River Flood Warning 90, NWS St. Louis, MO

036 
WGUS83 KLSX 071503
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1003 AM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
                       North Fabius River near Ewing
                       Middle Fabius River near Ewing

.This Flood Warning is a result of about 1.5 inches of rainfall the 
past 48 hours and about 1.25 inches forecast in the next 48 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-081502-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-180911T0000Z/
/EWNM7.1.ER.180907T1045Z.180908T1200Z.180910T0000Z.NO/
1003 AM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* until Monday evening.
* At  9:30 AM Friday the stage was 12.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 13.9 feet by tomorrow morning, 
  then fall below flood stage Sunday evening.
* Impact:  At 14.0 feet...Left bank begins to flood near Monticello.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     09/08  09/09  09/10  09/11  09/12

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   12.84      13.9   11.7   10.5    8.5    7.0


&&

LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154


$$

MOC111-081502-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0075.180907T2300Z-180910T1800Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.180907T2300Z.180909T0000Z.180909T1800Z.NO/
1003 AM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing
* from this evening to Monday afternoon.
* At  9:30 AM Friday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and
  to crest near 13.9 feet by tomorrow evening. The river is forecast 
  to fall below flood stage by Sunday early afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     09/08  09/09  09/10  09/11  09/12

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0   10.25      12.6   13.1    9.2    7.2    5.1

&&

LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162

$$

781 
WGUS43 KLSX 071757
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1257 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

...Observed and Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate 
Severity for the following rivers in Missouri...

                         ...North Fabius River near Ewing

.This Flood Warning is a result of 0.3 inches of rainfall the past
24 hours and 1.25 inches forecast in the next 48 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-081756-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-180910T1108Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.180907T1045Z.180908T0600Z.180909T1108Z.NO/
1257 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

...Observed and Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...

The Flood Warning continues for the North Fabius River near Ewing.
* At 12:30 PM Friday the stage was 14.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue.
* The river is forecast to crest near 16.8 feet by after midnight 
  tonight. The river is forecast to fall below flood stage Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact:  At 16.0 feet...Lewis County Road 532 (or 230th Street) will
  be flooded at this height.
* Impact:  At 15.0 feet...State Highway E west of Williamstown begins 
  to flood.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     09/08  09/09  09/10  09/11  09/12

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   14.93      16.3   10.9    9.8    8.0    6.9

&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

651 
WGUS83 KLSX 081048
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
548 AM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Middle Fabius River near Ewing

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  North Fabius River near Ewing


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC111-091048-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-180911T0800Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.180907T1045Z.180907T2300Z.180910T0800Z.NO/
548 AM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing
* until late Monday night.
* At  5:30 AM Saturday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  Monday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     09/09  09/10  09/11  09/12  09/13

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   11.64      11.5   11.2   10.6    8.3    7.0


&&


LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154




$$

MOC111-081118-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-180910T1800Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180907T2300Z.180908T0125Z.NO/
548 AM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Middle Fabius River near Ewing.
* At  5:30 AM Saturday the stage was 11.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at  8:25 PM Friday.
* The river will continue falling to 10.3 feet by tomorrow morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     09/09  09/10  09/11  09/12  09/13

Middle Fabius River
  Ewing           12.0   11.37      11.4   10.3    7.9    6.3    4.8


&&


LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162




$$

432 
WGUS83 KLSX 081439
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
939 AM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Missouri...
 
              ...North Fabius River near Ewing

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
              ...Cuivre River at Old Monroe
              ...South Fabius River near Taylor

.This Flood Warning is a result of up to 3 inches of rainfall in the 
Taylor basin the past 48 hours and more than an inch in the Old 
Monroe basin forecast in the next 24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-091438-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0086.180909T1800Z-180914T1800Z/
/OMNM7.1.ER.180909T1800Z.180910T1200Z.180913T0600Z.NO/
939 AM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River at Old Monroe
* from Sunday afternoon to Friday afternoon.
* At  8:30 AM Saturday the stage was 21.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow early 
  afternoon and to crest near 24.8 feet by Monday morning. The river 
  is forecast to fall below flood stage by early Thursday morning.
* Impact:  At 24.5 feet...Extensive left bank agricultural flooding 
  develops upstream of the gage.  A utility road is flooded along the
  Old Monroe levee along the left bank upstream of the gage.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     09/09  09/10  09/11  09/12  09/13

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0   21.10      23.5   24.8   24.5   24.0   23.9

&&

LAT...LON 3892 9081 3894 9070 3892 9070 3890 9080


$$

MOC127-091438-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-180909T1800Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.180907T2325Z.180908T0400Z.180908T1800Z.NO/
939 AM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fabius River near Taylor
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At  8:30 AM Saturday the stage was 9.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  this afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     09/09  09/10  09/11  09/12  09/13

South Fabius River
  Taylor           9.5    9.72       6.3    3.9    2.7    2.3    2.2

&&

LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172
      3989 9176                       


$$

MOC111-081509-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-180911T0800Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.180907T1045Z.180907T2300Z.180908T1225Z.NO/
939 AM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the North Fabius River near Ewing.
* At  8:30 AM Saturday the stage was 10.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at  7:25 AM Saturday.
* The river will continue falling to 8.7 feet by tomorrow morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     09/09  09/10  09/11  09/12  09/13

North Fabius River
  Ewing           11.0   10.67       8.7    8.0    6.9    6.0    5.4

&&

LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
407 AM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

The threat for additional heavy rain and flooding continues to be
the main concern. Some locations will add to what has already been
received in the last couple of days.

IR satellite and WV imagery make it clearly evident where the divide
is draped through the region. Extensive cloud cover and moisture can
be seen stretching from just south of the Great Lakes, through
central Illinois and into central and northern sections of Missouri.

It is along this boundary that a fairly narrow corridor of PWATs
exceed 2 inches through the morning and moisture convergence
increases. Though showers have yet to become widespread, the general
theme with the CAMs is to continue to increase activity through the
12z timeframe. Given the impressive PWATs, it is expected that we
will see efficient rainfall production, especially within embedded
pockets of heavier rain from west central Illinois into northeast
Missouri. Some of these locations have already received several
inches in the last couple of days, lowering flash flood thresholds.
This will be something to watch as we progress through the morning,
especially in the event heavier rainfall is nearly stationary.

Remnants of Gordon, currently centered over Arkansas, will continue
to make northward progress through the afternoon. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms will spread northward through the morning.
While rain cannot be ruled out south of the surface boundary through
the morning hours, it is not until afternoon that the boundary
begins to sinks south. Increased PWATs around the system are pulled
northward as the two features interact. It is likely additional
showers and more widespread rainfall fills in over the St. Louis
area through the afternoon and evening. Therefore, have not deviated
from categorical PoP late this afternoon into the evening and
overnight hours. The focus for heavy rain begins to shift further
south over east-central and southeast Missouri and into southwest
Illinois Friday evening and Friday night.

Extensive cloud cover, widespread rainfall and southward push of the
boundary, temperatures will stay on the cooler side. High will only
be around 70 over northeast Missouri to near 80 degrees around STL.

Maples

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

Main concerns Saturday and Saturday night is continued heavy
rainfall with the remnants of Gordon.

The NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show the remnant surface low of Gordon moving
from southern Missouri at 12Z Saturday into southwestern Indiana by
12Z Sunday.  This will be at the same time a mid level trough slowly
deepens over the central CONUS which will enhance ascent ahead of it
over Missouri and Illinois.  Both the NAM/GFS is showing very
strong, persistent moisture convergence along and north of the 850mb
low path across east central Missouri into southwest and south
central Illinois Saturday into Saturday evening which will help
raise the QPF totals.  PWATS will be 2-2.25" which is 200% of normal
and warm cloud depths will be very deep leading to very efficient
rain producing showers and thunderstorms.  Flash flooding will be
likely, especially on any saturated surface.

The models show the upper trough axis moving across the area on
Sunday with subsidence setting in behind it.  This will bring an end
to the precipitation from west to east during the day.  Then a large
surface high will move across Missouri and Illinois on Monday and
Tuesday followed by a large upper ridge building over the central
CONUS later in the week.  This will keep the forecast mainly dry
after Sunday.

Temperatures will be below normal this weekend with the clouds and
the rain.  They will then climb back to September normals by midweek
as the surface high moves to the east and winds turn back out of
the south.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

Main changes to the prev forecast are to lower cigs at KCOU and
KUIN. Still believe that KUIN will remain IFR thru the period.
KCOU has already dropped to IFR and there is some uncertainty
regarding trends overnight. At this point, see no reason that cigs
will lift and have therefore kept at IFR thru the period. Some
minor changes to precip timing, but some refining may need to be
done as the event unfolds.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Main change is to remove IFR cigs
around sunrise. Guidance continues to suggest VFR or MVFR cigs
until Fri late afternoon or more likely evening. Some isod to sct
SHRA may impact terminals overnight, but these shud be brief.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday
     morning for Crawford MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
     Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

     Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-
     Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-
     Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday
     morning for Randolph IL.

     Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Adams IL-Bond IL-
     Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
     IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
402 AM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-080915-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
402 AM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms, and heavy rain is likely today
and tonight. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a chance for thunderstorms, and heavy rain is likely
through Sunday over parts of the area. A Flash Flood Watch is in
effect for the entire area through early Sunday morning due to
this expected heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to call in any flooding reports or rainfall
reports greater than one inch.

Britt