Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
152 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Big story today will be the continued heat and possibility for
high based thunderstorms. The upper level high currently parked over
Mexico will continue to help high temperatures rise above the triple
digit mark for the entire area today. Across much of the southern
South Plains and Rolling Plains temperatures will once again reach
heat advisory criteria  Have gone ahead and expanded the heat
advisory further west given the expected high temps of 105F this
afternoon. SW winds over the South Plains and S over the Rolling
Plains will help the dryline sharpen just along I27 this afternoon.
MUCAPE values of 1500 J/kg to 2000 J/kg combined with strong daytime
heating, PWs of near an inch and bulk shear values between 30-40 kts
will help isolated thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon. The
lack of low level moisture will keep all storms that do develop high
based. That, plus DCAPE values of near 2000 J/kg will mean the main
threat with these storms will be strong winds. Although, some storms
could become more organized, given the bulk shear values, these type
of storms will be isolated and could produce hail. West of the
convection elevated fire weather conditions will be an issue. An RFD
is in effect for the South Plains this afternoon into the evening.

Tomorrow and Sunday, a front and "cooler" airmass will bring a quick
relief from the area-wide triple digit heat. During the day
tomorrow, winds will shift to the north and increase behind the
front. This airmass will be dry in nature and keep any chance of
POPs out of the area Saturday. Sunday, will be the "coolest" day of
the week ahead as the cooler continental air mass stays in place
over the area. This will help high temps settle back closer to
normal (upper 80s to low 90s). Sunday night into Monday, low and mid
level moisture will be on the increase ahead of an upper level
shortwave with a stalled front just SE of the area. Energy from the
shortwave and overrunning from the stalled front combined with the
moisture may allow for precipitation development. Amounts continue
to look minimal with much of the precip falling overnight.

Monday through Friday, the upper high begins to build back over
Mexico as S-SW flow returns. This will result in another round of
very hot and dry days for the FA. Triple digit highs will be common
area wide, with highs of 106F possible in some locations by mid
week. Given the current trend of this upper level ridge have
increased temps over the Blend and decreased POPs for next week.

Fire Weather...
Hot and dry weather continues today with the chance for high based
thunderstorms. Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds will
develop this afternoon and create elevated fire weather across
the southwest Texas Panhandle and western South Plains, where the
driest air will be. In addition, isolated late day storms may
develop, bringing the risk of lightning, gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ034>036-039>044.

&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1148 AM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

TXZ021>044-020500-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1148 AM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Near record to record temperatures will continue with high
temperatures reaching 105 degrees or higher across a large
portion of the South Plains and Rolling Plains. A heat advisory
is in effect from 1 pm through 8 pm for the southern and central
South Plains and the far southern Rolling Plains.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early
evening along and east of Interstate 27 into the Rolling Plains.
Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and hail up to golf ball size will
be possible.

Fire weather conditions will be elevated across the southwest
Texas Panhandle and western south Plains this afternoon. A fire
danger statement is in effect until 8 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

After a brief reprieve, dangerous heat may return to the region
next week as an upper ridge builds more squarely over the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be needed this afternoon through
early evening from the central South Plains through the Rolling
Plains.