Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
256 PM EDT Mon May 28 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 28 2018

Warm and humid conditions prevail across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky this afternoon. The first outer spiral bands
associated with Alberto have entered into southern Kentucky as
mid/high clouds continue to stream in from the south. Additional
showers and isolated storms are firing up across central Kentucky in
a weak convergent zone.

For the remainder of this afternoon and into the evening hours,
expect an uptick in coverage and intensity of showers/storms across
central Kentucky. Hi-res CAMs show an east/west oriented band
setting up along/south of Louisville and Lexington through the mid
evening hours. Given the high moisture in place (PWATs running 1.7
to 1.8 inches) and slow storm motion expected (less than 20 mph),
localized heavy rain could become an issue. Some of the model output
is showing 1 to locally 2 inches possible. If caught under one of
the storms, expect brief torrential downpours in addition to
lightning and gusty winds.

A lull in shower/storm activity is expected overnight and with an
abundance of cloud cover and low level moisture, it'll be a muggy
night with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Showers will be
possible starting in the morning hours, but expect the highest
coverage of showers/storms associated with Alberto to come in the
afternoon, moving in from the south as the center of the storm
tracks into southwest Kentucky. With the increased cloud cover and
chances for widespread rain, highs will be several degrees lower
across south central Kentucky while southern Indiana may still climb
into the mid 80s.

The risk for flash flooding due to excessive rainfall from Alberto
ramps up in the afternoon hours through Wednesday morning. While
some areas have been a bit dry recently, there have been localized
higher amounts in the past few days. And depending on how the rest
of today plays out, the flash flood guidance may end up slightly
lower. Given this and the potential for 2-3 inches of rain across
parts of the area, a Flash Flood Watch will be issued for areas
generally along/west of I-65 in KY/IN.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 28 2018

...Unsettled Weather Period This Week With Heavy Rainfall...

Model consensus and NHC forecast place the remnants of Alberto in
the Nashville vicinity Tuesday evening, with its swath of tropical
air already invading our region by then. Parts, if not all, of our
area will be in the right front quadrant of this system as it moves
into southwest Indiana by daybreak Wednesday. The right side of the
standard forecast error cone is along the I-65 corridor, so that
better turning axis could shift into any part of our forecast area.
Past tropical cyclone remnants moving into our area have been known
to put down some quick-moving weak tornadoes, so we will continue to
advertise that threat.

The bigger threat will be the tropical rainfall coming down in the
juicy airmass in place even through Thursday. Alberto will get
lifted north of the region Wednesday and absorbed into a broader
trough moving into the Midwest. The broad trough axis remains west
of our longitude at least to Thursday morning. The latest GFS and
even the 00Z Euro hang back one more lobe of vorticity through the
day Thursday, keeping our rain chance in place. The NAM is slower
with this feature, which if verified would be better rainwise, as it
will allow more of that tropical air to get out of here.

As for storm total rainfall...looking at values through Thursday, we
should see areal averages of 2 to 3 inches, especially within a
swath where the center of Alberto travels. Locally amounts up to 5
inches. With relatively low flash flood guidance for part of our
area, we will be watching for flash flood coming from multiple
training storms in this period. For now that swath remains west of I-
65, but again any eastward shifts in the actual track of Alberto
would shift those higher rain amounts eastward.

For Friday and beyond, model guidance has a couple of camps, with
the GEM and GEFS indicating the main trough axis holding to our east
and us drying out, save for perhaps one more bout of rain Friday
evening. The GFS and 00Z Euro both have a broader trough with more
impulses diving into and influencing our region, keeping rain
chances in. Some of the better performing long-range guidance is
giving 20-30 pops in this time frame, and this seems reasonable for
now, especially given this is the climo rain chances for this time
of year anyway.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Mon May 28 2018

Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop across central
Kentucky this afternoon/evening, generally south of SDF/LEX and in
the vicinity of BWG. Greatest coverage will be during peak heating
from around 20z to 00z. Expect ceilings to be between 3-4 kft and
could possibly lower into a MVFR stratus this evening/tonight
depending on how rain materializes. Light fog will be possible at
HNB and BWG but with extensive mid/high clouds expected, this should
be kept above IFR restrictions. Plan on a lull in precip activity
Tuesday through mid-afternoon before scattered to numerous
showers/storms move in with the remnants of Alberto. Best coverage
will be after this valid TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for KYZ023>031-034-038-045-046-053-054-061>065-
     070>078-081-082.

&&

Short Term...ZT
Long Term...ZT
Aviation...ZT

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