Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2018
River Flood Warning 123, NWS St. Louis, MO
NWS St. Louis, MO issued this river flood warning at Oct 10, 2018, 1:48 PM CDT for Cole County, Osage County, Missouri. It was in force for 7 days.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 10, 2018, 1:48 PM CDT (18:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 17, 2018, 2:44 PM CDT
- In force
- 7 days
- Issued by
- NWS St. Louis, MO
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
Counties Cole County, MO, Osage County, MO
The radar
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Osage River at Mari-Osa Campground (MOAM7).
- Action stage
- 17 ft
- Minor stage
- 19 ft
- Moderate stage
- 22 ft
- Major stage
- 25 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
883
WGUS43 KLSX 101848
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
148 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018
...The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a flood
warning for the following river in Missouri...
Osage River near
Mari-Osa Campground
.This Flood Warning is a result of 1-3 inches of rainfall over the
past 24 hours...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC051-151-110730-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0123.181010T1848Z-181011T0730Z/
/MOAM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.181010T1800Z.181011T0130Z.UU/
148 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018
The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
* Until late tonight.
* At 1:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 19.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue.
* The river is currently cresting near 19.2 feet and is forecast to
fall back below flood stage late tonight.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15
Osage River
Mari-Osa Campg 19.0 19.20 17.8 17.7 17.5 16.5 14.7
&&
LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
3864 9198
$$12 follow-up statements
343
WGUS83 KLSX 110240
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
940 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Osage River near
Mari-Osa Campground
.This Flood Warning is a result of 1-3 inches of rainfall over the
past 24 hours...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC051-151-110340-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-181011T0325Z/
/MOAM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.181010T1800Z.181010T2125Z.UU/
940 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
* until this evening.
* At 1:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 19.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by
Thursday morning.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15
Osage River
Mari-Osa Campg 19.0 19.20 18.0 17.9 17.6 16.7 15.2
&&
LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
3864 9198
$$443
WGUS83 KLSX 120209
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
909 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Missouri..
Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
.This Flood Warning is a result of heavy rainfall across the basin
over the past week...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC051-151-130209-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-181013T1200Z/
/MOAM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.181012T0600Z.181013T0600Z.UU/
909 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
* until Saturday morning.
* At 7:15 AM Thursday the stage was 19.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 20.0 feet after
midnight tonight, then fall below flood stage early Saturday
morning.
* Impact: At 20.0 feet...Near this stage the lowest two campsites at
Mari-Osa campground begin flooding.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16
Osage River
Mari-Osa Campg 19.0 19.90 19.8 18.7 17.5 16.5 16.3
&&
LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
3864 9198
$$315
WGUS83 KLSX 121529
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1029 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following river in Missouri...
Osage River near
Mari-Osa Campground
.This Flood Warning is a result of heavy rainfall across the basin
over the past week...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC051-151-131200-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-181013T1200Z/
/MOAM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.181012T1400Z.181013T0600Z.UU/
1029 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
* Until Friday morning.
* At 9:00 AM Friday the stage was 20.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is currently cresting near 20.0 feet and is forecast to
fall back below flood stage Friday morning.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16 10/17
Osage River
Mari-Osa Campg 19.0 20.00 18.7 17.8 17.0 16.8 16.6
&&
LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
3864 9198
$$418
WGUS83 KLSX 121554
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1054 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following river in
Missouri...
Osage River near
Mari-Osa Campground
.This Flood Warning is a result of primarily backwater from the
Missouri River...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC051-151-131553-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-181015T0000Z/
/MOAM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.181012T1400Z.181014T1800Z.UU/
1054 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
* Until Sunday afternoon.
* At 9:00 AM Friday the stage was 20.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is currently cresting near 20.0 feet and is forecast to
fall back below flood stage Sunday afternoon.
* Impact: At 20.0 feet...Near this stage the lowest two campsites at
Mari-Osa campground begin flooding.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 10/13 10/14 10/15 10/16 10/17
Osage River
Mari-Osa Campg 19.0 20.00 19.8 19.2 18.5 18.0 17.5
&&
LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
3864 9198
$$383
WGUS83 KLSX 131616
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1116 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following river in
Missouri...
Osage River near
Mari-Osa Campground
.This Flood Warning is a result of backwater effects from the
Missouri River..
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC051-151-141614-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-181015T2000Z/
/MOAM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.181012T1400Z.181015T1400Z.UU/
1116 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
* Until Monday afternoon.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river is currently cresting near 20.0 feet and is forecast to
fall back below flood stage Monday afternoon.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 10/14 10/15 10/16 10/17 10/18
Osage River
Mari-Osa Campg 19.0 E20.00 19.6 19.1 17.9 15.5 13.7
&&
LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
3864 9198
$$652
WGUS83 KLSX 140125
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
825 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
.This Flood Warning is a result of backwater effects from the
Missouri River..
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The National Weather Service will monitor this developing situation
and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC051-151-150124-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-181016T1330Z/
/MOAM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.181014T0600Z.181016T0730Z.UU/
825 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
* until Tuesday morning.
