Special Weather Statement, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
331 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Primary concern for tonight and Tuesday will be on convective
trends. Isolated to scattered diurnal activity should continue
into early this evening, primarily across portions of southeast
and east-central Missouri as well as southwest Illinois. Some CAMs
are hinting at additional development along a remnant outflow
boundary across northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois by
early evening. If this convection were to develop, it would slide
southeastward affecting east-central Missouri and south-central
Illinois by late this evening. A few storms through early tonight
may be strong to severe, with strong gusty winds the primary
threat. There currently is very steep low-level lapse rates and
high downdraft CAPE values as evidenced by latest SPC
mesoanalysis. In addition, fairly benign cores earlier this
afternoon have already produced weak microburst signatures with
wind gusts in the 25-35 miles per hour range.

Actual synoptic cold front will be nearing far northern sections of
the forecast area late tonight and should provide the focus for
additional thunderstorm development as low-level jet strengthens.
However, low- level forcing for ascent does not appear too
strong/focused so unsure of how widespread activity will be
overnight tonight. Low-level jet is forecast to veer after
midnight tonight, so expecting any convection that does form to
slide at least slowly southward through dawn.

Even more uncertainty with evolution of convection during the day on
Tuesday, and much will depend on coverage/location of storms
during the morning hours. Cold front will continue a very slow
push to the south on Tuesday, so appears chances of storms will
continue throughout the day. A few storms may be strong to severe
across the area, especially within any areas that are able to
destabilize sufficiently. With expectation that morning storms
will be just north of I-70 corridor, best guess on where highest
instability will reside during the afternoon hours would be parts
of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Temperatures on Tuesday should be heavily modulated by
clouds/precipitation. Because of this increase in overall cloud
cover and the possibility of more widespread shower/thunderstorm
activity, temperatures should be quite a bit cooler than that
experienced today. Forecast highs range from the mid to upper 80s
across most of the forecast area, which is more in line with normals
for the first week of August.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Cold front is expected to fully clear the CWA early on Wednesday.
Slightly drier and cooler air will slowly filter into the region
behind this boundary. Highest chances for storms will reside across
portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois Tuesday night
into early Wednesday. Much of the region should then be dry
through Thursday night.

A secondary cold front is expected to move through the bi-state
region on Friday beneath northwest flow aloft. This feature will
bring a chance of thunderstorms to parts of the area, mainly for
Friday afternoon and evening. This front, like its predecessor, also
looks to move very slowly equatorward through early this weekend.
Therefore have additional chances for storms on Saturday mostly
across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Cutoff low pressure is forecast to develop at mid/upper levels this
weekend across the Great Lakes. A shortwave trough is expected to
rotate cyclonically around this cyclone into western Illinois on
Sunday, bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures are forecast to be near normal for the duration of
the extended forecast. Warmest days should be on Thursday and
Friday ahead of the secondary cold front with highs in the upper
80s to low 90s. Temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 80s
are then favored for this weekend into next Monday.

Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Thunderstorm chances will be the primary concern over the next 24
hours. Expecting scattered storms to form along a SW-NE boundary
late this afternoon into this evening. KUIN and metro terminals
have best chance at seeing this activity so have a VCTS group. May
be a break/lull in activity before additional storms develop along
slowly moving cold front. This activity most likely will affect
KUIN at first and try and move southward toward KCOU and the metro
terminals late tonight into the day on Tuesday. Conditions outside
of thunderstorm activity should remain VFR, but stronger storms
could reduce visibilities as well as producing some strong wind
gusts.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Scattered storms appear possible late this afternoon into early
this evening associated with an old outflow boundary. Probably
will be a break/lull in convective activity late this evening
before additional storms develop to the north of the terminal and
attempt to slide southward. Continued chances of storms will exist
along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front on Tuesday. Outside of
thunderstorm activity, conditions are expected to be VFR. Any
stronger storm that does directly impact the terminal would
however have the capability of reducing visibilities and producing
strong wind gusts.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
338 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-071200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
338 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely overnight tonight, mainly for portions of
northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois. A few of these
storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds the primary
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers and thunderstorms are likely for much of the area on
Tuesday. A few of the storms could be strong to severe with
damaging winds and large hail the primary threats.

The chance of thunderstorms continues for parts of the area
Tuesday night through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

Gosselin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
441 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

ILZ058-099-062215-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-
441 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GREENE AND JERSEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 441 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Old Kane, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jerseyville, Brighton, Kemper, Old Kane, Kane, Fieldon, Rockbridge,
Otterville, Fidelity, Delhi and McClusky.

LAT...LON 3904 9015 3903 9054 3921 9058 3929 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 262DEG 17KT 3913 9047

Tilly