Gale Warning 2, NWS Baltimore/Washington

927 
WHUS71 KLWX 122040
MWWLWX

URGENT - Marine Weather Message
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
340 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

ANZ535-536-130445-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-180113T0500Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.GL.W.0002.180113T0500Z-180113T1700Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0008.180113T1700Z-180114T1100Z/
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
340 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...18 to 33 knots within the Small Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...34 to 47 knots within the Gale Warning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means winds of 18 to 33 knots are imminent
or occurring. Boaters operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and a properly equipped vessel. Recreational boaters
should seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543-130445-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-180113T0500Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.GL.W.0002.180113T0500Z-180113T1700Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0009.180113T1700Z-180114T1100Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
340 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...18 to 33 knots within the Small Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...34 to 47 knots within the Gale Warning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means winds of 18 to 33 knots are imminent
or occurring. Boaters operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and a properly equipped vessel. Recreational boaters
should seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ530-538-542-130445-
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-180113T0500Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.GL.W.0002.180113T0500Z-180113T1700Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0008.180113T1700Z-180114T1100Z/
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
340 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...18 to 33 knots within the Small Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...34 to 47 knots within the Gale Warning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means winds of 18 to 33 knots are imminent
or occurring. Boaters operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and a properly equipped vessel. Recreational boaters
should seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

246 
WHUS71 KLWX 122207
MWWLWX

URGENT - Marine Weather Message
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
507 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543-130615-
/O.EXT.KLWX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-180112T2300Z/
/O.EXT.KLWX.GL.W.0002.180112T2300Z-180113T1700Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0009.180113T1700Z-180114T1100Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
507 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...18 to 33 knots within the Small Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...34 to 47 knots within the Gale Warning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means winds of 18 to 33 knots are imminent
or occurring. Boaters operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and a properly equipped vessel. Recreational boaters
should seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ530-538-542-130615-
/O.EXT.KLWX.SC.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-180112T2300Z/
/O.EXT.KLWX.GL.W.0002.180112T2300Z-180113T1700Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0008.180113T1700Z-180114T1100Z/
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
507 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...18 to 33 knots within the Small Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...34 to 47 knots within the Gale Warning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means winds of 18 to 33 knots are imminent
or occurring. Boaters operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and a properly equipped vessel. Recreational boaters
should seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ535-536-130615-
/O.EXT.KLWX.SC.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-180112T2300Z/
/O.EXT.KLWX.GL.W.0002.180112T2300Z-180113T1700Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0008.180113T1700Z-180114T1100Z/
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
507 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...18 to 33 knots within the Small Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...34 to 47 knots within the Gale Warning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means winds of 18 to 33 knots are imminent
or occurring. Boaters operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and a properly equipped vessel. Recreational boaters
should seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

633 
WHUS71 KLWX 130239
MWWLWX

URGENT - Marine Weather Message
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
939 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543-131045-
/O.CON.KLWX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180113T1700Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0009.180113T1700Z-180114T1100Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
939 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...18 to 33 knots within the Small Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...34 to 47 knots within the Gale Warning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means winds of 18 to 33 knots are imminent
or occurring. Boaters operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and a properly equipped vessel. Recreational boaters
should seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ530-535-536-538-542-131045-
/O.CON.KLWX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180113T1700Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0008.180113T1700Z-180114T1100Z/
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
939 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO
6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...18 to 33 knots within the Small Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...34 to 47 knots within the Gale Warning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means winds of 18 to 33 knots are imminent
or occurring. Boaters operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and a properly equipped vessel. Recreational boaters
should seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

