Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS St. Louis, MO

136 
WWUS53 KLSX 142113
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
413 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

MOC007-142123-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-180614T2130Z/
Audrain MO-
413 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AUDRAIN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3897 9171 3908 9151 3899 9134 3880 9159
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 311DEG 13KT 3896 9153 

$$

MOC027-139-142130-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-180614T2130Z/
Montgomery MO-Callaway MO-
413 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND EAST CENTRAL CALLAWAY COUNTIES...

At 413 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Montgomery
City, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Montgomery City, New Florence, Buell, Mineola and Danville. 

This also includes  Graham Cave State Park.
 
This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri near exit 170.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 9171 3908 9151 3899 9134 3880 9159
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 311DEG 13KT 3896 9153 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Byrd

705 
WWUS53 KLSX 142127
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
427 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

MOC027-139-142137-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-180614T2130Z/
Montgomery MO-Callaway MO-
427 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND EAST
CENTRAL CALLAWAY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However small hail and heavy rain are still
possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3897 9171 3908 9151 3899 9134 3880 9159
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 315DEG 8KT 3894 9151 

$$

Byrd

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1253 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Scattered convection across southeastern IA ahead of a shortwave
over-topping the southern Plains upper level ridge will drop
southeastward into northeast MO and west central IL early this
morning.  This convection will likely dissipate later this morning,
but another round of convection can be expected across parts of
central into northeast MO this afternoon as the atmosphere
destabilizes ahead of a warm front which will be moving north-
northeastward through this area this afternoon and evening.  More
humid conditions will return this afternoon and tonight as surface
winds veer around to a southerly direction after passage of the warm
front.  Warmer low temperatures can be expected tonight due to the
southerly surface winds and higher surface dew points.  The chance
of showers/storms will continue across west central and southwest IL
late tonight as "ridge runner" shortwaves impact this area, while
the warm front continues to shift north-northeastward through this
region.

GKS

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

A surface warm front is expected to track thru our forecast area on
Friday, mainly during the morning, and have maintained low PoPs for
this.  Some of the more recent model runs have directed much of the
better pcpn chances to our east, where the affects of the warm front
will have more time and can see dropping these low PoPs on the next
forecast package issuance but held on to a token mentionable value
for now.

The big story is what is expected to be the first major outbreak of
high heat and humidity across portions of our region, which as
usual, will be most acute in the Saint Louis metro area.  An upper
level RIDGE will build in on Friday and maintain its dominant
position thru at least Sunday, and probably into Monday.  This will
keep any cold fronts locked up to our north with a steady south to
southwest surface flow during this period.  Daytime max temperatures
will be in the 90s, with the highest temperatures expected in the
typical heat island of the Saint Louis metro area and with the
hottest days on Saturday and Sunday where the upper RIDGE will be
most dominant.  Dewpoints in the lower 70s for much of the region
will yield max heat index values around 105F each day in the Saint
Louis metro area, tapering to around 100F for other areas.  Based on
this, have went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for the Saint Louis
metro area with possible expansion to other areas.

Monday also looks good for extreme heat at first glance but
additional moisture and an upper level disturbance from the south
could begin to influence the weather with respect to clouds and rain
and so there is a notable drop in confidence on this day, besides
being 96 hours out.

Models are in decent agreement on breaking down this upper RIDGE's
grip on our area heading into Tuesday and Wednesday with a surface
cold front dropping down and an increase in rain chances as a
result.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Main TAF concern will be a convective complex moving into UIN and
additional thunderstorm development possible elsewhere this
afternoon. Complex should move into UIN just after 19Z, with the
outflow winds just ahead of the storms possibly exceeding 30
knots. Elsewhere, additional thunderstorm development is possible
near COU, but scattered coverage precludes anything more than VCTS
for now. Uncertainty is higher in the St. Louis metro sites. It
is possible the outflow of the storms near UIN may develop
additional storms this afternoon near the St. Louis sites, but
confidence in this occurring is not high enough to include a
mention at this time. Outside of thunderstorms, expect increasing
diurnal cumulus and high cloudiness.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Keeping an eye on the convective complex near UIN. The outflow
from these thunderstorms could potentially develop additional
thunderstorms near STL later this afternoon. However, confidence
in this scenario is still fairly low, so will continue with a dry
TAF for now. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with diurnal cu this
afternoon and some passing high clouds this afternoon through
tonight. Winds through the period will be out of SSE around 5-10
knots.

Deitsch

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from noon Friday to 8 PM CDT Sunday for Saint
     Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO.

IL...Heat Advisory from noon Friday to 8 PM CDT Sunday for Madison IL-
     Saint Clair IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
433 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-151200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
433 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms. Widespread severe weather is
not anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A dangerous combination of heat and humidity is expected to begin
Friday afternoon for portions of the area and continue through at
least Sunday, and possibly into Monday. Peak heat index values
will range from 100 to 106 each afternoon and early evening. The
highest values will occur in the Saint Louis metro area, where a
Heat Advisory has been issued from Friday afternoon through early
Sunday evening. See the Heat Advisory product for additional
details.

The chance for thunderstorms will continue over parts of the area
on Friday, then resume again for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
246 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     HAIL             PERRY                   39.43N 91.67W
06/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       RALLS              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
250 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HAIL             PERRY                   39.43N 91.67W
06/14/2018  M1.00 INCH       RALLS              MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA MPING.

&&

CMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
321 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     HAIL             1 N PARIS               39.49N 92.00W
06/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
327 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     HAIL             LADDONIA                39.24N 91.64W
06/14/2018  E0.50 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   PUBLIC

&&

JPG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     HAIL             LADDONIA                39.24N 91.64W
06/14/2018  E0.88 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JPG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
338 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     HAIL             LADDONIA                39.25N 91.64W
06/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VIA NWS CHAT.

&&

CMK