Alert archive / California / Red Flag Warnings in 2018

Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Los Angeles, CA

October 13, 2018Los Angeles County, Santa Barbara County, California

NWS Los Angeles, CA issued this red flag warning at Oct 13, 2018, 3:18 PM PDT for Los Angeles County, Santa Barbara County, California. It took effect at Oct 14, 2018, 10:00 PM PDT. It was in force for 46 hr. 9 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Oct 13, 2018, 3:18 PM PDT (22:18 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 14, 2018, 10:00 PM PDT
Expired
Oct 16, 2018, 8:00 PM PDT
In force
46 hr
Issued by
NWS Los Angeles, CA

Counties Los Angeles County, CA, Santa Barbara County, CA

The radar

The Los Angeles radar (KVTX), 6 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Oct 15, 1:53 AM PDTHIGH SUST WINDS 418 Ese Castaic Lake, CAMESONET STATION WMSC1, WARM SPRINGS. WIND GUSTED TO 54 MPH.
Oct 15, 6:17 AM PDTNON-TSTM WND GST 622 Nw Malibu, CAMESONET STATION D1664, MALIBU STATION ELEVATION: 515 FT.
Oct 15, 6:58 AM PDTNON-TSTM WND GST 733 Sw Mount Wilson, CAMESONET STATION HNGC1, HENNINGER FLATS ELEVATION 2808 FT.
Oct 15, 7:55 AM PDTNON-TSTM WND GST 665 Nne San Fernando, CAMESONET STATION CNIC1, CAMP NINE.
Oct 15, 9:53 AM PDTNON-TSTM WND GST 588 Ese Castaic Lake, CAMESONET STATION WMSC1, WARM SPRINGS.
Oct 15, 12:53 PM PDTNON-TSTM WND GST 588 Nne Mount Wilson, CAMESONET STATION CHOC1, CHILAO.
Oct 15, 1:26 PM PDTNON-TSTM WND GST 657 Ssw Woodland Hills, CAMESONET STATION D2363, SADDLE PEAK STATION ELEVATION: 2450 FT.
Oct 15, 1:56 PM PDTNON-TSTM WND GST 678 Ssw Woodland Hills, CAMESONET STATION MBUC1, MALIBU HILLS STATION ELEVATION: 1575 FT.
Oct 15, 3:53 PM PDTNON-TSTM WND GST 589 Se Acton, CAMESONET STATION MLCC1, MILL CREEK.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Vandenberg AFB, CA (KVBG), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 130 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Vandenberg AFB, CA at 12:00Z on 2018-10-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Vandenberg AFB, CA at 12:00Z on 2018-10-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 40 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-306 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1454 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
152 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

598 
WWUS86 KLOX 132218
RFWLOX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
318 PM PDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY 
EVENING FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER 
MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...

.The previous Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag 
Warning. Gusty northeast winds will return Sunday afternoon and 
night, then continue into Wednesday, with strong upper level 
support. These winds will peak Sunday night through Monday when 
gusts in the 45 to 65 mph range are expected over the favored 
areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Widespread minimum 
humidities between 5 and 15 percent are likely. As a result, 
critical fire weather conditions are expected by Sunday night or
early Monday, then continuing through Tuesday over most of Los 
Angeles and Ventura Counties. There is a chance that critical 
conditions persist through Wednesday in the mountains and some
valleys.

CAZ246-141800-
/O.UPG.KLOX.FW.A.0007.181015T1000Z-181017T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KLOX.FW.W.0008.181015T0500Z-181017T0300Z/
Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area-
318 PM PDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE SANTA MONICA 
MOUNTAINS...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a
Red Flag Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 10 PM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday. The Fire Weather
Watch is no longer in effect.

* Winds...Northeast 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph. Isolated 
  gusts to 75 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 10 percent. Poor 
  overnight recoveries.

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 75 to 85 degrees warmer locations.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near 
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ253-254-141800-
/O.UPG.KLOX.FW.A.0007.181015T0500Z-181017T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KLOX.FW.W.0008.181015T0500Z-181017T0300Z/
Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest-
318 PM PDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE LOS ANGELES 
AND VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a
Red Flag Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 10 PM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday. The Fire Weather
Watch is no longer in effect.