959 
WHUS71 KLWX 130826
MWWLWX

URGENT - Marine Weather Message
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543-131630-
/O.CON.KLWX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180113T1700Z/
/O.EXT.KLWX.SC.Y.0009.180113T1700Z-180114T2200Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
326 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS...18 to 33 knots within the Small Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...34 to 47 knots within the Gale Warning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means winds of 18 to 33 knots are imminent
or occurring. Boaters operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and a properly equipped vessel. Recreational boaters
should seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ530-535-536-538-542-131630-
/O.CON.KLWX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180113T1700Z/
/O.EXT.KLWX.SC.Y.0008.180113T1700Z-180114T2200Z/
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
326 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS...18 to 33 knots within the Small Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...34 to 47 knots within the Gale Warning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means winds of 18 to 33 knots are imminent
or occurring. Boaters operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and a properly equipped vessel. Recreational boaters
should seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

498 
WHUS71 KLWX 131344
MWWLWX

URGENT - Marine Weather Message
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
844 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543-132145-
/O.CON.KLWX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180113T1700Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0009.180113T1700Z-180114T2200Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
844 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM
EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...18 to 33 knots within the Small Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...34 to 47 knots within the Gale Warning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means winds of 18 to 33 knots are imminent
or occurring. Boaters operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and a properly equipped vessel. Recreational boaters
should seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ530-535-536-538-542-132145-
/O.CON.KLWX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180113T1700Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0008.180113T1700Z-180114T2200Z/
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
844 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM
EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...18 to 33 knots within the Small Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...34 to 47 knots within the Gale Warning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means winds of 18 to 33 knots are imminent
or occurring. Boaters operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and a properly equipped vessel. Recreational boaters
should seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

DHOF

186 
WHUS71 KLWX 131702
MWWLWX

URGENT - Marine Weather Message
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1202 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543-140115-
/O.EXP.KLWX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180113T1700Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-180114T2200Z/
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-
1202 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WINDS...18 to 33 knots within the Small Craft Advisory.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means winds of 18 to 33 knots are imminent
or occurring. Boaters operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ530-535-536-538-542-140115-
/O.EXP.KLWX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180113T1700Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-180114T2200Z/
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
1202 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WINDS...18 to 33 knots within the Small Craft Advisory.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means winds of 18 to 33 knots are imminent
or occurring. Boaters operating smaller vessels should avoid
navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1003 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure developing in the Tennessee Valley today will pass
near the area tonight, dragging a cold front eastward early
Saturday morning. High pressure of Canadian origin will build
across the region through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A southerly flow will continue to usher in unusually warm and
moist air through this afternoon. Max temps will be well into
the 60s for most areas and a few locations may even reach 70
degrees...especially across central Virginia.

The warm and moist air will cause plenty of clouds along with
some showers. The most widespread rain will be along/east of
Interstate 95 through early this afternoon due to the low-level
jet. However...the low-level jet will depart and there will be
breaks in the precipitation across these areas this afternoon.
Elsewhere...there will be frequent breaks in precipitation but
deep moisture and shortwave energy will result in showers from
time to time.

A strong cold front will approach the region this evening before
passing through overnight. Low pressure develop and as it moves
northeast along the cold front...passing through our area. A
strengthening low-level jet is expected ahead of the frontal
passage and this will cause widespread showers with the frontal
passage. Elevated instability is still progged to be in place
ahead of the frontal passage...so an isolated thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out. Do think that the threat for severe is low
since instability will be limited and elevated. However...with
the strong low-level jet in place there can be gusty showers
that develop along the cold front late this evening into the
overnight.

Guidance maintaining its signal that low-level cold air will come
rushing east behind this system. Its a question of whether the
precip will exit before the cold air arrives. Through sunrise,
believe that risk will remain west of the Blue Ridge, although
possibly along the Mason-Dixon line too. Thermally, the column would
support a change to a mix (sleet or perhaps freezing rain) if there
were still precip present. Am not completely certain what type will
dominate, and there is still time to figure it out. Do have a likely
wintry mix in the aforementioned areas, and precip changing to
snow in the mtns (with a couple of inches accum possible).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The precip type challenges that dominate northern/western
sections tonight spread east to the rest of the area Saturday
morning. At the same time, precip will be exiting to the
northeast. The ECMWF remains about the slowest solution with
regard to the qpf and thus its the coldest solution. Am leaning
upon NAM/NAMnest/HiResW-ARW, which is a bit faster than the
Euro wrt qpf timing, but not nearly as fast as the GFS. This
means that PoPs drop off to about 20-30%, but with the same type
thoughts (possibly a wintry mix before ending, but low
confidence).