* At 11:00 AM Saturday the stage was 20.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is currently cresting around 20 feet and is forecast to
fall below flood stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact: At 20.0 feet...Near this stage the lowest two campsites at
Mari-Osa campground begin flooding.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 10/14 10/15 10/16 10/17 10/18
Osage River
Mari-Osa Campg 19.0 20.30 20.3 19.9 18.7 16.7 14.7
&&
LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
3864 9198
$$744
WGUS83 KLSX 141450
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
950 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
.This Flood Warning is a result of Missouri River backwater and
0.1 to 0.2 inches of rainfall forecast in the next 48 hours...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC051-151-151450-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-181017T0712Z/
/MOAM7.1.ER.181010T1200Z.181014T1800Z.181017T0112Z.UU/
950 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
* until late Tuesday night.
* At 8:00 AM Sunday the stage was 20.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 20.4 feet by this afternoon,
then fall below flood stage Tuesday evening.
* Impact: At 20.0 feet...Near this stage the lowest two campsites at
Mari-Osa campground begin flooding.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 10/15 10/16 10/17 10/18 10/19
Osage River
Mari-Osa Campg 19.0 20.30 20.3 19.7 18.2 16.4 14.1
&&
LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
3864 9198
$$034
WGUS83 KLSX 151728
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following river in
Missouri...
Osage River near
Mari-Osa Campground
.This Flood Warning is a result of backwater from the Missouri
River and releases from Bagnell Dam...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The National Weather Service will monitor this developing situation
and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC051-151-161727-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-181016T1900Z/
/MOAM7.1.ER.181010T1200Z.181016T0000Z.181016T1300Z.UU/
1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
* Until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 10:00 AM Monday the stage was 19.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise to near 20.0 feet this evening, then
is expected to fall back below flood stage Tuesday morning.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 10/16 10/17 10/18 10/19 10/20
Osage River
Mari-Osa Campg 19.0 19.40 19.1 17.0 15.7 14.3 13.0
&&
LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
3864 9198
$$567
WGUS83 KLSX 161700
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
.This Flood Warning is a result of backwater from the Missouri
River and releases from Bagnell Dam...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The National Weather Service will monitor this developing situation
and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC051-151-162305-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-181016T2305Z/
/MOAM7.1.ER.181010T1200Z.181016T1600Z.181016T1705Z.UU/
1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
* until this evening.
* At 11:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 19.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by
this afternoon.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 10/17 10/18 10/19 10/20 10/21
Osage River
Mari-Osa Campg 19.0 19.60 17.0 15.7 14.3 13.0
&&
LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
3864 9198
$$257
WGUS83 KLSX 161935
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
235 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
.This Flood Warning is a result of backwater from the Missouri
River and releases from Bagnell Dam...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or
forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC051-151-171934-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-181018T0000Z/
/MOAM7.1.ER.181010T1200Z.181016T1600Z.181017T1800Z.UU/
235 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
* until Wednesday evening.
* At 11:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 19.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by
tomorrow early afternoon.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 10/17 10/18 10/19 10/20 10/21
Osage River
Mari-Osa Campg 19.0 19.60 19.1 17.8 16.2 14.9 13.5
&&
LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
3864 9198
$$386
WGUS83 KLSX 170111
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
811 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Missouri..
Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
.This Flood Warning is a result of backwater from the Missouri
River and releases from Bagnell Dam...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC051-151-180000-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-181018T0000Z/
/MOAM7.1.ER.181010T1200Z.181016T1600Z.181017T1800Z.UU/
811 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground
* until Wednesday evening.
* At 11:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 19.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by
tomorrow early afternoon.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 10/17 10/18 10/19 10/20 10/21
Osage River
Mari-Osa Campg 19.0 19.60 19.1 17.8 16.2 14.9 13.5
&&
LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
3864 9198
$$828
WGUS83 KLSX 171944
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
244 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018
...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Missouri...
Osage River at Mari-Osa Campground
.This Flood Warning was a result of Missouri River backwater and no
rainfall forecast in the next 48 hours...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even
higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as
conditions or forecasts change.
Safety message: Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas. The water may be too deep to allow for safe
passage.
This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.
&&
MOC051-151-172014-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-181018T0000Z/
/MOAM7.1.ER.181010T1200Z.181016T1600Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
244 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Osage River near Mari-Osa Campground.
* At 10:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 18.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage overnight. The river will fall to
17.7 feet by tomorrow morning.
