Wind Advisory 16, NWS Lubbock, TX

Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

418 
WWUS74 KLUB 140156 AAB
NPWLUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
856 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018


TXZ021>030-033>035-039>041-140300-
/O.CAN.KLUB.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-180414T0200Z/
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-
Including the cities of Friona, Bovina, Farwell, Dimmitt, Hart, 
Tulia, Happy, Silverton, Quitaque, Turkey, Memphis, Childress, 
Kirkland, Muleshoe, Littlefield, Amherst, Olton, Plainview, 
Hale Center, Floydada, Lockney, Morton, Whiteface, Levelland, 
Sundown, Lubbock, Wolfforth, Slaton, Denver City, Plains, 
Brownfield, Meadow, Wellman, Tahoka, New Home, and ODonnell
856 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Lubbock has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

Winds have dropped below advisory levels and will remain so
through the overnight hours.

$$

TXZ031-032-036>038-042>044-140400-
/O.EXT.KLUB.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-180414T0400Z/
Motley-Cottle-Crosby-Dickens-King-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
Including the cities of Matador, Roaring Springs, Paducah, 
Cee Vee, Ralls, Crosbyton, Spur, Dickens, Dumont, Guthrie, Post, 
Lake Alan Henry, Jayton, Aspermont, and Old Glory
856 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...Until 11 PM this evening.

* WINDS...Northwesterly at 25 to 35 mph with some gusts to 45 mph. 

* IMPACTS...Motorists will encounter strong crosswinds. Blowing
  dust may restrict visibilities. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 30 to 39 mph are
expected. Adjust travel and outdoor activities accordingly.

&&

$$

436 
WWUS74 KLUB 140300 AAC
NPWLUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1000 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

TXZ031-032-036>038-042>044-140400-
/O.CAN.KLUB.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-180414T0400Z/
Motley-Cottle-Crosby-Dickens-King-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
Including the cities of Matador, Roaring Springs, Paducah, 
Cee Vee, Ralls, Crosbyton, Spur, Dickens, Dumont, Guthrie, Post, 
Lake Alan Henry, Jayton, Aspermont, and Old Glory
1000 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Lubbock has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

Winds have dropped below advisory levels and will remain so
through the night.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
646 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.AVIATION...
FROPA with northwesterly wind shift should be through all the
terminals by the beginning of the TAF cycle at 00Z. Gusty
post-frontal northwesterly winds will gradually weaken through
late evening, but will renew in spirit after sunrise Saturday and
continue at 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts through much of
Saturday. Aside from the winds, a few showers (and isolated
thunderstorms) may affect KPVW the next few hours, but should
diminish before impacting the other terminals. A brief period of
sub-VFR conditions could accompanying the showers, though
confidence in this is low and have exclude from the TAF. In
general VFR should prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Fortunately, high winds have spared much of the CWA thus far this
afternoon thanks to a bifurcation in the 850mb wind field. Surface
observations and short term models clearly show a weakness in
these winds from the South Plains through the Rolling Plains, with
occasional high wind criteria noted farther north and also to our
south in portions of the Permian Basin. As a vort lobe continues
dropping SSE this evening from its present location near Tucumcari,
a cold front will sweep south ahead of more tolerable northerly
wind speeds. Additionally, very cold air of minus 26C at 500mb
within this vort max should spur at least a couple more waves of
high-based showers across the western Panhandle, likely reaching
a few of our far NW counties through the evening. Expectation is
for this activity to diminish markedly later in the evening before
profiles cool enough to support some light snow - which did occur
earlier this afternoon at Clayton, NM.

With the passage of the parent upper trough axis early Saturday
morning, an enhanced northerly gradient flow will be poised over
the eastern 2/3rds of our CWA through much of the day. Deeper
mixing by mid-morning looks to tap into a layer of 30 knots at
850mb, likely resulting in a Wind Advisory in later forecasts.
Opted to refrain from issuing this now as the current High Wind
Warning takes precedence. Surface ridging and lighter north winds
by Saturday night should set the stage for a light freeze for
most/all of the region. This may warrant a Freeze Watch at some
point for our southernmost counties which have already surpassed
their average last freeze dates.

Transient upper ridging for Sunday and Monday will herald a steady
return to milder temps, before the base of the next trough grazes
the region on Tue complete with more wind and wildfire concerns.
Thereafter, the progressive and fast westerly flow looks to
slacken ahead of a deeper and more southerly positioned upper low
west of the region. This wave should encourage a steady return of
Gulf moisture to much of the region by late week. For now, have
opted for 20-40 PoPs region wide from Thursday night through
Friday given an increasingly favorable upper flow regime
(meridional and moist) ahead of the low.

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical wildfire conditions remain region wide this afternoon,
however the most volatile conditions are generally shifting to the
south and east of the WFO Lubbock forecast area ahead of cooler
temperatures. Still, westerly winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts
near 60 mph at times will fuel the rapid spread of any fires within
favorable fuel loads. A cold front currently running from near
Vega northeast to Spearman will spread south this evening ahead
of northerly winds around 15 to 20 mph. This wind shift should
reach the Muleshoe to Tulia area around 5-6 PM, and Lubbock from
7-8 PM. Otherwise, cooler but continued windy conditions on
Saturday may fuel some elevated to critical fire weather mainly
off the Caprock. Any additional headlines will be considered more
closely in later forecasts.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

&&

23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
214 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

TXZ021>044-140000-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
214 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong westerly winds of 30 to 45 mph with occasional gusts near
60 mph will continue over the region through early evening. A High
Wind Warning remains in effect until 7 PM. These winds and very
dry air will also prolong a threat for critical wildfire behavior.
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 PM for the entire
outlook area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Northerly winds on Saturday could reach sustained speeds of 30
mph or greater. A Wind Advisory may be issued in later forecasts.
These winds may also foster a threat for elevated to critical
wildfire growth, mainly off the Caprock. Also, a widespread light
freeze is possible by Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
145 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WSW AIKEN             34.13N 101.57W
04/13/2018  M59 MPH          HALE               TX   MESONET

            WEST TEXAS MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1800003

CALDRICH