Beach Hazards Statement 17, NWS Los Angeles, CA

313 
WHUS46 KLOX 020321
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
721 PM PST Sat Dec 1 2018

CAZ034-035-021600-
/O.CON.KLOX.BH.S.0017.000000T0000Z-181203T0200Z/
San Luis Obispo County Central Coast-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast-
721 PM PST Sat Dec 1 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...Elevated surf will persist through
  Sunday afternoon. West and northwest facing beaches will see 6 
  to 8 foot breakers with local max sets to 10 feet. Strong rip 
  currents are also expected through this time. 

* Impacts...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can wash people off beaches and rocks and 
  capsize small boats near shore. Pooling of sea water is 
  possible around high tide at beach and harbor areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when threats such as rip
currents...longshore currents...sneaker waves and other hazards
create life-threatening conditions in the surf zone. Swim near a
lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't
swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following
the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or
wave for help.

&&

$$

CAZ039>041-087-021600-
/O.CON.KLOX.BH.S.0017.000000T0000Z-181203T0200Z/
Santa Barbara County South Coast-Ventura County Coast-
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-
721 PM PST Sat Dec 1 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...Elevated surf will persist through
  Sunday afternoon. Exposed, west-facing beaches will see 4 to 6 
  foot breakers. Strong rip currents are also expected through 
  this time. 

* Impacts... There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can wash people off beaches and rocks and 
  capsize small boats near shore. Pooling of sea water is 
  possible around high tide at beach and harbor areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when threats such as rip
currents...longshore currents...sneaker waves and other hazards
create life-threatening conditions in the surf zone. Swim near a
lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't
swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following
the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or
wave for help.

&&

$$

Smith

944 
WHUS46 KLOX 021529
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
729 AM PST Sun Dec 2 2018

CAZ034-035-030200-
/O.CON.KLOX.BH.S.0017.000000T0000Z-181203T0200Z/
San Luis Obispo County Central Coast-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast-
729 AM PST Sun Dec 2 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...Elevated surf will persist through 
  Sunday afternoon. West and northwest facing beaches will see 6 
  to 8 foot breakers with local max sets to 10 feet. Strong rip 
  currents are also expected through this time. 

* Impacts...There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can wash people off beaches and rocks and 
  capsize small boats near shore. Pooling of sea water is 
  possible around high tide at beach and harbor areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when threats such as rip
currents...longshore currents...sneaker waves and other hazards
create life-threatening conditions in the surf zone. Swim near a
lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't
swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following
the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or
wave for help.

&&

$$

CAZ039>041-087-030200-
/O.CON.KLOX.BH.S.0017.000000T0000Z-181203T0200Z/
Santa Barbara County South Coast-Ventura County Coast-
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-
729 AM PST Sun Dec 2 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...Elevated surf will persist through 
  Sunday afternoon. Exposed, west-facing beaches will see 4 to 6 
  foot breakers. Strong rip currents are also expected through 
  this time. 

* Impacts... There is an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip 
  currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large 
  breaking waves can wash people off beaches and rocks and 
  capsize small boats near shore. Pooling of sea water is 
  possible around high tide at beach and harbor areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when threats such as rip
currents...longshore currents...sneaker waves and other hazards
create life-threatening conditions in the surf zone. Swim near a
lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't
swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following
the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or
wave for help.

&&

$$

Sweet

884 
WHUS46 KLOX 030149
CFWLOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
549 PM PST Sun Dec 2 2018

CAZ034-035-030300-
/O.EXP.KLOX.BH.S.0017.000000T0000Z-181203T0200Z/
San Luis Obispo County Central Coast-
Santa Barbara County Central Coast-
549 PM PST Sun Dec 2 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM PST THIS EVENING...

The surf has subsided below thresholds for beach hazards
statements, however local hazards such as rip currents may
continue on some beaches. 

$$

CAZ039>041-087-030300-
/O.EXP.KLOX.BH.S.0017.000000T0000Z-181203T0200Z/
Santa Barbara County South Coast-Ventura County Coast-
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-
549 PM PST Sun Dec 2 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM PST THIS EVENING...

The surf has subsided below thresholds for beach hazards
statements, however local hazards such as rip currents may
continue on some beaches. 


$$

Smith

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1005 AM PST Sat Dec 1 2018

updated aviation discussion

.SYNOPSIS...01/831 AM.

A weak storm system will move across areas N of Point Conception
and across the northern slopes of the mountains today. There is a
chance of rain and light snow in some mountain areas, mainly near
the Grapevine. Cool temperatures is expected through next week.
A stronger storm system could move into the region by the middle
of next week bringing a chance of rain and snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...01/933 AM.

Satellite imagery continues to show some clouds banked up across
the interior slopes of the forecast area this morning. In
addition, some clouds starting to stream into SLO county in
advance of a fast moving and weak cold front. Currently light
precipitation falling across Monterey county with this weak
front, but light rain will likely spread into SLO and much of
SBA counties this afternoon. Rainfall amounts will generally
be less than 0.10 inches for SLO/SBA counties, but locally higher
amounts expected across far northern SLO county coast and adjacent
foothills (near Hearst Castle).