* Winds...Northeast 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph. Isolated
  gusts to 75 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 5 to 15 percent. Poor 
  overnight recoveries.

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 75 to 85 degrees warmer locations.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable for
  extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near 
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ240-244-245-288-547-141800-
/O.UPG.KLOX.FW.A.0007.181015T1000Z-181017T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KLOX.FW.W.0008.181015T1000Z-181017T0300Z/
Ventura County Coast-Ventura County Interior Valleys-
Ventura County Coastal Valleys-Santa Clarita Valley-
Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
318 PM PDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE VENTURA COUNTY
VALLEYS AND COAST AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO 
VALLEYS...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a
Red Flag Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from 3 AM Monday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday. The Fire Weather 
Watch is no longer in effect.

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Isolated
  gusts to 65 mph in the hills.

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 81 to 91 degrees.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 10 percent. Poor 
  overnight recoveries.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near 
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ241-548-141800-
/O.UPG.KLOX.FW.A.0007.181015T1000Z-181017T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KLOX.FW.W.0008.181015T1000Z-181017T0300Z/
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley-
318 PM PDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE HILLS AND 
CANYONS OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a
Red Flag Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 3 AM Monday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday. The Fire Weather
Watch is no longer in effect.

* Winds...In the hills and canyons, Northeast 15 to 30 mph with 
  gusts to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 10 percent. Poor 
  overnight recoveries.

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 81 to 91 degrees.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable for
  extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near 
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

Kittell
6 follow-up statements
961 
WWUS86 KLOX 141646
RFWLOX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
946 AM PDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER
MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CUYAMA VALLEY...

.Offshore pressure trends have started this morning and the red
flag warning remains on-track. This is a high confidence forecast
as strong Santa Ana winds will kick in over the mountains late 
this evening or shortly after midnight, then reach the coast prior
to sunrise Monday morning. A very dry airmass over the Great Basin
will rapidly push downslope into western valleys and coastal
sections of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties late tonight. For
example, a 95 percent humidity at Camarillo at 1am Monday drops 
to 8 percent by 5am! Although recent rainfall has wet fuels, wind 
gusts of 45 to 65 mph by Monday morning will quickly dry out fuels
across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Widespread minimum 
humidities between 4 and 12 percent are likely Monday and Tuesday
with poor overnight recoveries. Offshore winds will decrease 
Monday afternoon, but another surge of wind regenerates Monday 
night into Tuesday morning. There is a chance that critical 
conditions persist through Wednesday in the mountains and some 
valleys.

In addition, have added the mountains of Santa Barbara and San
Luis Obispo Counties as well as the foothills of the Cuyama 
Valley to a fire weather watch from Monday morning through Tuesday
evening. These areas will not see winds as strong and mainly in 
the 15-25 mph range, but single digit humidities and no 
significant rainfall in recent days will create critical fire 
weather conditions. 

CAZ246-253-254-150100-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.181015T0500Z-181017T0300Z/
Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area-
Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest-
946 AM PDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...

* Winds...Northeast 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph. Isolated 
  gusts to 75 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 12 percent. Poor 
  overnight recoveries.

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 75 to 85 degrees warmer 
  locations.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ240-244-245-288-547-150100-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.181015T1000Z-181017T0300Z/
Ventura County Coast-Ventura County Interior Valleys-
Ventura County Coastal Valleys-Santa Clarita Valley-
Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
946 AM PDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM
PDT TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE VENTURA
COUNTY VALLEYS AND COAST AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS...

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Isolated 
  gusts to 65 mph in the hills.

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 81 to 91 degrees.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 12 percent. Poor 
  overnight recoveries.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ241-548-150100-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.181015T1000Z-181017T0300Z/
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley-
946 AM PDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM
PDT TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE HILLS AND
CANYONS OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...

* Winds...In the hills and canyons, Northeast 15 to 30 mph with 
  gusts to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 12 percent. Poor 
  overnight recoveries.

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 81 to 91 degrees.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ238-251-252-150100-
/O.NEW.KLOX.FW.A.0008.181015T1600Z-181017T0300Z/
Cuyama Valley-
San Luis Obispo County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Santa Barbara County Mountains-
946 AM PDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE CUYAMA VALLEY...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a
Fire Weather Watch FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is
in effect from Monday morning through Tuesday evening.

