Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Lubbock, TX

486 
WWUS84 KLUB 041019
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
419 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018

TXZ025-031-037-041130-
/O.CAN.KLUB.FW.W.0007.180304T1800Z-180305T0100Z/
Hall-Motley-Dickens-
419 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ROLLING PLAINS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...

The National Weather Service in Lubbock has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning. 

Wind speeds are expected to be modestly lighter than previously
forecast across Hall, Motley, and Dickens counties. However,
minimum humidity values will be very dry with readings lowering to 5
to 10 percent. The previously issued Red Flag Warning has been 
replaced with a rangeland fire danger statement. Outdoor burning 
remains discouraged.

$$

TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042-050100-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0007.180304T1800Z-180305T0100Z/
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-Cochran-
Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-
419 AM CST Sun Mar 4 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

* Wind...Southwesterly sustained at 15 to 25 mph, peaking mid to 
  late this afternoon. 

* Relative Humidity...Falling to 5 to 10 percent.

* Fuels...Critically dry.

* Impacts...Any fires that develop can spread rapidly. Outdoor 
  burning is discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or already occurring. These conditions can create
rapid wildfire growth.

&&

$$

700 
WWUS84 KLUB 042024
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
224 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018

TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042-050100-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180305T0100Z/
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-Cochran-
Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-
224 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND MOST OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

* Wind...Southwesterly sustained at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35
  mph.
 
* Relative Humidity...Falling to 3 to 8 percent.

* Fuels...Critically dry.

* Impacts...Any fires that develop can spread rapidly. Outdoor 
  burning is discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or already occurring. These conditions can create
rapid wildfire growth.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1125 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through evening. Stratus likely to move
northward into the South Plains region, moreso off the Caprock
affecting KCDS after 06Z. The possibility is a bit less certain at
KPVW and KLBB but have continued the MVFR mention in all three
TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Southwesterly flow aloft has returned to West Texas as an upper level
ridge slowly slides eastward across the central part of the country.
 To our NW, the next weather-maker is coming ashore the Pacific
Northwest.  This system will become multi-lobed today with the
southern evolving into a negatively tilted orientation as it
approaches on Sunday.  Overall, the core of this system continues to
trend a bit further northward with nearly zonal mid-level flow
during the day on Sunday and Monday.  As the low ejects into IA/MN,
we'll see winds continue to veer northwesterly on Tuesday as a weak
disturbance in cyclonic curvature overspreads the area.  This NW
flow aloft will continue until next weekend with ridging builds into
the inter-mountain west.

Low level moisture will be on the increase today as pressure falls to
our west help advect Gulf moisture into the region.  As a matter of
fact, nearly the entire CWFA should see dewpoints in the 50s by mid-
day.  A number of the solutions support the idea of some clouds
forming across the Rolling Plains and even expanding across the South
Plains by around sunrise.  Observational satellite data isn't
terribly supportive of the overall trend with anemic moisture being
depicted on the low level WV channel.  The dryline should remain out
near the TX/NM state line this afternoon--sloshing about in true SW
flow style.  On Sunday morning, continued moist advection may drive
dewpoints closer to 60 degrees and this deeper moisture looks to
continue to bring with it the threat of some drizzle or light rain
showers across the Rolling Plains during the morning hours.  After
sunrise, the dryline will be on the move and rapidly scour moisture
west of I27 by mid-day and progress to near our eastern row of
counties by 00z/MON.  This area west of the dryline continues to be
the focus of fire weather concerns though, given the track of the
low to our north, the winds look to be less intense in this
morning's data.  Still, will maintain the Fire Weather Watch as we
may still have sufficient elevated winds to meet those criteria.
Certainly, Sunday's fire weather is less of a slam dunk than
indicated last night for many of our zones. On Monday morning,
the dryline looks to remain in our east though the axis appears to
become more NE/SW ahead of a Pacific front. As the Pacific front
intrudes, the winds may pick up once again and trigger at least
elevated fire weather concerns as the lower levels will be bone
dry (as in aged cow- skull, not freshly grilled steak) with breezy
conditions. The cold front looks now to be delayed into Monday
night with a secondary surge Tuesday night. Tonight's data shows a
quicker onset of return flow (now on Thursday) with mildly breezy
southerly flow into next weekend.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>042.

&&

07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
336 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018

TXZ021>044-040945-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
336 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Warm, dry and gusty southwesterly winds are expected to create
critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon. A fire weather
watch is in effect west of a line from Memphis to Post. A wind
advisory may also be required for portions of West Texas on
Sunday. Dry conditions will persist into early next week and
occasional breezy winds may create elevated fire weather during
the afternoon hours.