Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS St. Louis, MO

666 
WGUS73 KLSX 171254
FFSLSX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
754 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

ILC051-171304-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-180817T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fayette IL-
754 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR FAYETTE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3889 8926 3922 8925 3922 8881 3897 8881

$$

GKS

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1212 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

The main focus in the short term will be the severe weather
potential over the area this evening into the overnight hours.  A
cold front over northeast and central Missouri will slowly move east
this evening into the overnight hours through the forecast area. The
front will run into an environment of surface based CAPE values in
the range of 2500J/kg to 3000J/kg. There will be 30 to 40 knots of
bulk shear along with low and mid level lapse rates around 7C/km
over the area. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
this evening into the overnight hours over the forecast area.  The
primary hazards this evening into the overnight hours will be large
hail and damaging winds. The cold front will move to parts of
southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois by Friday morning and
remain over the area through Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be
just a couple of degrees above normal for the morning low and
daytime high on Friday.

Kelly

.LONG TERM...  (Friday Night through Next Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

A cold front over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois will
push into the Ohio Valley on Friday night. An area of high pressure
will slide into the region providing dry weather and seasonal
temperatures to the area on Saturday into Sunday. The high pressure
system will slide to the east by Sunday afternoon. A cold front will
into the area by late Sunday night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible over central and southeast Missouri. The
front will move through the area on Monday with the best chances for
showers and thunderstorms through the forecast area. The front will
move out of the area by Tuesday morning. An upper level disturbance
behind the front will provide just enough lift for isolated showers
and thunderstorms on Tuesday over the area. A area of high pressure
will slide east into the area on Wednesday and provide dry weather
to the area. Temperatures near seasonal values this weekend before
dropping to around 5 degrees below average through the middle of
next week.

Kelly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Two clusters of storms continue to press through the region. On
stretches from KUIN, east to near Springfield, IL. The second is
well south of any TAF sites. Some storms include heavy rain and
frequent lightning. Overall trends will be for lessening intensity
through the morning. Until storms exit, each could pose a threat
for localized drops in vsby and gusty winds to TAF sites.

Otherwise VFR conditions are anticipated through much of Friday.
There is a slight chance for an isolated afternoon storm, mainly
over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Winds will veer out
of the west and northwest through Friday afternoon.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Showers and thunderstorms are scattered about the region around
KSTL. The heaviest activity is located 50-70 miles north of the
terminal with a few showers to the west. The forecast is a little
more optimistic that it was early today with only a few showers
and isolated storm tonight through early morning. Unless a storm
directly impacts the site with MVFR vsbys, conditions should
remain VFR through much of the period.

Maples

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
348 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-171215-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
348 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected through tonight. A few of these storms
may become strong enough to produce damaging winds or large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms over parts of the area
Friday and Friday evening, and then again Sunday night into
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather to the
National Weather Service.

Britt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
900 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

MOZ034-035-042-170245-
Audrain MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
900 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RALLS...NORTHEASTERN
AUDRAIN AND SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 900 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Paris, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vandalia, Santa Fe, Perry, Laddonia and Farber.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in St Louis.

&&

LAT...LON 3946 9210 3949 9146 3945 9145 3945 9146
      3918 9142 3929 9211
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 274DEG 31KT 3936 9201

TES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1041 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

ILZ058-059-099-170415-
Macoupin IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
1041 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GREENE...NORTHWESTERN
MACOUPIN AND NORTHEASTERN JERSEY COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1041 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greenfield, moving east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Greenfield, Palmyra, Kemper, Kane, Medora, Wrights,
Chesterfield, Hettick, Rockbridge, Belltown, Berdan and Woody.

LAT...LON 3920 9051 3940 9045 3946 8999 3916 9002
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 270DEG 21KT 3933 9030

Tilly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1150 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

MOZ099-170545-
Reynolds MO-
1150 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN REYNOLDS COUNTY
UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1149 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Ellington, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm. This storm has a history of producing hail the size of
quarters as well as wind gusts around 55 mph in Shannon County.
While this storm has weakened, this storm may intensify again.

Locations impacted include...
Ellington and Garwood.

This also includes Clearwater Lake Recreational Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 9096 3710 9096 3710 9102 3717 9103
      3716 9107 3718 9107 3718 9109 3720 9109
      3720 9113 3726 9113 3732 9075 3717 9074
      3717 9075 3714 9076 3714 9078 3705 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 261DEG 30KT 3715 9115

Tilly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1236 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

ILZ060-064-065-170615-
Bond IL-Montgomery IL-Fayette IL-
1236 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BOND...NORTHWESTERN
FAYETTE AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1236 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hillsboro to near Livingston. Movement was
east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Litchfield, Hillsboro, Nokomis, Raymond, Witt, Taylor Springs,
Coffeen, Mulberry Grove, Schram City, Sorento, Woburn, Van
Burensburg, Reno, Irving, Panama, Fillmore, Coalton, Donnellson,
Butler and Ohlman.

This includes Interstate 70 in Illinois near exit 52.

This also includes  Ramsey Lake State Park and Lake Lou Yaeger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3890 8926 3899 8964 3900 8964 3900 8970
      3930 8962 3935 8942 3935 8914 3922 8914
      3921 8909
TIME...MOT...LOC 0536Z 272DEG 22KT 3924 8951 3899 8968

Tilly