Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS St. Louis, MO

894 
WWUS53 KLSX 141933
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
233 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018

ILC051-141945-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-180714T1945Z/
Fayette IL-
233 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY...

At 232 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Iola, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Farina and La Clede. 

This includes Interstate 57 in Illinois near exit 135.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
St Louis.

&&

LAT...LON 3882 8882 3886 8880 3891 8877 3892 8871
      3891 8869 3883 8870
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 275DEG 16KT 3886 8866 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Gosselin

086 
WWUS53 KLSX 141944
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
244 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018

ILC051-141954-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-180714T1945Z/
Fayette IL-
244 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3882 8882 3886 8880 3891 8877 3892 8871
      3891 8869 3883 8870
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 275DEG 16KT 3886 8860 

$$

Gosselin

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
106 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Expanded the Heat Advisory to include most of the forecast area,
except northeast MO and part of west central Illinois, for late this
morning until the early evening hours.  The highest afternoon heat
indices are expected across east central MO and southwest IL with
values topping out at 105-109 degrees.  Across central and southeast
MO heat indices this afternoon should reach 100-105 degrees.  There
will be isolated showers and storms this morning, but the better
coverage will occur this afternoon into the evening as the
atmosphere becomes very unstable ahead of a shortwave now over IA
which will move slowly southeastward through our area.  A few storms
may consolidate and create a strong cold pool leading to potentially
damaging winds late this afternoon into the early evening.  The
experimental HRRR model gradually shifts the better coverage of
showers/storms into southeast MO and southwest IL late tonight as
the shortwave shifts slowly southeastward along with a weak surface
trough or outflow boundary.

GKS

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature fairly weak flow aloft, with the region in generally zonal
to weak WNW flow aloft. This regime will transition to more of
northwest flow by the middle and end of next week as a trough
amplifies across the Northeast.

Sunday will begin with a weak cold front sagging into the region.
This front coupled with a weak PV anomaly sliding ESE will lead to
the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. It appears
the best co-location of the upper-level ascent over the surface
convergence will be over western IL, thus slightly higher pops were
focused there. Given the influence of the front and the expected
clouds/precip, temps should be slightly cooler than today with highs
expected in the upper 80s/low 90s. This should bring heat index
values down below 100 in most areas.

Thunderstorm coverage should decrease Sunday night into early Monday
with the loss of daytime heating. The front will continue its slow
progression to the south on Monday, which should focus pops more
along the I-70 corridor and areas south for Monday
afternoon/evening. Temperatures will be similar to Sunday, with
highs expected in the upper 80s/low 90s.

Tuesday will mark the arrival of a much more pleasant airmass. The
front will have moved south of the area, allowing dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s to filter in which should limit any thunderstorm
development. This airmass will remain in place through at least
Wednesday, providing a nice little break in the heat we've seen of
late.

While Thursday still looks fairly comfortable, the chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase as a warm front
attempts to lift closer to the region. This front will keep chances
for showers/storms in the forecast through Friday, although
temperatures don't look to be nearly as hot as they have been.

Deitsch

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and
early evening across the bi-state area. Greatest coverage during
this period is most likely over central Missouri so added a TEMPO
group in for KCOU. Will monitor convective trends and update as
necessary. May be a bit of a lull in activity late evening and
early overnight hours but additional storms are expected late
tonight into early Sunday morning. Stronger storms will be capable
of reduced visibilities and potentially some strong wind gusts.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Scattered storms late this afternoon into at least early this
evening. Maintained VCTS wording for now due to scattered nature
expected but will continue to monitor and ammend as necessary.
Probably will be a bit of a lull in storm activity late evening
into the early overnight period before additional storms affect
the terminal late tonight into early Sunday morning.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Boone MO-Callaway
     MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
     Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery
     MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint
     Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Bond IL-Calhoun IL-
     Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-
     Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
427 AM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-150930-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
427 AM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect for central and southeast Missouri as
well as southwest Illinois and a portion of west central Illinois
late this morning until early this evening where dangerously hot
and humid conditions are expected. See the Advisory product for
additional info.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected this
afternoon and this evening with damaging winds the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance of thunderstorms for portions of the area
Sunday through Monday night, then again from Wednesday night
through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and this evening.

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
959 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MURRY                   39.04N 92.17W
07/14/2018                   BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

&&

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1042 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDINA                   40.17N 92.18W
07/13/2018                   KNOX               MO   NEWSPAPER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

&&

PW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
119 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018

ILZ065-141900-
Fayette IL-
119 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY UNTIL 200
PM CDT...

At 119 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Vandalia, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vandalia, St. Elmo, Brownstown, Wrights Corner, Avena, Shafter and
St. James.

This includes Interstate 70 in Illinois between exits 61 and 76.

LAT...LON 3890 8915 3905 8920 3918 8885 3906 8880
      3892 8881
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 254DEG 11KT 3899 8910

Gosselin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
200 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018

ILZ065-070-141945-
Marion IL-Fayette IL-
200 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARION AND
SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 200 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
St. Elmo, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kinmundy, Farina, La Clede, St. Peter, Loogootee and St. James.

This includes Interstate 57 in Illinois near exit 135.

LAT...LON 3879 8897 3899 8887 3899 8881 3891 8881
      3892 8871 3891 8869 3874 8870
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 275DEG 16KT 3895 8882

Gosselin