* Winds...East to northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. 

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 12 percent. Poor
  overnight recoveries.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$
881 
WWUS86 KLOX 142139
RFWLOX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
239 PM PDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY 
EVENING FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER 
MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER 
THE SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE 
FOOTHILLS OF THE CUYAMA VALLEY...

.Northeast winds have begun over the north slopes and Antelope
Valley this afternoon with offshore pressure trends developing. 
This is a high confidence forecast for a strong Santa Ana wind 
event late this evening over the mountains spreading to the 
valleys and coasts overnight and just prior to sunrise on Monday. 
A very dry airmass over the Great Basin will rapidly push 
downslope into western valleys and coastal sections of Los Angeles
and Ventura Counties late tonight. For example, a 95 percent 
humidity at Camarillo at 1am Monday drops to 8 percent by 5am! 
Although recent rainfall has wet fuels, wind gusts of 45 to 65 mph
by Monday morning will quickly dry out fuels across Los Angeles 
and Ventura Counties. Widespread minimum humidities between 4 and 
12 percent are likely Monday and Tuesday with poor overnight 
recoveries. Offshore winds will decrease Monday afternoon, but 
another surge of wind regenerates Monday night into Tuesday 
morning. Gusts will be about 10-20 mph weaker. There is a chance 
that critical conditions will persist through Wednesday in the 
mountains and some valleys.

In addition, have added the mountains of Santa Barbara and San
Luis Obispo Counties as well as the foothills of the Cuyama
Valley to a red flag warning from Monday morning through Tuesday 
evening. These areas will not see winds as strong and mainly in 
the 15-25 mph range, but single digit humidities and no 
significant rainfall in recent days will create critical fire 
weather conditions.

CAZ238-251-252-152030-
/O.UPG.KLOX.FW.A.0008.181015T1600Z-181017T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KLOX.FW.W.0008.181015T1600Z-181017T0300Z/
Cuyama Valley-
San Luis Obispo County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Santa Barbara County Mountains-
239 PM PDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR OVER THE SANTA 
BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF 
THE CUYAMA VALLEY...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a
Red Flag Warning FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in
effect from 9 AM Monday to 8 PM PDT Tuesday. The Fire Weather
Watch is no longer in effect.

* Winds...East to northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 10 percent. Poor 
  overnight recoveries.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

CAZ246-253-254-152030-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.181015T0500Z-181017T0300Z/
Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area-
Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest-
239 PM PDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...

* Winds...Northeast 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph. Isolated 
  gusts to 75 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 12 percent. Poor 
  overnight recoveries.

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 75 to 85 degrees warmer 
  locations.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ240-244-245-288-547-152030-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.181015T1000Z-181017T0300Z/
Ventura County Coast-Ventura County Interior Valleys-
Ventura County Coastal Valleys-Santa Clarita Valley-
Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
239 PM PDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM
PDT TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE VENTURA
COUNTY VALLEYS AND COAST AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN
FERNANDO VALLEYS...

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Isolated 
  gusts to 65 mph in the hills.

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 81 to 91 degrees.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 12 percent. Poor 
  overnight recoveries.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ241-548-152030-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.181015T1000Z-181017T0300Z/
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley-
239 PM PDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM
PDT TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE HILLS AND
CANYONS OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...

* Winds...In the hills and canyons, Northeast 15 to 30 mph with 
  gusts to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 12 percent. Poor 
  overnight recoveries.

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 81 to 91 degrees.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$
503 
WWUS86 KLOX 151643
RFWLOX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
943 AM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE 
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND 
VENTURA COUNTIES...

...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE 
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SAN 
LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CUYAMA 
VALLEY...

.Strong Santa Ana winds were peaking this morning and will 
continue to bring very dry air across the district today. Wind 
gusts of 55-65 mph in the mountains and foothills, and gusts 40-50
mph in the valleys/coasts will decrease in the afternoon. There 
may be a few hours of reverse onshore flow in the Oxnard Plain 
early this evening then all areas will return to offshore flow 
tonight through Tuesday. Wind speeds will not be as strong, 
however, recoveries will remain poor with more widespread single 
digit humidities expected on Tuesday. In addition, marginal red 
flag conditions are expected in the north county of Santa Barbara 
County and across the eastern San Luis Obispo County Mountains due
to single digit humidity and locally gusty northeast winds through
Tuesday.

