Frost Advisory 5, NWS St. Louis, MO

103 
WWUS73 KLSX 172020
NPWLSX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
320 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018


ILZ079-MOZ072>075-084-085-099-180830-
/O.CON.KLSX.FR.Y.0005.181018T0600Z-181018T1300Z/
Crawford MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-
Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO-
Including the cities of Chester, Farmington, and Sparta
320 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...As low as 34.

* TIMING...Frost could form as early as 1 AM, but is more likely 
  in the last few hours before sunrise on Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected. Those
with agricultural interests in the Advisory area should protect
tender vegetation. Also, potted plants normally left outdoors
should be covered or brought inside away from the cold.

&&

$$

Gosselin

908 
WWUS73 KLSX 181039
NPWLSX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
539 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018


ILZ079-MOZ072>075-084-085-099-181300-
/O.CON.KLSX.FR.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-181018T1300Z/
Crawford MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-
Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO-
Including the cities of Chester, Farmington, and Sparta
539 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...As low as 34.

* TIMING...Frost will form before sunrise this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected. Those
with agricultural interests in the Advisory area should protect
tender vegetation. Also, potted plants normally left outdoors
should be covered or brought inside away from the cold.

&&

$$

Byrd

521 
WWUS73 KLSX 181313
NPWLSX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
813 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

ILZ079-MOZ072>075-084-085-099-181415-
/O.EXP.KLSX.FR.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-181018T1300Z/
Crawford MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-
Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO-
Including the cities of Chester, Farmington, and Sparta
813 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Temperatures are beginning to climb back into the upper 30s and
the lower 40s now that the sun is up. Any frost is expected to
quickly dissipate.

$$

Britt

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1053 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

A weak cold front is expected to move through the bi-state area
tonight. No precipitation is expected with this frontal passage due
to low moisture content and meager low-level ascent. Outside of some
cirrus, most of the region should expect another clear night with
low temperatures dropping into the mid 30s to low 40s. Leaned at or
below cooler MET guidance for minimum temperatures tonight because
of favorable conditions for radiational cooling.

Another cool Autumn day is on tap for Wednesday along with a sunny
sky. High temperatures are expected to range from the mid 50s to low
60s from north to south. For reference, these readings would be
about 10 degrees below normal for the 17th of October.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Surface high pressure center is forecast to move southeastward
across the CWA late Wednesday night. This high will help provide
very favorable conditions for radiational cooling overnight due
to light/variable winds beneath a clear sky. While a freeze does
not appear likely, scattered to widespread frost will likely occur
with lows in the 30s. Speaking of frost, will only be mentioning
in areas that did not observe either widespread frost or a hard
freeze this morning. This includes portions of southeast Missouri
and southwest Illinois.

Temperatures should remain about 5-10 degrees below normal through
the remainder of the week and into next weekend. The next chance of
rain begins on Thursday night and continues into the day on Friday
ahead of the next approaching cold front. At this juncture, the best
chances of rain appear to be across portions of southeast Missouri
and southwest Illinois where strongest low-level warm/moist
advection and mid/upper level ascent should reside.

There is still a strong signal that a potent upper-level trough will
carve out across the eastern third of the CONUS late this weekend.
Specifics with respect to exact strength and longitudinal placement
of this trough axis will have a big impact on temperatures across
our neck of the woods. It does appear that continued below normal
temperatures are favored regardless Saturday night and Sunday, but
exactly how cold is the question. If the aforementioned digging
upper-level trough is stronger and/or slightly further to the
southwest, a freeze would certainly be on the table for those areas
that did not observe a freeze this morning. Timing of surface high
would also be of critical importance.

A quick rebound in temperatures on Monday is likely ahead of the
next cold front. High temperatures well into the 60s for many areas
is likely, which would be actually very close to normal for a
change. Behind the cold front, temperatures for next Tuesday look to
be back below normal.

Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

VFR and dry thru the period. A cdfnt will push thru the region
overnight bringing swly winds to nwly behind the fnt. Will need to
monitor conditions for steam fog potentially developing and
impacting KSUS/KCPS, but airmass may remain dry enough to prevent
development.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: VFR and dry thru the period. A cdfnt will
move thru bringing the swly winds to nnwly around sunrise. Winds
expected to remain below 10 kts thru the period.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
328 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-172030-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
328 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Major river flooding continues on the Mississippi River at Hannibal
and Saverton Lock and Dam. See the appropriate Flood Statement for
more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Major river flooding will continues on the Mississippi River at
Hannibal and Saverton through the end of this week. See the
appropriate Flood Statement for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

Gosselin