Red Flag Warning 28, NWS Lubbock, TX

954 
WWUS84 KLUB 181931 AAA
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
231 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040-190200-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180519T0200Z/
Parmer-Castro-Bailey-Lamb-Cochran-Hockley-Yoakum-Terry-
231 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH 
PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE...

* Wind...Becoming southwest 15 to 25 mph.

* Humidity...5 to 10 percent.

* Fuels...Dry to extremely dry.

* Impacts...Outdoor burning is discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are imminent or already occurring. These conditions can create
rapid wildfire growth.

&&

$$

409 
WWUS84 KLUB 190206
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
906 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040-190315-
/O.EXP.KLUB.FW.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180519T0200Z/
Parmer-Castro-Bailey-Lamb-Cochran-Hockley-Yoakum-Terry-
906 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE...

Winds will continue to decrease this evening. Relative humidity 
levels will only slowly improve before the dryline retreats and
bring more solid improvements late tonight.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
341 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge axis continues moving east this morning, along with
final light showers out of the Rolling Plains. Low level flow
firmly from the east-southeast with the dry-line retreated west
all the way to the Pecos valley. Upper flow was backing
noticeably, with next upper low edging out of northern Nevada to
cross the Salt Lake later this morning and the central Rockies
this afternoon and early evening. Height falls will occur into our
area this afternoon and lower level winds will veer through our
western two rows of counties or so this afternoon tightening the
dryline somewhere near the US 87/I-25 corridor. Solutions have
been fairly consistent overnight with isolated to scattered
convection initiating just east of the dryline this afternoon then
pulling through the eastern South Plains into the Rolling Plains
by early evening. Shear and CAPE values both adequate again today
through our eastern counties for consideration of strong or
severe storms, which will be mentioned again in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook. In the dry air, it will likely again be hotter
than most guidance, and a little breezier. See the discussion
below regarding the Red Flag Warning in our western counties.

Flow Saturday expected to remain a bit more veered as upper level
low pressure steers east from the central high plains. Held onto
minimal thunder mention only in the Rolling Plains. Should again
be dry, breezy, and very warm most areas on the Caprock Saturday.
Weakness aloft will remain over the southwest U.S. and may allow a
weak disturbance to lift through the southern Rockies Saturday
night - solutions not clear on this - though lower levels will
back and should allow better moisture and instability to retreat
into the area ahead of a cold front expected to advance southward
into our area by daybreak Sunday. The relatively high chance of
rain in the blended solutions is a bit questionable with
uncertain upper lift, but we held onto chance category favoring
our southeast areas in particular. Also lingering uncertainty how
far south this front will settle with WRF/NAM and GFS fairly
similar holding the front up in our area, while the ECMWF
continues the front southward with a stronger push. ECMWF would
likely lead to better rain chances Sunday to our south and west,
while if the front does hang up across us, high chance or likely
chances of rain Sunday would be favored much as in the GFS and
WRF/NAM outputs. We continue to follow the middle road until
clarity improves.

The next upper low moving into the southwest late Sunday and
Monday will itself be forced northeast and then north Tuesday and
Wednesday, with little advancement towards our area expected as
upper heights should build from northern Mexico into central and
north Texas maintaining southwest flow aloft at least the first
half of the next week. We may have a weak disturbance cross the
area Monday, then lift appears will brush our area Tuesday from
the wobbling upper low activity in the southwest. This will
maintain solid chances for thunder our area through mid-week.
Then, as upper heights build back to the west Thursday and Friday,
chances should dwindle or be limited mainly to our western areas.
With high uncertainty in lifting mechanisms, this precludes
having high confidence in the severe threat for any one day Sunday
through Wednesday, though time of year suggests we should retain
at least generic mention of severe possibilities within the
Hazardous Weather Outlook. RMcQueen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy condition with temperatures well into the 90s are
expected across the western South Plains and parts of the
southwestern Texas Panhandle by mid afternoon and continuing to
mid evening. Wind speeds appear will be a bit on the low side and
may not fully equate to Red Flag conditions - but given the
continued dryness and higher ERC levels this area, it justifies
issuing a Red Flag Warning. May add on a Fire Danger Statement
just to the east but probably not for the eastern South Plains and
definitely not the Rolling Plains where moisture expected to
remain. Dry, breezy, and very warm conditions Saturday may lead
again to elevated fire danger at least western South Plains and
southwest Panhandle. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ021-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

04/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
403 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

TXZ021>044-191000-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
403 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Elevated to critical wildfire weather is expected this afternoon
and early evening across the western South Plains, where a Red
Flag Warning is in effect. A few severe thunderstorms may develop
this afternoon and evening mainly over the Rolling Plains. Hail
the size of quarters and wind gusts to 60 mph are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A few strong thunderstorms are also possible Saturday night and
Sunday. Strong or severe thunderstorms also may develop Monday
through Wednesday as an unsettled pattern holds over our region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.