Continued dry offshore flow will persist through the remainder of
the week, but there appears to be enough humidity recovery at
night and minimums mostly in the teens by Wednesday. This will
likely allow red flags to expire on time. 

CAZ246-253-254-160045-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181017T0300Z/
Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area-
Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest-
943 AM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...

* Winds...Northeast 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Isolated 
  gusts to 70 mph until early afternoon.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 12 percent. Poor 
  overnight recoveries.

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 75 to 85 degrees warmer 
  locations.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ240-244-245-288-547-160045-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181017T0300Z/
Ventura County Coast-Ventura County Interior Valleys-
Ventura County Coastal Valleys-Santa Clarita Valley-
Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
943 AM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND
COAST AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS...

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Isolated 
  gusts to 60 mph in the hills until early afternoon.

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 80 to 90 degrees.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 12 percent. Poor 
  overnight recoveries.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ241-548-160045-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181017T0300Z/
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley-
943 AM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE HILLS AND CANYONS OF THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...

* Winds...In the hills and canyons, Northeast 15 to 30 mph with 
  gusts to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 12 percent. Poor 
  overnight recoveries.

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 81 to 91 degrees.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ238-251-252-160045-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181017T0300Z/
Cuyama Valley-
San Luis Obispo County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Santa Barbara County Mountains-
943 AM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SAN
LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CUYAMA
VALLEY...

* Winds...East to northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 12 percent. Poor 
  overnight recoveries.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
572 
WWUS86 KLOX 152142
RFWLOX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
242 PM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES...

...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SAN
LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CUYAMA
VALLEY...

.Santa Ana winds remain rather stout this afternoon, but will 
back off through the early evening hours before picking up again 
overnight into Tuesday morning. Northeast wind gusts of 45-55 mph 
in the mountains and 35-45 mph in the valleys will occur across 
favored areas of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, then decrease 
Tuesday afternoon. Humidities will not recover much overnight with
many areas remaining between 10-20 percent, then dropping back 
into single digits on Tuesday. In addition, marginal red flag 
conditions are expected in the north country of Santa Barbara 
County and across the eastern San Luis Obispo County Mountains due
to single digit humidity and locally gusty northeast winds 
through Tuesday.

There is a low probability of extending the red flag in a few
locations Tuesday night, mainly for the foothills on the downslope
side of the mountains due to poor recoveries and locally gusty
winds. 

Another weak Santa Ana event is possible Friday through Sunday
morning. 

CAZ246-253-254-161845-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181017T0300Z/
Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area-
Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest-
242 PM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...

* Winds...Northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Isolated
  gusts to 60 mph western peaks. 

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 10 percent. Poor
  overnight recovery.

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 75 to 85 degrees warmer 
  locations.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ240-244-245-288-547-161845-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181017T0300Z/
Ventura County Coast-Ventura County Interior Valleys-
Ventura County Coastal Valleys-Santa Clarita Valley-
Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
242 PM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS AND
COAST AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARITA AND SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS...

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. 

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 80 to 90 degrees.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 10 percent. Poor
  overnight recovery.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ241-548-161845-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181017T0300Z/
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley-
242 PM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE HILLS AND CANYONS OF THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST AND SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...

* Winds...In the hills and canyons, Northeast 15 to 25 mph with 
  gusts to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 10 percent. Poor
  overnight recovery.

* Temperatures...Daily maximums 81 to 91 degrees.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution near
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ238-251-252-161845-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181017T0300Z/
Cuyama Valley-
San Luis Obispo County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Santa Barbara County Mountains-
242 PM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SAN
LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CUYAMA
VALLEY...

* Winds...East to northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Daily minimums 4 to 10 percent. Overnight
  recoveries mainly 20-35 percent. 

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
466 
WWUS86 KLOX 161652
RFWLOX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
952 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY 
OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER MOST VALLEYS AND
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...

.The Red Flag Warnings for the coastal areas, as well as the
interior areas of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties will
be canceled for today. The winds will not be strong enough for Red
Flag, but very dry conditions will maintain elevated concerns. The
remaining Red Flag Warnings will expire at 8pm this evening, with
no plans to extend them. The gusty offshore winds will continue 
today, but will be weaker and less expansive than yesterday. Wind
gusts between 30 and 50 mph should be expected in the wind prone 
valleys and mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. The 
strongest winds will be in the late morning and early afternoon 
hours. Relative humidities will be slightly higher than yesterday,
but still very dry with minimums generally in the 5 to 10 percent
range away from the coast. The winds and humidities will improve 
slowly each day through Thursday but remain locally breezy and
dry.

CAZ238-240-241-251-252-161800-
/O.CAN.KLOX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181017T0300Z/
Cuyama Valley-Ventura County Coast-
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
San Luis Obispo County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Santa Barbara County Mountains-
952 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CUYAMA VALLEY...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has cancelled
the Red Flag Warning.

Breezy offshore winds will bring elevated fire weather concerns
today, but any duration of critical conditions should be well
under 6 hours. Therefore the Red Flag Warnings have been canceled.
Red Flag warnings remain for the Los Angeles and Ventura County
valleys and mountains through 8pm this evening. 

$$

CAZ246-253-254-170300-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181017T0300Z/
Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area-
Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest-
952 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...

* Winds...North to northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. 

* Relative Humidity...Minimums 5 to 10 percent. 

* Temperatures...Maximums 75 to 85 degrees warmer locations.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with 
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ244-245-288-547-170300-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181017T0300Z/
Ventura County Interior Valleys-Ventura County Coastal Valleys-
Santa Clarita Valley-Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
952 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS
AS WELL AS THE SAN FERNANDO AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS...

* Winds...North to northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
  Isolated gusts to 45 mph in the hills.

* Temperatures...Maximums 80 to 90 degrees.

* Relative Humidity...Minimums 5 to 10 percent. 

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with 
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

CAZ548-170300-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181017T0300Z/
Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley-
952 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE HILLS AND CANYONS OF
THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...

* Winds...In the hills and canyons, East to northeast 10 to 20 
  mph with gusts to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...Minimums 4 to 10 percent. 

* Temperatures...Maximums 80 to 90 degrees.

* Impacts...If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable 
  for extreme fire behavior which would threaten life and 
  property.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior. Use extreme caution with 
fire ignition sources.

&&

$$

Kittell
859 
WWUS86 KLOX 170303
RFWLOX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
803 PM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...RED FLAG WARNINGS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

.Critical fire weather conditions have ended across the area.
Therefore, the Red Flag Warnings have been allowed to expire.

With weak offshore flow expected to continue through the
week, elevated fire weather conditions can be expected across
the area. 

CAZ244>246-253-254-288-547-548-170415-
/O.EXP.KLOX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181017T0300Z/
Ventura County Interior Valleys-Ventura County Coastal Valleys-
Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area-
Ventura County Mountains / Los Padres National Forest-
Los Angeles County Mountains / Angeles National Forest-
Santa Clarita Valley-Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley-
803 PM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Critical fire weather conditions are no longer expected. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Los Angeles, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Oct 13, 1:52 PM PDT, 1 hour 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 13, 1:52 PM PDT, 1 hour 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
152 PM PDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...13/1150 AM.

Skies will continue clearing this afternoon as a low pressure
center exits the area. Offshore flow will increase resulting in
drier air. Gusty Santa Ana winds will persist for the next few
days.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...13/149 PM.

The upper level low that affected the area last night into this
morning was centered over extreme south-central CA early this
afternoon. This system will move E to the lower Colorado
River Vly by early this evening.  Wraparound showers continued
along and just E of the L.A./SBD county border from the mtns to
coast. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies covered much of
L.A./VTU Counties with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. Temperatures
today will be on the cool side for VTU/L.A. Counties with highs 5 to
10 deg below normal, while SLO/SBA Counties with a bit more sunshine
should have highs near to slightly  below normal overall. The
warmest vlys will be in the lower 70s this afternoon, with some
temps around 80 for the interior SLO County vlys.

