Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Lubbock, TX

555 
WWUS54 KLUB 172004
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
304 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

TXC101-172030-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-180817T2030Z/
Cottle TX-
304 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN COTTLE COUNTY...

At 304 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Paducah, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Paducah and Chalk. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3384 10015 3383 10019 3401 10052 3418 10052
      3407 10008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 299DEG 9KT 3401 10025 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JGD

118 
WWUS54 KLUB 172015
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
315 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

TXC101-172025-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-180817T2030Z/
Cottle TX-
315 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN COTTLE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3384 10015 3383 10019 3401 10052 3418 10052
      3407 10008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 299DEG 9KT 3400 10022 

$$

PAZOS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
130 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Made a small adjustment to temperatures on the Rolling Plains.
Bumped highs up by two to three degrees as heating is occurring
faster due to a slower turn of winds to the south and southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/

AVIATION...
Thunderstorms were developing in the south-central TX Panhandle at
TAF issuance. This activity is expected to spread and eventually
impact KCDS this afternoon. As for KPVW and KLBB, the chance for
thunderstorms does exist late this afternoon and evening, but
confidence in timing or eventual development was too low for TAF
mention. Expect amendments this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure centered just west of the South Plains
will retreat slowly westward as an upper level short wave trough
crests the ridge over the Great Basin then dives southeastward
down the Central Plains toward the end of the weekend. This will
push a cold front southward through the southern High Plains.
Frontal timing will be key to precipitation chances along its
southward progression. GFS and ECMWF timing would favor some
precip mainly across the southern zones Sunday, although the
faster timing of the WRF-NAM has a good chance of being closer to
what verifies. Post-frontal air mass will likely not be able to
support thunderstorms until Tuesday night when high terrain
convection will have a chance to propagate southeastward into the
forecast area on northwest flow downstream from eastward-building
upper ridge.

Before the front the pattern will continue to favor afternoon
isolated thunderstorm development mainly across the northern half
of the forecast area with the potential for high terrain storms to
move into the forecast area during the overnight hours.

Temperatures through the forecast period will be near MOS values,
a bit above normal before the front, a bit below in the post-
frontal air mass before another uptick midweek as the ridge builds
back over the region.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

74

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
351 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

TXZ021>044-172100-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
351 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight across the extreme southern
Panhandle could produce wind gusts to 70 mph and flooding in some
locales.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Chances for afternoon and overnight thunderstorms will continue
Saturday and Sunday, initially favoring the the southern Texas
Panhandle, before expanding south on Sunday along a cold front.
Isolated severe wind gusts and localized flooding may accompany
some of these storms.