Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS St. Louis, MO

464 
WWUS53 KLSX 210145
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
845 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

MOC019-027-135-210154-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-180521T0145Z/
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Moniteau MO-
845 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL BOONE...NORTHWESTERN
CALLAWAY AND NORTHEASTERN MONITEAU COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM
CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds and heavy rain are still
possible with these thunderstorms.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
St Louis.

LAT...LON 3892 9250 3893 9250 3914 9211 3907 9211
      3906 9208 3877 9203 3872 9235 3874 9239
      3871 9241 3869 9252 3886 9254
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 244DEG 29KT 3907 9206 3888 9204 

$$

TES

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
659 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Still a lot of uncertainty on how to handle precip chances over the
next 24 hours. Main system to our southwest to begin lifting north
northeast through forecast area tonight. Will see additional rounds
of showers and storms develop and move through depending on how fast
the atmosphere recovers from this mornings storms. So exact timing
and placement of activity still hard to pin down, so just kept high
chance pops for the area. As for chances of severe storms, again
depends on recovery of atmosphere. As of 19z, CAPE values are back
above 1000 J/kg over southern half of Missouri, but lower and capped
further north.

By midday Monday, main cold front to exit forecast area with some
lingering activity diminishing by 00z Tuesday.

Lows tonight will be mild, in the low to mid 60s with highs on
Monday in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

By Monday night, system finally exits and will have dry conditions
through at least mid week as surface ridge builds in. Some
differences in timing, strength and placement with next several
systems among the extended models. So kept slight/low chance pops
from time to time through rest of extended period.

As for temperatures, to remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal through
the extended period.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Main concerns tonight into Monday will center around thunderstorms
approaching from the southwest. Outside the cluster of storms,
concerns are limited with just mid/high clouds streaming in well
ahead of the activity. Winds are generally light and/or variably.

Thunderstorms chances will increase after 00z, affecting KCOU
first, then spreading north and east overnight. Cigs will likely
drop to mvfr along the front with any vsby issues being confined
to those directly impacted by thunderstorms. Storm intensity will
likely wave through the late night hours, but cannot rule out a
few embedded storms.

The front finally pushes through from west to east Monday
afternoon. We may see a few afternoon storms pop along and east of
the Mississippi River until the front clear. Otherwise expect
improving conditions through the afternoon hour from west to east.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

We continue to watch thunderstorm development over southwest and
central Missouri. Ahead of the activity VFR conditions will
continue with scattered/broken mid to high clouds and variable
winds.

Storms approach KSTL around midnight. Ceilings will remain VFR a
majority of the time. MVFR cigs could impact the site should
thunderstorms survive this far east. Will account for lower cigs
in amendments should they be necessary later this evening.

Overall improvement is in the forecast Monday, as the front drive
east of the area. Some signals show a few showers lingering
through morning with the possibility of scattered afternoon
storms. These should primarily stay east of KSTL with clouds
breaking with a clearing trend through the afternoon.

Maples

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
330 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-211200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
330 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across the area
through this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday, then there are chances
of thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

Byrd

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
742 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TIPTON                  38.66N 92.78W
05/20/2018                   MONITEAU           MO   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS AND A COUPLE OF TREES
            BLOWN DOWN AROUND TOWN.

&&

MAB