The upper level low will move further E into AZ tonight. A rather
sharp E-W oriented upper level trof is forecast to develop over
the central Great Basin Sun then drop S into srn CA Sun night
before developing into an upper level low near the lower Colorado
River Vly by late Mon afternoon. The upper low will then become
nearly stationary near this area Mon night thru Tue, with a broad
N flow aloft over srn CA.

Marine layer clouds will expand along the coast and vlys tonight,
with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Some offshore flow will
develop later tonight and push the low clouds closer to the coast
by early Sun morning, but overall it looks like skies will be
mostly sunny during the day on Sun except for patchy low clouds
near the beaches thru the afternoon. Temps on Sun will be warmer
for L.A./VTU Counties with more sunshine, but overall temps across
the region will be near normal to a few degrees below normal.

Swrn CA is still on track to have it's first significant Santa Ana
wind event of the season Sun night and Mon, with possible damaging
winds at least in the L.A./VTU County mtns including the Santa
Monica range. The upper level trof moving into the area will help to
increase offshore surface pressure gradients, with the NAM
forecasting LAX-DAG down to -7.2 mb at 12Z Mon morning. These strong
offshore gradients will also be accompanied with cold air advection
and upper level support. 850 MB winds up to 50 kt and 950 mb winds
up to 60 kt are predicted by the NAM over portions of VTU/L.A.
Counties 12Z-15Z Mon morning. All-in-all it looks like there is the
potential for a high wind event at least for the L.A./VTU County
mtns with gusts over 60 mph, possibly as high as 70 mph or more over
isolated peaks. At lower elevations across the L.A./VTU County vlys
and coasts, a strong wind advisory event with gusts of 45 to 55 mph
is expected, altho winds could approach high wind criteria at times
especially in the hills where isolated gusts to 60 to 65 mph cannot
be ruled out.

Support for at least advisory-level northeast winds will continue
for Mon night and Tue for much of L.A./VTU Counties, with the
potential for some gusts to 60 mph in the mtns. There may also be
the need for Wind Advisories in the Antelope Vly as northeast wind
gusts up to 45 mph can be expected Mon and Mon night.

Due to the expected winds, will be issuing a High Wind Watch for
Sun night and Mon for the L.A./VTU County mtns with this
afternoon's zone package. Wind advisories will likely be issued for
much of the rest of L.A./VTU Counties either tonight or Sun.

Otherwise, except for a few coastal low clouds possible early Sun
evening, skies will be clear across the region Sun night thru Tue.
Temps on Mon and Tue should turn a few degrees above normal for the
coast and vlys, but cool to near normal to several degrees below
normal for the Antelope Vly.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...13/150 PM.

The GFS and EC are in generally good agreement for the extended
period. The upper level low will meander over AZ to the Four Corners
region Wed thru Sat for the most part, while upper level ridging
persists along and off the CA coast and into the Pac NW.

Clear skies will prevail across the forecast area during the period
thanks to persistent offshore flow. Some gusty NE winds can be
expected again Tue night into Wed morning in the wind-prone areas,
but should be below advisory levels. Weaker offshore flow can then
be expected night and morning hours Wed night thru Sat, with weak
onshore flow each afternoon and evening.

Temps are forecast to have minor day-to-day differences and should
be a few degrees above normal overall across the region. Even so,
the warmest day during the extended period should be on Sat with
highs in the warmest vlys expected to reach the mid 80s to around
90.

&&

.AVIATION...13/1847Z.

At 18z at KLAX... There was no inversion.

Overall... Moderate confidence in the current TAFs. Showers are
moving off to the southeast but low clouds are developing in the
immediate aftermath near coastal and adjacent valley terminals.
All of this will scatter out by mid afternoon. There is a slight
chance of isolated thunderstorms developing in primarily Los
Angeles County this evening. After 06z there is a fifty five
percent chance of MVFR conditions developing at coastal and
adjacent valley locations... LIFR/IFR at KSMX 10z-15z. These
chances will drop dramatically south of Point Conception if the
offshore winds begin sooner rather than later. Otherwise and
elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail.

KLAX... Moderate confidence in the current TAF. Showers are
moving off to the southeast but some low clouds are developing in
the immediate aftermath. All of this will scatter out by mid
afternoon. There is a less than ten percent chance of isolated
thunderstorms developing in the vicinity this evening. From 09z to
19z there is a fifty five percent chance of MVFR conditions
developing. This chance will drop dramatically if the offshore
winds begin sooner rather than later. Otherwise VFR conditions
will prevail. There will be no east winds greater than eight knots
during the forecast period... unless... thunderstorms move over
the terminal. Thunderstorm winds can be erratic and shift quickly.