&&
Fld Latest 7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION Stg Obs Stg 10/18 10/19 10/20 10/21 10/22
Osage River
Mari-Osa Campg 19.0 18.10 17.7 15.9 14.4 11.6 12.0
&&
LAT...LON 3871 9185 3873 9164 3868 9164 3855 9192
3864 9198
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 10, 12:45 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 10, 12:45 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1245 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Cold front extending from a surface low over west central IA south through northwest MO and southeast KS will move eastward today as a negatively tilted shortwave moves the region. A north to south band of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms was moving into the St Louis metro area early this morning, and will continue to translate slowly eastward. This activity was ahead of the cold front and in a region of low level moisture convergence associated with a southerly low level jet. There will be the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms containing locally heavy rainfall and damaging winds today, mainly across southwest IL due to favorable low-mid level wind shear as a mid level wind max moves over the area, along with sufficient CAPE. By afternoon most of the showers and storms will be across southwest IL into parts of southeast MO. Temperatures will fall today due to strong low level cold air advection behind the cold front. Tonight's lows will be much colder as a large and strong surface ridge over the northern Plains builds southeastward into MO, ending the chance for rain by early evening. Lows tonight will only be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, but it will feel quite cold due to the unseasonably warm conditions experienced for much of October so far. GKS .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Dry and much colder conditions can be expected Thursday and Thursday night. It may be cold enough across northeast MO and west central IL for patchy frost late Thursday night and early Friday morning, although increasing cloudiness will hinder frost formation. The models are now stronger with an upper level trough moving eastward through our region on Friday and hence have more QPF for the forecast area Friday into Friday evening despite the relatively dry surface/boundary layer with the surface ridge over our area on Friday. With cloud cover hindering diurnal solar insolation on Friday high temperatures should be 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Will see slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday with surface winds becoming southerly on the backside of the retreating surface high. Another round of precipitation can be expected Saturday night and Sunday, and possibly lingering into Monday morning. A southern stream shortwave and associated surface low will pass south of our area and lead to showers, particularly across southeast MO and southwest IL. A northern stream shortwave and associated cold front will drop southeastward through our forecast area Sunday and Sunday night behind the surface low. The operational GFS is a little more progressive than the ECMWF model and shifts the precipitation southeast of our forecast area Sunday afternoon, while the ECMWF does not shift the rain southeast of our area until Monday afternoon. For now will lean toward the slower solution. The cold front will bring another shot of cold air into the region Sunday night and Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF bring the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm south of our forecast area on Monday. GKS && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The cold front stretched from near KUIN southward across far eastern MO at midday. The cold front will continue to push east through the remainder of the afternoon. Thus far it has only been accompanied by spotty showers, and I think that will be the trend until it pushes into southwest IL this afternoon when there will be an opportunity for a few thunderstorms. Post-frontal clouds dominated by MVFR CIGS/flight conditions will remain extensive this afternoon through tonight, and I may be a bit optimistic with the trend to scattered in the TAFS near 12z. Gusty west winds are expected to persist through sunset and then resume some gustiness from the northwest on Thursday morning. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: The cold front will move through the terminal around 19z and will be accompanied by a brief chance for showers. In the wake of the cold front, gusty west winds and MVFR CIGS/flight conditions will persist through sunset. Post-frontal clouds dominated by MVFR CIGS/flight conditions will remain extensive tonight, and I may be a bit optimistic with the trend to scattered in the TAFS near 12z. Gusty northwest winds will resume on Thursday morning. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 10, 4:40 AM CDT, 9 hours 8 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 440 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-110945- Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO- Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO- Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO- Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO- Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO- 440 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The chance of thunderstorms will continue today. Isolated severe storms will be possible today, mainly across southwestern Illinois. The main threat will be damaging winds. Major river flooding is forecast on portions of the Mississippi River through the upcoming weekend as a result of previously fallen rain. See the appropriate Flood Warning or Flood Statement for specific details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Major river flooding is forecast on portions of the Mississippi River through the upcoming weekend as a result of previously fallen rain. See the appropriate Flood Warning or Flood Statement for specific details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed later this morning and this afternoon. Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather, if observed, to the National Weather Service. GKS
In the hours before
Local storm report, Oct 10, 8:21 AM CDT, 5 hours 27 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
821 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0811 AM HEAVY RAIN MEXICO 39.17N 91.87W
10/10/2018 M3.32 INCH AUDRAIN MO TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL PAST 24 HOURS.
&&
JPGLocal storm report, Oct 10, 8:22 AM CDT, 5 hours 26 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
822 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0811 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 W MEXICO 39.17N 91.93W
10/10/2018 M2.46 INCH AUDRAIN MO PUBLIC
RAINFALL PAST 24 HOURS.
&&
JPGLocal storm report, Oct 10, 8:32 AM CDT, 5 hours 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
832 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE THE LANDING 39.53N 91.65W
10/10/2018 M2.98 INCH RALLS MO CO-OP OBSERVER
24-HOUR TOTAL.
&&
JPGLocal storm report, Oct 10, 9:00 AM CDT, 4 hours 48 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
900 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN CALIFORNIA 38.63N 92.57W
10/10/2018 M2.45 INCH MONITEAU MO CO-OP OBSERVER
24-HOUR TOTAL.
&&
JPGThe office that day
Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 1:34 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | LSX | Lewis | 9 hr |
| Oct 10, 1:34 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | LSX | Lewis | 54 hr |
| Oct 10, 2:29 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | LSX | Marion | 30 hr |
| Oct 10, 2:29 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | LSX | Marion | 17 hr |
| Oct 10, 3:24 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | LSX | Lewis | 25 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2018Every river flood warning in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.