Even in the mountains, precip shuts off during Saturday morning as
the Great Lakes (especially Erie) is frozen. Additional snow
accumulation will be minimal.

For the rest of the weekend, the story will be the cold. Saturday
will be windy too (20-30 mph), so wind chills will be an issue. Am
not straying far from blended temperature guidance. That suggests
that temperatures will fall most of the day Saturday, to a low in
the teens Saturday night. Sunday nights lows will be similar.
Temperatures likely won't get above freezing Sunday.  The lowest
wind chills likely will be Saturday night, as the gradient relaxes
as high pressure nears on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Arctic high pressure will begin to retreat Monday as an Alberta
clipper tracks across the midwest Mon into the eastern Great Lks by
mid next week. Clipper will be generally weakening as it moves east
into an area of strong high pressure over Atlantic Canada but it may
still be able to bring a period of very light snow (less than 0.1
inches liquid equivalent) Tue-Tue night as it crosses the area. A
new surge of modified Arctic air will follow behind it Wed. A
moderating trend in temperatures is set to begin next weekend Jan 20-
21 as east coast trough lifts out and heights rise.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through this afternoon.
There will be showers around...especially across the eastern
terminals through midday. LIFR conditions are possible right
along the Bay for KMTN.

A cold front/low pressure system will track across the terminals
tonight, providing a better opportunity for showers with brief LIFR
conditions and perhaps with gusty winds. After that, winds will veer
northwest, and increase to 15-25 kt. Timing will be predawn. There
is a slight chance that cold air will arrive before all precip
departs. If this occurs, then rain would change over to a wintry mix
before ending. Low confidence on specifics, but worth mentioning.

The weekend and beginning of next week will feature VFR
conditions and northwest winds. The strongest winds will be
Saturday into Saturday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
A southerly flow will continue through this afternoon. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect...but it will be marginal due
to the relatively cooler waters.

The gradient will increase tonight...so a Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for the waters. The advisory extends through
Saturday into Saturday evening...when mixing profiles much more
favorable behind a cold front. This likely will need to be
continued into Saturday night, and perhaps Sunday. A Gale
Warning may be needed for portions of the waters overnight
through Saturday morning from a pressure surge behind the cold
front.

It remains possible to get brief gales just behind the cold front
early Saturday morning. Will continue to include this potential in
the synopsis due to continued uncertainties.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Warm conditions are expected again today-tonight, along with
periods of rain. Break up of ice may cause localized issues,
but confidence is currently too low and threat too isolated to
include in the HWO at the moment, but we will continue to
monitor.

Around one to one and a half inches of rainfall is anticipated
through tonight. While precipitable water is well above
climatology, suggesting that flooding is possible, relatively
quick movement of individual elements and dry antecedent
conditions should preclude a widespread hydrologic issue.
Limited rainfall up to this point has helped. Even though soils
are warming, absorption will still be limited, thus substantial
ponding is possible, but not enough issues are expected to need
a Flood Watch at this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Saturday for ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ530-535-536-538-542.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJL/HTS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/LFR/HTS
MARINE...BJL/LFR/HTS
HYDROLOGY...ADS/HTS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
511 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-131015-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
511 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in
central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of
Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A Gale Warning is possible on the waters late tonight into
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053-
055-501>506-131015-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-
Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland-
Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-
Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
511 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern West Virginia,
northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland
with the exception of Garrett County.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A period of light freezing rain is possible late tonight which may
cause travel disruptions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LFR