Wind Advisory 1, NWS Lubbock, TX

622 
WWUS74 KLUB 072024
NPWLUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
224 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

TXZ022-023-027>029-033>035-039>041-072130-
/O.CAN.KLUB.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180107T2100Z/
Castro-Swisher-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-
Including the cities of Dimmitt, Hart, Tulia, Happy, Muleshoe, 
Littlefield, Amherst, Olton, Plainview, Hale Center, Morton, 
Whiteface, Levelland, Sundown, Lubbock, Wolfforth, Slaton, 
Denver City, Plains, Brownfield, Meadow, Wellman, Tahoka, 
New Home, and ODonnell
224 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Lubbock has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

Gusty north winds will continue to diminish late this afternoon -
and will remain mostly under 30 mph.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
540 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

.AVIATION...
Middle and high level cloudiness will continue to lower this
morning, with a few light rain showers even possible at the
terminals. VFR should be the general rule though a brief dip to
MVFR is not completely out of the question. Southerly to westerly
breezes this morning will abruptly shift to the north behind a
FROPA toward midday. Current projections have the FROPA around
17Z at KPVW and near 18Z at KLBB and KCDS. Northerly winds
sustained at 20 to 25 knots will be common behind the front into
this afternoon before quickly diminish this evening. The clouds
will quickly clear from west to east late this afternoon leaving
clear skies tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning water vapor loop shows well defined and quickly
moving shortwave trough moving southeast across southern Rockies
toward West Texas. This wave was producing some moderate to heavy
snows across portions of southern Colorado around midnight CST but
has rather meager moisture to work on as it approaches more
southern latitudes later this morning, at least this far west
anyhow. Regional radars all indicate virga and most of the high
resolution models advertise some rain showers across much of the
forecast area after sunrise. This system has a decent punch and
would not be surprised at all if some locations squeeze out a
hundredth or two so have increased grid POPs some and pulled them
west onto most of the caprock for today. As wave moves over and
then east of region later this morning and afternoon, a cold front
will sweep quickly across the region. Winds looks quite stout
behind this front early this afternoon, in the solid 20-30 mph
windy category on the caprock and some of our higher locations
across the extreme SW Panhandle and W South Plains will probably
flirt with Wind Advisory criteria for an hour or two perhaps. Do
not feel like extent and duration of wind necessitates a Wind
Advisory. Guidance numbers came in warmer for highs today, but
didn't bite too hard on those numbers as solid downslope flow will
be tempered by cloud cover, virga and eventually some light rain
showers before the cold front puts an end to diurnal warming.

Winds will be on the decrease by sunset but mid level height rises
will already ensue by midnight Monday as shortwave ridging quickly
builds over the central US along with associated lee surface
trough development. This will quickly flip surface flow back
around to the south by Monday afternoon with highs back up into
the 60s region-wide and then probably well into the 70s by Tuesday
afternoon, although stuck closer to the superblend around 70
solution for now. By Tuesday night deterministic operational
models continue to advertise probably the strongest storm system
the SW CONUS has seen in quite some time. Unfortunately, both the
GFS/ECM take the track of this storm across the northern
Panhandle which will more than likely activate the West Texas wind
machine as lower and mid level pressure gradients tighten
significantly. For now have increased superblend winds by several
knots, but many more will likely be needed. Of course there are
questions about timing and cloud cover this far out and right now
it appears that the storm may be just slow enough to save the
morning hours. This is also the synoptic scenario where models
tend to be way too generous with surface dewpoints and really like
the ECM depiction of surface dews crashing into the teens
Wednesday afternoon, so mixed those into the superblend at that
time. Obviously, strong winds and lower RHs than progged by models
raise fire weather concerns for Wednesday and we will need to
keep a close eye on that potential between now and then.

Superblend continues to paint some low rain shower chances near
New Mexico border as system approaches on Wednesday and went
ahead and left those chances in the grids before dry slot arrives.
Perhaps a better chance of some light rain and/or light snow on
the caprock early Thursday as stout cold front and associated
short wave trough drop south Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. The front will knock at least a good 20-30 degrees off
of the highs from Wednesday to Thursday with a slow moderation in
high temperatures into next weekend. JW

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

13/13/23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
407 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

TXZ021>044-081015-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
407 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A strong storm system will approach the region on Wednesday
possibly resulting in very windy conditions as well as elevated
to critical fire weather.

JW