Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
653 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period. Showers
and thunderstorms will remain in the vicinity of KCDS through 02Z
with convective activity expected to diminish quickly after
sunset. Low ceilings and restricted visibility are possible early
Thursday morning but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF
at this point.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Some changes are noted from yesterday's runs.  High pressure is
expected to remain poised across the southwestern CONUS over the
next week. Shortwave disturbances will periodically traverse the
northern periphery of the high into the northern plains sending
frontal surges into the region every few days.

Through Sunday, data indicate that the pattern of afternoon,
evening, and overnight thunderstorms will continue with the best
chances remaining across our northern zones.  With this activity,
there will be a potential for localized strong-to-severe, pulse-
type storms given a deficit of shear and modest instability.
Prospects for a cold front continue for Sunday night. However much
uncertainty exists for how far south the boundary will make it.
The GFS is most assertive with the NAM/ECM in better agreement.
Needless to say, these boundaries are difficult to pinpoint this
time of year. By Tuesday, high pressure may drift a bit closer and
help drive temperatures back up. Have adjusted the latter extended
temps upward over the blends in anticipation of the warm-up.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

55/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
345 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

TXZ021>044-152045-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
345 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms could produce brief wind gusts to 65 mph this
evening across the far southwest Texas Panhandle.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue through the
weekend, initially favoring the the southern Texas Panhandle,
before expanding south this weekend ahead of a cold front.
Isolated severe wind gusts and heavy downpours may accompany
some of these storms.