Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Lubbock, TX

629 
WWUS54 KLUB 172057
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
357 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

TXC219-279-172145-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-180517T2145Z/
Hockley TX-Lamb TX-
357 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HOCKLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN LAMB COUNTIES...

At 356 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Whitharral, or
8 miles north of Levelland, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Littlefield, Anton, Spade, Whitharral and Smyer. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3401 10210 3360 10208 3356 10225 3369 10240
      3396 10238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 227DEG 20KT 3370 10231 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

JORDAN

723 
WWUS54 KLUB 172104
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
404 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

TXC279-172113-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-180517T2145Z/
Lamb TX-
404 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAMB COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3381 10230 3382 10215 3382 10209 3360 10208
      3356 10225 3369 10240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 256DEG 22KT 3365 10218 

$$

TXC219-172145-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-180517T2145Z/
Hockley TX-
404 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HOCKLEY COUNTY...

At 403 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest of
Reese Center, or 11 miles northeast of Levelland, moving east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Anton, Whitharral and Smyer. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3381 10230 3382 10215 3382 10209 3360 10208
      3356 10225 3369 10240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 256DEG 22KT 3365 10218 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

JORDAN

115 
WWUS54 KLUB 172123
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
423 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

TXC219-172133-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-180517T2145Z/
Hockley TX-
423 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN HOCKLEY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.  However gusty winds are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3381 10230 3382 10215 3382 10209 3360 10208
      3356 10225 3369 10240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 230DEG 21KT 3373 10207 

$$

JORDAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
332 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Initial convective development is occurring along the state line
within a zone of weak convergence along the surface
trough/dryline. The latest indications are that this activity will
progress pretty much closely previous projections, gradually growing
upscale with greater coverage as it progresses east. MLCAPE
values around 1500 to 2500 and deep-layer shear of 40 kts or so
are more than sufficient for sustained updrafts and a severe
wind/threat. A couple supercells are also possible as well with
the threat of very large hail.

The upper trough out west will move into the southern and central
Rockies Friday, with strengthening and veering mid-level taking
the dryline farther east during the day. The dryline is expected
to be located near the edge of the Caprock by peak heating and
scattered t-storm development will be possible in the Rolling
Plains, with more severe weather potential.

The trough swings northeast into the central plains Saturday while
the next trough digs quickly into the Great Basin. A cold front
will move south behind the first wave with a pretty good push to
it. There are still some timing differences between the guidance
with the front, and t-storm chances across the area will depend
highly on the front's location by mid-afternoon. A shortwave will
be approaching West Texas late Saturday and could keep storm chances
going on through the night depending on how far south the front
goes.

By Sunday, the front should be well to our south, and we expect a
cool day and likely pretty stable, with low thunder chances.
However, in the face of strengthening southwest flow aloft as the
upper low stalls and deepens to the southwest, the front should
start to retreat pretty quickly back to the north and we could
see shower and t-storm activity pick up Sunday night in the
developing isentropic upglide regime. Thunderstorm chances should
continue Monday and Tuesday with the slow-moving upper low to the
west, and plentiful low-level moisture residing across the
region. Through this whole period, some pockets of heavy rainfall
are possible, as we could see several rounds of thunderstorm
activity track across similar areas.

The pattern may become less conducive for t-storm activity by
midweek as the upper low weakens with substantial energy racing
northward while broad troughiness lingers off the coast of
California. This could result in a building ridge over the
southern Rockies and West Texas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry lightning is possible this afternoon across the western South
Plains where isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop.

Fire weather concerns are expected on Friday to the west of the
dryline, which may be found near the edge of the Caprock by
afternoon. RH values across the western areas will fall to around
5 to 10 percent with wind speeds in the 15 to 25 mph range in the
afternoon. Recent rainfall in the southwest Texas Panhandle and
the possibility of rain this afternoon and evening create some
uncertainty regarding the extent of the threat.

Fire weather concerns are also possible Saturday afternoon across
western and southern portions of the South Plains in dry southwesterly
flow to the south of a cold front inbound from the north.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

33

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1135 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

TXZ021>044-180445-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1135 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
across the western South Plains, before growing into a larger
complex of storms as they spread eastward through the early
evening. In addition to heavy rain and some flooding at times,
very large hail to baseball size and downburst winds to 75 mph
could occur. Locally thick blowing dust may accompany some storms
as well, especially on the Caprock.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Elevated to critical wildfire weather is possible on Friday
afternoon across the western South Plains. A few severe
thunderstorms may develop on Friday and Saturday east of the
Caprock Escarpment, before this threat expands over much of the
region by Saturday night through Sunday. This unsettled weather
pattern will continue through much of next week with daily chances
for severe thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon.