River Flood Warning 36, NWS St. Louis, MO

932 
WGUS83 KLSX 301129
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
629 AM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Bourbeuse River at Union


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC071-301159-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-180331T0600Z/
/UNNM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
629 AM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Bourbeuse River at Union.
* At  6:00 AM Friday the stage was 11.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* The river will crest below flood stage at 14.9 feet this morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/31  04/01  04/02  04/03  04/04

Bourbeuse River
  Union           15.0   11.22      11.6   11.3    7.5    5.2    4.4


&&


LAT...LON 3826 9123 3832 9133 3838 9137 3848 9094
      3842 9087                       



$$

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
644 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

It looks like the trof/weather system that has been affecting us for
a while will finally lift out of the area the next 12 hours. However
we have to get through the next 12 hours. If it were colder I would
say we have a nice winter storm with a good deformation zone
developing, but it is warm so all we have to worry about is rain.
That said, the HRRR and CONSHORT agree in holding some pops across
parts of east and southeast MO and southern IL through the evening.
It will likely end up being a narrow band, but will keep at least
chance pops going through 06z for much of the southern part of the
CWA. Drier air is filtering in from the north so improvement is on
the way for Friday. Patchy fog may be an issue overnight given the
wet ground, but will let the evening shift tackle that as it
develops. With cloud cover holding in for much of the are
overnight, have raised low temperatures to the warmer MAV levels.
Guidance for Friday looks good.

This will be my last forecast shift for the NWS as I am retiring as
of March 31. It has been a pleasure working with and serving
everyone across the 46 county area of the NWS St. Louis. Take Care.

Jim Kramper

.LONG TERM...  (Friday Night through Next Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

Active pattern will continue over the weekend into next week as
global models show that the upper flow will be semi-zonal over
Missouri and Illinois.

The first chance of rain will come late Friday night into Saturday
night as GFS/ECMWF/Canadian show a shortwave trough and attendant
cold front dropping east southeastward from the northern Plains into
Missouri/Illinois.  After this first shortwave moves quickly off to
the east, a second shortwave will move across southern Missouri and
far southern Illinois late Sunday into Sunday night bringing another
chance of rain with some snow possibly mixed in based on forecast
soundings.  The best chance for showers will be Monday into Tuesday
ahead of deeper trough that will move across the area on Tuesday
night.  There will be stronger moisture transport ahead of it along
with some instability, so kept the chance of thunderstorms Monday
afternoon into Tuesday. Wednesday looks dry at this point behind the
upper trough as a surface high moves across the area before the next
upper trough and attendant front affects Missouri and Illinois next
Thursday.

Temperatures still look below normal through this period based on
clouds and rain chances as well as the ECMWF MOS and the GEFS mean
temps.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

Rain and IFR conditions will continue to move east and southeast
of the STL Metro terminals this evening. MVFR conditions will
continue overnight though as low level moisture progs from model
guidance depict saturation through 12Z. Can't rule out some patchy
fog and drizzle developing overnight. Improving conditions
expected on Friday with the sun making an appearance by afternoon.
Light northwest wind will back to the west on Friday.

VFR conditions to continue at KUIN with improving ceiling height
at KCOU this evening.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Radar depicts the precipitation shield is rapidly weakening and
starting to shift to the east/southeast. This trend will continue
with MVFR ceiling conditions likely continuing overnight given
abundant low level moisture in the atmosphere. Can't rule out some
patchy fog and light drizzle also developing overnight. Conditions
will rapidly improve tomorrow, with scattering cloud cover by
afternoon. Northwest wind will back to the west.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
330 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-301145-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
330 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms for much of the area from
Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

Britt

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4.5 WNW BELLEVILLE      38.55N 90.08W
03/29/2018  M0.94 INCH       ST. CLAIR          IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SINCE 7 A.M.

&&

JAM