In addition, there will continue to be a light precipitation
threat across the north facing mountain slopes of LA/Ventura
counties through Sunday morning, with the greatest threat tonight.
Snow levels will generally remain above 5000 feet today, but are
expected to lower to around 3500 feet by late tonight and early
Sunday morning. We could see 1 to 3 inches of snow across some
of the north facing slopes above 5000 feet, with perhaps a dusting
to 1 inch of snow across Interstate 5 near the Grapevine late
tonight into early Sunday morning when the snow level lowers.

The other short term concern will be cool and windy conditions
across many areas today through tonight. Will plan to add some
wind advisories for later today into tonight across the SBA county
mountains and south coast, I5 corridor in the LA/Ventura county
mountains, and Antelope Valley. These areas are expected to see
wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range, with isolated gusts as high
as 50 mph in favored mountain locations.

*** From previous discussion ***

Brisk but dry NW flow will continue over the area on Sunday. The
clouds and occasional showers will continue over the mountains
near the Kern County line, but otherwise it will be mostly sunny.
All of the cold air advection will counter the increased sunshine
and max temps will change little from today's readings.

A ridge will begin to move into the area on Monday. Offshore flow
will develop as cold sfc high pressure builds into Great Basin.
There will be some NE canyon breezes in the morning but nothing
near advisory levels. There will be 2 to 4 degrees of warming but
max temps will still be a little below normal.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...01/325 AM.

The ridge will move over the state on Tuesday. Offshore flow will
continue in the morning. There is no upper or thermal support so
any NW canyon winds will not reach advisory levels. Skies will be
partly cloudy as clouds from an approaching storm move through the
ridge. Still there will be another 2 to 4 degrees of warming which
will take max temps up to seasonal normals and will make Tuesday
the warmest day of the next 7.

The ridge will quickly be pushed to the east by an approaching
storm. Clouds will increase overnight and a chc of rain will
develop across the Central Coast Tuesday night.

Both the GFS and EC agree that a storm will affect the area
Wednesday and Thursday. The mdls continue to disagree on the
details. The EC is slower and moves a closed low over the southern
half of the state will the GFS only has a trof and moves it
through a little quicker. The big problem with this system is that
the sfc low is much further south than usual. The lows position
will induce offshore easterly flow. This kind of flow produces a
low level drying flow which would greatly reduce the rain amounts.
The mdls are right now picking up and this and both show the
heaviest rain over the ocean and not the land. Right now the EC is
the wettest mdl as it brings quite a bit of rain to the area
Thursday as the sfc low transverses the state. The forecast of
this system will likely take a few twists and turns over the next
few days and will be watched closely.

The Mdls disagree for the Friday forecast. The GFS brings a ridge
while the EC has a weak trof along with some light rain. The EC
seems a little too aggressive and think the ridge will follow the
trof as fcst by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1804Z.

At 1730Z...there was no marine inversion present at KLAX.

Generally hi confidence in the 18Z TAFs, except moderate confidence
at KPRB, KSBP and KSMX mainly due to periods of MVFR cigs expected
this afternoon into early this evening. The timing of the onset and
clearing of the low clouds may be off +/- 1 to 2 hours and may be
intermittent at best. In addition, there will be LIFR cigs at KPRB
until about 19Z, but the low clouds may be stubborn until 20Z.

Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected at all the airfields
through Sun morning. Gusty W to NW winds should affect many coastal
airfields this afternoon into early this evening, with gusty mainly
W winds expected at KPMD and KWJF thru late tonight.

KLAX...Hi confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conditions expected
thru Sun afternoon. Gusty westerly winds can be expected this
afternoon into early this evening.

KBUR...Hi confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conditions expected
thru Sun morning.

&&

.MARINE...01/843 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels with northwest wind gusts to 30
knots will likely continue through Sunday evening. After a lull
on Monday, there is a 70% chance of southeast winds increasing to
SCA levels on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of an approaching storm
system. There are two headlines for PZZ670 as the high seas will
give way to SCA level winds by noon.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence for SCA
level wind gusts will prevail this afternoon through late
tonight. There is a 70% chance of SCA level southeast winds
Tuesday and Wednesday. There are two headlines for PZZ645 as the
high seas will give way to SCA level winds by noon.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence
for SCA level wind gusts will prevail this afternoon through late
tonight. There is a 30% chance that SCA level wind gusts will
continue in PZZ655 from Point Mugu to San Mateo Pt into Sunday
morning. There is a 60% chance of SCA level southeast winds on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

The large west-northwesterly swell will gradually diminish
through today.

&&

.BEACHES...01/843 AM.

The large, long-period, westerly swell will continue to slowly
diminish today. As the swell subsides, the surf conditions will
also subside.

For the Central Coast, expect surf to remain at high levels
through noon today. So, will keep HIGH SURF ADVISORY in effect
for this area until noon. Surf will begin to diminish after that.

For the beaches south of Point Conception, high surf conditions
will also continue through noon today, although the highest
breakers will likely affect the Ventura County Coast.

Strong rip currents will continue to affect all areas through
this evening and are likely to persist into Sunday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones
      34-35-39>41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for
      zones 645-650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Sunday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (MON-FRI).

Advisory level northerly winds possible at times early next week,
especially southern Santa Barbara County and the Interstate 5
corridor. Periods of heavy rain possible next Wednesday and
Thursday with snow in the mountains.

&&

PUBLIC...Gomberg/Rorke
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Kaplan/Sirard
BEACHES...Kaplan/Smith
SYNOPSIS...Kaplan/B

weather.gov/losangeles