KBUR... Moderate confidence in the current TAF. Showers are
moving off to the southeast but some low clouds are developing in
the immediate aftermath. All of this will scatter out by mid
afternoon. There is a less than ten percent chance of isolated
thunderstorms developing in the vicinity this evening. After 13z
there is a fifty five percent chance of MVFR conditions developing.
This chance will drop dramatically if the offshore winds begin
sooner rather than later. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...13/129 PM.

For the Outer Waters... There will be occasional northeasterly
wind gusts to 25 kts late Sunday night through Monday morning
across the southern outer waters... otherwise and elsewhere
conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
through Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters... Northeasterly wind gusts to 25 kts and
locally to 35 kts are likely late Sunday night through Monday due
to offshore winds. Otherwise conditions will remain below SCA
levels through Wednesday. The strongest winds will be south of
Ventura and out to the Channel Islands and Santa Catalina Island.
Boaters should be aware of rough seas especially in and around
east facing harbors.

A moderate-period south to southwest swell from former Tropical
Cyclone Sergio will diminish through the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...13/122 PM.

Elevated surf and strong rip currents will continue through the
weekend as a swell from former Tropical Cyclone Sergio slowly
diminishes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...13/124 PM.

Our first Santa Ana wind event of the season will bring gusty
northeast winds Sunday afternoon through Wednesday. These winds
will be strongest Sunday night through Monday when gusts in the
45 to 65 mph range are expected over the favored areas of Los
Angeles and Ventura Counties. The winds weaken some each day
through Wednesday, but remain gusty at times, especially Monday
night and Tuesday. Widespread minimum humidities of 5 to 10
percent are likely. While recent rains may delay some fuels from
becoming critically dry until later Monday, live and fine dead
fuels will be critical. As a result, Red Flag conditions are
possible as early as Sunday afternoon, and all but certain Sunday
night through Tuesday over most of Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties. The previous Fire Weather Watches will be converted to
Red Flag Warnings. There is a chance that that Red Flag conditions
will persist through Wednesday in the mountains and some valleys.
With weaker winds but very dry conditions, Santa Barbara and San
Luis Obispo Counties will experience elevated conditions but are
not expected to be Red Flag. Some improvement is expected by
Thursday, but light and dry offshore flow will persist into the
following week.

This is a dangerous situation. The public needs to use extreme
caution with any potential fire ignition sources. Large fires
have been started by things like discarded cigarettes, campfires,
welding equipment, metallic weed wackers, and dragging trailer
chains.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday evening for
      zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Wind Watch in effect from late Sunday night through
      Monday afternoon for zones 46-53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 3 AM Monday to 8 PM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 240-241-244-245-288-547-548.
      (See LAXRFWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 PM Sunday to 8 PM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 246-253-254. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (TUE-SAT).

Gusty Santa Ana winds are expected Tuesday through Wednesday. The
Santa Ana winds will bring the possibility of an extended period
of critical fire weather conditions.

&&

PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Kj
MARINE...Kj
BEACHES...Kj
FIRE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...TF

weather.gov/losangeles

The office that day

Everything else NWS Los Angeles, CA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 12, 6:22 PM PDTSpecial Marine WarningLOX83 min
Oct 12, 6:32 PM PDTSpecial Weather StatementLOXLos Angeles43 min
Oct 12, 7:20 PM PDTSpecial Weather StatementLOXLos Angeles85 min
Oct 12, 7:46 PM PDTSpecial Marine WarningLOX59 min
Oct 12, 8:47 PM PDTSpecial Marine WarningLOX88 min
Oct 12, 9:25 PM PDTSpecial Weather StatementLOXLos Angeles80 min
Oct 12, 10:20 PM PDTSpecial Marine WarningLOX85 min
Oct 13, 2:01 PM PDTHigh Wind WatchLOX21 hr
Oct 13, 2:35 PM PDTSmall Craft AdvisoryLOX55 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in California, 2018Every red flag warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.