Special Weather Statement, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
359 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Another uncapped afternoon with exceptional CAPE values above
3000 J/kg, ample surface moisture and little to no shear will
continue to result in scattered thunderstorm development.

Storms will likely produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning
with the possibility of hail and gusty winds. However, the threat
of severe weather is low being localized in nature. Storms will
remain nearly stationary with very slow southward movement.
Expect what develops to last a couple hours or so before raining
themselves out. Additional storms will likely develop along
outflow from prior storms making for a rather chaotic behavior at
least through 7pm/8pm.

Memorial Day will be another hot one as an upper ridge builds
slightly further north and east. Most of the area will escape any
thunderstorm activity. The only exception will be extreme
southern portions of the CWA, but it seems greatest chances should
remain over far southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois.
Temperatures will climb well into the 90s, once again challenging
record highs.

There is some question as to whether we stay dry late Monday
night. As Alberto tracks northward, guidance has hinted at a
shortwave feature rotating westward around the northern edge of
this system. This could bring chances precip to the southern third
of the forecast area late Monday night into early Tuesday.

Maples

.LONG TERM...  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Active weather is expected through much of the period. The biggest
headline will relate to remnants of Alberto, as it travels from
the gulf to the Great Lakes from mid to late week.

Medium to long range guidance is coming into better agreement in
tracking Alberto northward and impacting the bi-state region
Tuesday and Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm potential will
gradually increase through the day Tuesday from south to north, as
high clouds stream in and the outer edge of the system reaches
into the Midwest.

Wednesday stands the best potential for showers and thunderstorms
as low pressure tracks near the Illinois/Indian border. The
question then will be coverage. PWATs climb to around 2 inches
with plenty of convergence on the western periphery of the system.
This may be something to watch with a stark west-to-east gradient
in rainfall. Central Missouri could very well be safe from
rainfall with those along and east of the Mississippi River
running the greatest risk at heavy rain.

Remnants from Alberto begin to pull north of the area early
Thursday. Upper ridging attempts to build into the central Plains
with several weak disturbances rotating around the northern edge
of the ridge. This will keep thunderstorm chances going through
late in the week. The tail end of the period remains questionable
with guidance taking the original upper low from Alberto and merging
with an incoming trough from the west. This whole mess eventually
sinks back southeast and could keep chances from precip in the
forecast through Sunday.

Maples

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR conditions are expected to dominate most locations with a
slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Current satellite
image reflects diurnal cu field from Chicago through St. Louis and
points south and east. High pressure continues to build in from
the west, which should keep KCOU and KUIN rain-free.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR is more likely to hold on through the period, as high pressure
builds in from the west this afternoon. KSTL resides on the
borderline of diurnal cu to the south and drier air to the north.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be very difficult to
pinpoint with regard to timing and location. Better chances are
expected south and east. Carried VCTS through the afternoon until
the risk decreases beyond sunset.

Maples

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Memorial Day Weekend Temperature Records

                 Records Highs    Record High Mins

Sunday   5/27
    St. Louis      93 (2012)         76 (2012)
    Columbia       92 (2012)         70 (2006)
    Quincy         94 (1911)         73 (1914)

Monday   5/28
    St. Louis      94 (2012)         76 (2012)
    Columbia       91 (2012)         72 (2012)
    Quincy         94 (1914)         72 (2012)

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
416 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-281145-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
416 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening.
Some storms may produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning,
gusty winds and hail. Widespread severe weather is no expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

Maples

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
538 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

MOZ018-019-026-272330-
Knox MO-Lewis MO-Shelby MO-
538 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX...NORTHEASTERN
SHELBY AND SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 538 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
La Belle, moving south at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Belle, Lewistown, Ewing, Knox City, Plevna, Steffenville and
Newark.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in St Louis.

&&

LAT...LON 4022 9190 3997 9167 3994 9175 3995 9184
      3992 9184 3987 9199 3996 9210 4017 9212
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 337DEG 9KT 4012 9193

Gosselin

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