Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
330 PM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The anticipated multi-day rain event is ongoing with another
round of excessive rainfall expected across our CWA beginning
later this evening and extending through the overnight hours. WPC
anticipates the southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains and Rolling
Plains may receive up to 1.5 inches by Tuesday morning. Areas
where increased instability and entrainment of convection occur
may see another inch or more of rainfall locally which could
enhance flooding issues, especially those areas that have already
been dealing with heavy rain and flooding last 48 hours. There was
some potential of severe weather this afternoon, primarily over
the Rolling Plains given bulk shear values between 40-60kts but
cloud cover has stunted surface heating for the most part. We've
seen some weakly rotating storms over the Rolling Plains this
afternoon but as of right now the severe threat seems limited.

The dynamic upper level trough has bottomed out over northern Old
Mexico this afternoon and will become more progressive and begin
to lift and shift northeast over the next 24hrs. After the heavy
rain overnight and lingering showers tomorrow afternoon we'll be
under the influence of the dry slot as the trough lifts into the
Central Plains and Great Lakes region.

Plenty of uncertainty remains beyond the two day drying period
Wednesday and Thursday. The remnants of hurricane Sergio will move
onshore from the SE Pacific into New Mexico and West Texas on
Friday. Depending on how Sergio's remnants phase and interact with
the northern jet and another Pacific low off the coast of
California going into the weekend will dictate the significance
of the next round of prolonged rainfall for the end of the week
going into next weekend. As of right now the WPC has a swath of
around one inch on the Caprock with the most rainfall anticipated
in the northern Rolling Plains for the end of the week.

The cloud cover and rainfall will help keep temperatures below
normal through the forecast period with an even stronger push of
cold air associated with the next system on Saturday behind a cold
front resulting in temperatures struggling to reach 60 degrees on
Sunday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ023>026-029>032-
034>044.

&&

55

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1140 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

TXZ021>044-090445-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1140 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe storms may develop this afternoon into early
evening especially for areas east of a line from Tulia to
Brownfield. This activity could bring large hail to the size of
golf balls and damaging winds gusts to 60 mph. A few tornadoes
will also be possible.

Showers and thunderstorms will bring a threat for heavy rain and
flooding, especially this evening and overnight. A Flood Watch is
in effect for all areas excluding the southwest Panhandle and
northwest South Plains until early Tuesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Periods of heavy rainfall with a risk for flooding will continue
into Tuesday morning.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
123 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     FLOOD            LUBBOCK                 33.58N 101.88W
10/08/2018                   LUBBOCK            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FLOODING ALONG 98TH STREET AT INDIANA AND QUAKER;
            OUTSIDE LANES FROM QUAKER TO FRANKFORD FLOODED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1800248

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
126 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     FLOOD            LUBBOCK                 33.58N 101.88W
10/08/2018                   LUBBOCK            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FLOODING AT 82ND AND UNIVERSITY AVE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1800249

JGD