northeast into Thursday. Unsettled weather
is expected as this system approaches with rain possible as
early as Monday night and into Wednesday, with possible snow
showers mainly west of the Allegheny front... but cannot rule
out that some make it to areas west of Blue Ridge.

High temperatures will be mainly in the 40s and some 50s, with
30s at higher elevations. Low temperatures will be in the 20s
and 30s, with maybe some 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High impact wind expected across the region through this
evening. Frequent gusts around 40 to 55 knots are expected
during this time.

Winds will gradually diminish later tonight but gusts around 35
to 45 knots are still expected. Winds will continue through
Saturday with gusts 30 to 40 knots most likely and winds will
continue to diminish Saturday night through Sunday night as
high pressure builds overhead. VFR conditions are expected
during this time.

VFR conditions expected Monday. Rain showers
expected to start on Tuesday and remain into Wednesday, maybe
Thursday, causing sub-VFR conditions over the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low pressure will move east off the New England Coast
through tonight. Strong winds will continue due to a very strong
pressure gradient with frequent gusts around 45 to 55 knots
expected. A Storm Warning is in effect for the waters through
tonight. Winds will gradually diminish Saturday through Saturday
night, but gusty winds will continue. Northwest winds will gust
around 30 to 45 knots Saturday so a Gale Warning is in effect.
It is not out of the question a few gusts around 50 knots could
occur Saturday, especially during the morning hours. A Storm
Warning may be needed, but confidence was too low at this time
for a headline. Gale force winds may continue for portions of
the waters into Saturday night and a Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed Sunday.

Winds will be on the decrease on Monday and remain
below SCA criteria into Tuesday. Winds will increase Tuesday
night but are expected to remain below criteria into
Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Very strong NW winds will continue through Saturday. This will
result in tidal departures of 2 to 4 ft below normal. Tidal
anomalies will begin to recover on Sunday. With anomalies this
low, this means that water levels will be extremely low,
especially near times of low tide.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...High Wind Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for DCZ001.
MD...High Wind Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for MDZ003>006-011-
     013-014-016>018-501>508.
VA...High Wind Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for VAZ025>031-040-
     052>055-057-501>508.
     High Wind Warning until midnight EST tonight for VAZ036>039-
     050-051-056.
WV...High Wind Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for WVZ050>053-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ530>543.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ530>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR
MARINE...BJL/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL

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